benjii

Indeed. If we accept it's lock-down now and ride it out as best as possible then, to some extent, that's the easy part. The real issue now is how to avoid material adverse societal damage and economic ruin and how to get effective vaccine to people ASAP. And by "people" we need to consider the whole world or this will decimate sub-saharan Africa and South America which, mercifully, seem to have largely escaped so far.

ISIS issued travel advice against going to Europe.

https://amp.ft.com/content/249daf9a-67c3-11ea-800d-da70cff6e4d3?__twitter_impression=true

He did, so it's quite an extreme set of circumstances, but it illustrates the danger to immuno-suppressed people, not just elderly folk.

Good luck!

It seems the “delay” phase actually applied to the government’s issuing of timely advice......

I don't know but he looks like the offspring of Chris Grayling and Ian Hislop.

[Francisco Garcia death: Spanish football coach dies from coronavirus aged 21] http://va.newsrepublic.net/al/FRFxxe

Indeed......

So you agree that he's useless? Finally!

True. Although to some extent the death rate is less of a concern than the R number. If there is a very high rate of infection which is not slowed or reduced and a lot of cases requiring intensive treatment within that infected cohort then there will be a significant number of indirectly caused deaths, as well as a huge economic and social impact.

What's your point? You might as well compare it with road traffic accidents or alien abductions. I decided to humour you by looking at your article and video and my observations are: - it doesn't add much to "main stream media" - Trump boner alert! - it seems fairly consistent with it, in terms of substance - if we must compare it with flu, it points out that: - there seems to be a much higher infection rate (anyone with an understanding of maths and exponential relationships will get the significance of this) - there is no vaccine - there is no reservoir of immune humans - the death rate seems higher than flu So, basically, it supports the proposition that this is a much more serious issue than seasonal flu. So, do you want to have another go at making your point because we're all buggered if we have any clue what it is? Better still, how about a period of internet self-isolation?

Wow! A journalist with a science degree! I'd probably listen to this guy: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_J_Ryan_(doctor) https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/move-quickly-speed-trumps-perfection-says-mike-ryan-irish-doctor-fighting-coronavirus-at-the-who-gpn95rhcf

https://www.marke****ch.com/story/coronavirus-vs-the-flu-its-just-like-other-viruses-and-we-should-go-about-our-normal-business-right-wrong-heres-why-2020-03-09 OK, link doesn't work due to swear filter and I can't be bothered to type it.

The deadline was based on an expectation of a certain amount of time in which to seek a deal. The discussions necessary to achieve that seem unlikely to happen. It would be logical to move the departure date back to ensure sufficient time to hold those discussions in line with the original plan.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/15/opinion/trump-coronavirus.html#click=https://t.co/u11ixyyDae

It's kind of up to us as well, seeing as we did want to do a deal and evidently that isn't going to happen.

Clearly absolutely zero prospect of a deal by our deadline in the current circumstances (not that there was much anyway).

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/367/6483/1169

Here is his wisdom on Covid-19: "There’s a very contagious virus, it’s incredible, it’s something we have tremendous control over I think very importantly the young people have good health, and groups of people just are not strongly affected, elderly people that are not well or not well in certain respects are uh really a very dangerous group we have to watch them we have to protect them very much we have to really watch over them and protect them, they are very vulnerable." - 03/15 in WH briefing. It's reassuring to know we have people like this in charge.

Simple modelling suggests that genuine isolation makes a significant difference: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

It's the old people, by and large, who will overwhelm the NHS. That's why one would try to protect them, as a category of people and it's why they are a threat to the country. Personally, I don't see the real merit in isolating one age group though: seems to me that we should be doing a lot more at this stage. But that's the thinking.

Interesting simulations: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/ Begs the question what exactly the government is trying to do to achieve "delay" when social distancing seems highly effective in flattening the curve.

https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/15/epidemiologist-britain-herd-immunity-coronavirus-covid-19?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_gu&utm_medium=&utm_source=Twitter&__twitter_impression=true Epidemiologist who thought reports of UK approach were a joke....