John B

You make an interesting point but for those who have not voted there are a significant number who will change their vote if other Referendums around the world are anything to go by they return to the status quo that is why the odds at the bookmakers dont support out despite the polls apparently but by this time next week we will know and hopefully have a new manager. I agree with your posts about Wanyama he has done well for us and fully deserves a move to CL football

I find this interesting http://www.politico.eu/article/eu-referendum-look-before-you-leap-norways-pm-tells-brexiteers/

I understand you frustration I am sick of hearing about £350m a week because it is a claim repeated endlessly in Vote Leave’s campaign material for our Eu contribution The figure simply comes from taking Britain’s gross annual contribution to the EU’s finances and dividing it by 52. That gross figure was £18.3bn in 2014/15, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), which works out at just under £352m a week. But just looking at the gross contribution doesn’t tell the whole story, because we get about half of the money back. About half of this £9bn or so is returned via the rebate negotiated by Margaret Thatcher in 1984, and the rest comes in the form of payments to Britain from various EU pots like the European Agriculture Fund for Rural Development. Although the Washington posts 508 million for the population of the EU it is does not mention the size of the single market which as you say contains us at present The single market also includes Switzerland Norway Iceland and possibly Croatia in the future they have a population of about 19m whilst our population is 65m So without us the single market will have about 460 million consumers quite a sizeable non tariff market

Just one though Wes here are some more The view from the Washington Post: 'Countries usually don’t knowingly commit economic suicide, but in Britain, millions seem ready to give it a try. On June 23, the United Kingdom will vote to decide whether to quit the European Union, the 28-nation economic bloc with a population of 508 million and a gross domestic product of almost $17 trillion. Let’s not be coy: Leaving the E.U. would be an act of national insanity.' https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/britain-flirts-with-economic-insanity/2016/05/01/bb8d7a4a-0e1f-11e6-bfa1-4efa856caf2a_story.html The view from the Financial Times There will be a shock to the economy after BREXIT … but people are underestimating the severity of the shock The view from the Economist Simon Wren Lewis Among everyone and everything I read at the moment there is a mixture of disbelief and despair over the now distinct possibility that the UK will vote for Brexit. Obviously that is partly because I tend to read other economists, and as Chris Giles notes economists are virtually united in believing Brexit will be bad for the economy. (If you cannot access the FT, read Paul Johnson.) But it is also because there is a clear educational divide in support for Brexit, and I suspect most of what I read comes from one side of that divide. The only other event that I can imagine causing an equal degree of unanimous disbelief and despair would be if Trump looked like becoming President. There is disbelief because it makes no sense. Of course there is a minority who hate the idea of sharing sovereignty, and another minority that really hate immigrants. But these two groups combined would not be enough to win a referendum. Instead we have a much larger group that are concerned about immigration, but their concern appears to be not worth very much to them. This was something I noted some time ago, but it seems to be a robust result: in a recent ComRes poll 68% say they would not be happy to lose any income to secure less immigration (perhaps because they believe less immigration will raise their income). It makes no sense because economists are as sure as they ever are that people will on average be worse off with Brexit. But a large section of the population have either not got the memo or have ignored it. This will be an important point when it comes to what happens after Brexit: for many Brexit will have been a vote to control immigration, but only because a lot of those same people think that immigration can be controlled without making them worse off. In other words it will not be a clear mandate for voting against a Norway/Switzerland option, because anything else will make people worse off (as most MPs know). There is despair because economists and others who think Brexit will make people worse off have no way of getting their message across to those that really need that information. I know Gove has said he is fed up with experts, but I’m not convinced most people are (for reasons given here and reiterated here). But writing articles in the Guardian or letters to the Times will not get through to those we need to hear the message (see final chart here). It is why I wrote this. For academic economists I think it is part of a general problem that the media are losing interest in what we think, which is why I wrote this for the Royal Economic Society newsletter. Whether we do or do not leave the EU, I hope one result of this referendum will be that otherwise sensible people will stop saying that our tabloid press is not that much of a problem. It might not be if our broadcast media were brave enough to report facts, but instead it is obsessed with balance, as well as being heavily influenced by what some tabloids say. How else can you account for 58% of people thinking that Turkey is likely to join the EU within ten years, which in reality is close to a zero probability event. Democracy can become dangerous when a few people have so much control over the means of information.

Agree I dont understand why Roy takes five strikers to France yet only starts with one especially against Wales But a good way to finish after the disappointment of a late goal on Saturday Rooney is still a very good player maybe this tournament will confirm it I think he is one of the best players England has produced in the last forty or so years maybe even longer

I hope Jo Cox survives OK but it is not surprising if this sort of thing is allowed to happen http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/16/farage-poster-enoch-powell-rivers-of-blood-racism-ukip-european-union I can understand peoples concerns for the future with Globalization and Austerity but this sort of thing makes things worse

So your attitude is that it does not matter what is done to the country economically or socially it is OK as you can get them out. But what happens if you cant vote them out surely it is a lot better not have them in the first place.

You dont have to be an MP to be in the Government he can go to the House of Lords Michael Crick ✔ @MichaelLCrick Farage friend says he's been approached by Boris camp about job in Johnson govt & place in Lords to avoid fighting possible Thanet by-elect So you are happy for Boris Farage Gove IDS Patel Grayling to lead the country after BREXIT and it does not worry you If GDP falls on exit - would you want the Govt to borrow, tax or cut spending? If it is tax or cut spending what would you like taxed or what service cut ? GDP has fallen since the referendum started by the way

I agree with you it will never happen but they are trying to send a message that the economy is likely to be smaller after Brexit if GDP does fall and go into recession what would you do put up taxes cut services or borrow. But funnily most of the 57 have been voting for similar measures in Osborne's 8 or 9 Budgets since 2010 By the way how do you feel about a Boris Farage Gove IDS Patel Grayling led Government after BREXIT pretty right wing is that OK with you

We did not join the Euro because it was too risky we should not leave the EU because it is too risky. The Internet was not around in 1990 when we joined the ERM but the only things I remember is that we went in at a too high value and a speculator called Soros made billions like speculators on Brexit will make billions which will probably come from you and me apparently it cost us £12 per person on leaving the ERM in 1992 fully expect it to cost us a lot more to leave the EU. It already has with the pound and FTSE falling

I agree I just think Remain is a lost cause BREXIT is based on fear lies nothing really positive and false statistics generated mostly by the press and the very right wing of the Tory Party although the Remain Tories have piled in with many over the top quotes too I hate to think of the consequences of more unemployment falling living standards and public investment which will eventually be laid on the doors of the EU. I have always hated the Tories because all they are for are the Tory Party and not for the country but they may have gone too far this time I really hope I am wrong

I dont think it anything to do with trust it is the analysis the organisation is putting forward which is key. BREXIT is going to cause the £ to fall Duckhunter says it will raise again which is probably true but to what levels nobody knows In the meantime there is uncertainty as the FTSE drops , investment drops, unemployment goes up GDP goes down ,taxes goes up standard of living goes down. Many on here want reduced immigration that is their choice but that entails having a smaller economy I just cannot see that being wrong. I don’t want a smaller economy I want a bigger economy where every body becomes wealthier and has public services when things go wrong and they become sick and old. Especially as people are living longer these days we need more government money to pay for pensions healthcare and suchlike We currently do have an economy which is growing but the average working person is not seeing much benefit my wife has just had a 1% pay rise after not having a rise for sometime while the top 5% have had massive pay rises this is the fault of the Tory Government not the EU. Not enough houses schools and hospitals have been built so any shortages in this area are blamed on immigration which is needed to fill holes as our economy .grows without them as somebody has already mentioned our economy would be smaller today We need to invest in our country to go forward as the world changes and it seems best to do so in cooperation with other countries and not in competition to see who can pay the least I just feel remaining in the EU is the best approach as opposed to something maybe alright on the night. If the Leave Campaign could put up a fully costed proposal of how much it is going to cost to exit the EU how we would trade what tariffs business would have to pay and a realistic timetable to achieve this we would be in a better situation to chose but we are only given promises not commitments so I am remaining

So why do the IMF Treasury BOE OECD IMF IFS and most economists think you are wrong I do agree there are currency fluctuations but what is being talked about is a run on Sterling wonder how that will affect our transfer dealings with the rest of the world and the cost of going to Euro League games But we see what happens only two weeks to go and then some football interesting post about RK who comes out a bit of a lazy git unlike Poch who went up to Manchester I believe to give support to the youngsters when he was here

I know Farage is not bothered if the pound falls as he is pretty wealthy but what about you if food and oil costs say 15% more would you be happy and would you be happy if this led to inflation and higher interest rates and less disposable income to spend on more expensive imported goods. I would have thought foreign investment for jobs will reduce causing unemployment presently 48% of investment is foreign apparently but the rich with large amount of savings will earn more because of the increased interest rates but not so the poor.

You mean something like this from IPSO MORI The public have a number of significant misperceptions about the EU and how it affects life in the UK, new research by UK in a Changing Europe and Ipsos MORI shows. We get some things right, but we’re more often very wrong on some of the key issues fundamental to the debate – including immigration, Britain’s contribution to the EU budget, the amount of Child Benefit that goes abroad and investment into the UK. Some of the key things we get wrong (and right) are: 1) EU immigrants: we massively overestimate how many EU-born people now live in the UK. On average we think EU citizens make up 15% of the total UK population (which would be around 10.5m people), when in reality it’s 5%1 (around 3.5m people). Those who intend to vote to leave overestimate EU immigration more: they think 20% of the UK population are EU immigrants, compared with the average guess of 10% among those who intend to vote “remain”. 2) Proportion of immigrants who were born in another EU country: but at the same time we underestimate the proportion of all immigrants who were born in the EU. The average person guesses that a quarter (25%) of all immigrants were born in another EU member state, when the reality is 37%2. This suggests that it’s immigration as a whole that we overestimate, rather than EU-specific immigration (as we’ve seen in previous studies). 3) Barmaid cleavages and other regulations from the EU: The EU doesn’t always get credit for some of our laws they’re responsible for – like statutory holiday (37% correctly guessed) and two year guarantees on products (21% correctly guessed). On the other hand, we’re generally pretty good at spotting more ridiculous “Euro-myths”, but still 1 in 7 of us (15%) believe at least one Euro-myth – including bans on barmaids showing too much cleavage and forcibly renaming the snack “Bombay Mix” to “Mumbai Mix” (neither of which are real EU laws3). But EU law is complex– it’s no wonder there’s confusion. A quarter (24%) of us think bananas that are “too bendy” are banned from being imported into the UK. This is a long-standing favourite used as an example of excessive EU bureaucracy - most recently re-surfacing from Boris Johnson4. But is it a Euro-myth? Yes and no: the EU does have a regulation to stop malformed bananas being imported into the UK, but it’s a stretch to say the EU’s banned “bendy” bananas. 4) How much the UK pays in: The majority of us (67%) correctly say the UK annually pays more into the EU’s budget than it gets back - but we overestimate how much we pay compared with other countries. 84% of us put Britain in the top 3 contributors to the EU’s c.€140bn annual budget (the same proportion that picks Germany as a top contributor) and nearly a quarter of us (23%) think the UK is the single top contributor to the EU. In reality, Germany paid in twice as much as us in 2014 (21% of total EU income), followed by France (16%) then Italy (12%), with the UK in fourth place (11%)5. 5) How much the UK directly gets back: the majority of us are also correct that we get less back than other large countries. Three in five correctly (58%) rank the UK as one of the lower gross recipients from the EU budget: in 2014, the UK received less than other Western European countries like Germany, Italy, Spain and France6. 6) Child Benefit: we massively overestimate the proportion of Child Benefit awards given to families in other European countries. The actual proportion of UK Child Benefit awards going on children living abroad in Europe is 0.3%7, but 14% of us think that 30% of UK Child Benefit goes to children abroad and 23% of us think 13% does. This means that nearly 4 in 10 of us think the number of children in EU countries receiving Child Benefit from the UK is 40 to 100 times the actual level. 7) EU democracy: only 6 in 10 know that members of the European Parliament (MEPs) are elected by the citizens of each member state. One in five (18%) think that MEPs are not elected and a quarter (25%) say they don’t know whether they are or not. Who our MEPs are: Unsurprisingly then, just 5% can correctly name at least one of the MEPs representing their region. This is much lower than the number who can name their local MP (41%). 9) The EU’s administration bill: we massively overestimate how much of the EU’s budget is spent on administration. The average guess is that 27% of the overall budget is spent on staff, admin and maintenance costs, when in reality it’s 6%8. If this estimate were accurate the EU would be spending €38.5bn on admin each year, instead of €8.5bn. 10) Inward investment from EU countries: we underestimate how much investment into the UK comes from EU countries. The average guess is that they contribute 30% of total investment into the UK, when it actually makes up almost half (48%). This perception gap is mirrored by an overestimation of investment from China, which people think makes up 19% of inward investment but actually only accounts for 1%9. The Perils of Predictions The survey also asked people to make a series of predictions around the referendum. Despite the fairly even race in the polls and the negative views towards many aspects of the EU seen in this survey, people are twice as likely to predict that we will vote to remain in the EU than to leave: 51% say that Britain will vote to remain and only 23% say we’ll vote to leave. The public are also in line with the bookies on likely turnout levels: on average, we think the turnout will be 60%, when bookies’ odds imply a likely turnout of c63-64%. But our predictions on the impact of a leave vote highlights the main challenge for the Remain campaign. We are pretty certain that leaving will reduce immigration (63% believe that). But while we are nearly as certain that it will also reduce investment from EU countries (57% believe that), only 25% of us think it will reduce our own living standards, with 13% thinking it will increase them and the remainder saying it will make no difference or they don’t know. Bobby Duffy, Managing Director of Ipsos MORI Social Research Institute, said: “The public have been calling for the “facts” to help them make up their minds on how to vote – but this survey shows that many of us are still very shaky on fundamental aspects of our relationship with the EU. This is not surprising, given that the facts on the EU are often complex and contested. In that messy and heated context, these misperceptions are more of an indicator of what’s worrying us than a careful assessment of the evidence – that’s why we’re most wrong on things like immigration, benefit payments going abroad and what the EU spends on bureaucracy. But the survey also points to some key communication challenges and opportunities for the campaigns. In particular, it seems that while the Remain camp may be winning on the macro-economic case, people are not convinced this will have any impact on their own standard of living. So, despite the Remain campaign’s focus on us each being £4,300 worse off if we leave, we’re not making the connection or not believing it. “Project fear” will be much less effective if we think it’s only happening to someone else.” Professor Anand Menon, Director of the UK in a Changing Europe Initiative and Professor of European Politics and Foreign Affairs at King's College London, said: “There are obviously still high levels of ignorance about the EU, which is troubling so close to the referendum. However, it is not so surprising, given the lack of accurate information provided to the public, as well as the mistruths, exaggerations, and scaremongering that have taken place during this campaign. It’s now more imperative than ever that the public can be provided with as much factual information about the EU as possible before they cast their vote.”

NO ITS NOT all these posters cannot possibly be wrong with their clear and incisive analysis dismissing reasoned and well researched reporting by the world's top economists politicians and business people. by the way I found this ironic 'The EU referendum hasn’t been short of its absurdities, but Vote Leave’s event at the DCS distribution centre in Stratford-on-Avon must be a strong contender for the most surreal. Boris, Michael Gove and Gisela Stuart were all guests of warehouse owner Denys C Shortt, who has declared himself a strong supporter of Vote Leave. Shortt introduced the event by telling his 150 or so employees that he was concerned about high levels of immigration and appeared surprised to be greeted with only lukewarm applause. He shouldn’t have been. Stratford has extremely low levels of unemployment and he struggles to get any Brits to work for him at the wages he is prepared to offer. So many of his staff are Polish immigrants that signs throughout the warehouse are written in both Polish and English. The only sign that wasn’t written in Polish was the one saying “Smile Please”' A common situation in lots of towns in the Southern half of England where unemployment is low many jobs are filled by EU citizens as they are the only ones to apply I know my local post office is run very efficiently by a couple of charming Polish ladies one an ex bank clerk the other an ex air hostess

I think he is saying something which is quite obvious to people with common sense we wont be in the single market if we leave the EU But in two weeks we will be able to start seeing who is right on this subject

Where do I find this suggestion because it seems bollix to me What about free movement of our citizens What about other countries will they not want it I expect this No single market access for UK after Brexit, Wolfgang Schäuble says In Der Spiegel interview German finance minister rules out Britain’s chances of enjoying bloc benefits from outside EU But your suggestion would be good There are so many Foreign Companies / Banks that are going to leave or not come at all that unemployment is going to rise. Look at Toyota in Derby the least profitable factory of theirs in the world is not going to survive surely if costs go up say 10% caused by falling pound possible tariffs extra costs for administration dealing with the single market. I really am really worried about the ramifications for you and me and our families of BREXIT that I am not sleeping that well and on here at 6am but I do understand your concerns which do not have easy solutions without causing major distress to many people. Saw this tweet which I think is interesting from Boris' ex comms @Guto_Harri 'other than terror attack no bigger threat to London Just look at this http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/ Managing the world's population is going to be difficult with co-operation With all the police have to deal with on the terror front in France hooligans are going to be dealt with pretty severely I would reckon what do you think

I have no idea what you are talking about Are you not worried about your standard of living being reduced and friends and relations losing their jobs? I certainly am

Why not decide on facts what do you and others think of this http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/paul-johnson-leavers-may-not-like-economists-but-we-are-right-about-brexit-a3267601.html

It is a referendum not a series of debates and Cameron was reaching out to undecided voters and did well on the economy which will mean a few more remain votes in the future Farage appeals to people with fixed ideas and the inability to question what he is saying I know Cameron is a serial liar but people like you seem to vote for him without questioning him and his motives Numerous believed that he could reduce immigration to 100000 which was obviously impossible he also peddled lies that the economy was trashed by Labour but a bit of investigation shows that it was the Global Banking crash and who knows how much more money is going into the NHS

Think remain will win 1/3 at Paddy Power at the moment Often in Referendums people vote for the status quo at the last moment apparently

I do hope Koeman really performs badly at Everton and does not take any Saints players. When he came here we were on the way up unlike Everton and had a good squad of players

I think he has