shurlock

A prediction can be wrong but how can it be a lie?

Thanks for asking Les. He’s a bit tired but is in surprisingly good spirits (he has very thick-skin unlike most Brexiteers). He stuck with Labour, so it’s hardly a personal indictment (his politics on Brexit are closer to those of LibDems). He’s confident that the result will push Corbyn to ditch the constructive ambiguity and by not doing a Campbell he has more chance to influence that policy shift. Think he did Radio 5 earlier today and has been on Sky, LBC etc since the elections. HTH

Les, my man on the inside, any more news on John Petley’s explosive revelations about how Chequers came about? They got you quite excited at the time

Agree. As I say I don’t think it would force him to pull out but critically it might damage his chances with MPs. I doubt it will have any impact on the rank-and-file. It’s very unlikely that two hard Brexiteers make it to the second stage, so if he does go through, he’ll be the only candidate who the swivels can get behind and so will readily overlook his transgressions. Just look at the state of Les, LD and Nolan.

Possible if you mean he’d have to pull out but I doubt it - perversely I reckon it might boost his support among Tory grassroots. Clearly MPs might think twice now and switch their support to Raab or another hard Brexiteer which would be hilarious.

https://www.ft.com/content/e9740f30-8169-11e9-b592-5fe435b57a3b

No Les. Poll of poll data is methodologically more robust and yes it shows remain has a lead - that is ultimately the question you were interested in when citing Ashcroft's poll data. Unlike you some of us have the intelligence and integrity to qualify our statements and acknowledge where margins are small - something you didn't do when you creamed yourself over Lord Ashcroft's poll results which also involve small(er) margins. Anyway crack on pal - it's not in my interest to disabuse you of your idiocy or self-deception in case you realise you're playing with fire and start behaving rationally. You are my useful idiot after all

At the very least, you can say that 54% think that remaining in the EU or May's deal are the best outcomes. So even on the least generous definition (if you're a remainer), there is no majority for no deal. Leaving aside the don't knows (4%), only 27% per cent think no deal is the best outcome while 15% want to leave the EU with a different deal from the one Theresa May negotiated. As you say, it doesn't follow that all of the 15% would switch to no deal if the UK couldn't secure their preferred outcome of a different deal. https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/what-do-you-think-would-be-the-best-outcome-from-the-brexit-process/

Lord Ashcroft's analysis -a self-funded or unknown funded poll per Nat Cen- is principally about what the euro elections mean for party affiliation going forward. Of course, there is a much simpler way to gauge support for remain and leave and that's to directly examine aggregated poll of poll data. That data shows that remain is currently outperforming leave, though ultimately the margins continue to be very small. Hope that helps pal. https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/if-there-was-a-referendum-on-britains-membership-of-the-eu-how-would-you-vote-2/ https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/if-a-second-eu-referendum-were-held-today-how-would-you-vote/ https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/in-highsight-do-you-think-britain-was-right-or-wrong-to-vote-to-leave-the-eu/ To repeat, the numbers don't support a no deal Brexit. As such please do vote for a 'solid Brexiteer' to quote your charming little euphemism. I will sit back and enjoy the ride. You are now officially my useful idiot Les. #usefulidiot

Southgate has stuck with the likes of Delph and Lingard because they were part of the successful WC squad. Once managers have settled on a squad, especially ahead of tournament football, they tend to be quite conservative. Talk about victims and wet fannies on here.

Keep telling yourself that pal. There is other methodologically more straightforward evidence suggesting quite the opposite. Either way, the margins between remain and leave continue to be painfully narrow; what is clear, however, is that there is limited support for your preferred WTO/No Deal Brexit. It must be hard to wake up and smell the coffee. As Jeremy Hunt acknowledged today it would be political suicidal for the Conservatives to go down that route. I hope you do the right thing in the leadership contest

Les it was only a few percentage points up on Farage and UKIP’s vote share in 2014 (and moderately below expectations). This despite the fact that Farage couldn’t have dreamed up a more favourable alignment of the stars. Ever. Another interpretation therefore is that he’s basically maxed out around a third, perhaps slightly higher as I’m feeling generous pal. Let’s also see how the Brexit Party consolidates it’s progress and keeps its rabble of supporters together which will require producing a manifesto at some point and threading the needle between George Galloway and Anne Widdicombe.

Weston Super Mare in fine form again.

Christ on crutches. I thought such manoeuvrings are designed to be vote winners, not losers. As usual, you’re all over the place. The change in stance had much more to do with the philosophy of John Denham and his views (right or wrong) on how to defeat extremism (I used to know him quite well) who wanted a fresh start in community relations and clean break with his predecessor, Hazel Blears in this regard.

Money well spent in Ralph’s preferred 4-2-2-2. With such a narrow setup in the defensive and attacking middle of the park, you need fullbacks who can get up and down the pitch which will take its toll over the season. Fresh legs in the position are a must. This is a decent, if verbose write-up of Ralph’s tactics - what stands out, revealed by its title “playing without wings” is how narrow Ralph’s teams can be without decent fullbacks. https://soccertofootball.com/rb-leipzig-playing-without-wings/

Sonia Purnell’s bio is also very good.

Raab is dim but he’s dogmatic, so I can see why he would appeal to nutters like you. His book with Liz Truss was appallingly researched.

True. He has a certain romantic, anti-utilitarian view of the world that would mesh well with some departments e.g. Defra but appear outdated in others e.g. DoE.

Very interesting insight.

I didn’t realise Kenyan nationals could vote pal.

Agree Hunt is terrible and like Javid says whatever he needs to say to be popular. Calling the EU a Soviet Prison, as Foreign Secretary was among, if not, the most obnoxious pandering to the Tory base we’ve seen over the past three years. There’s something ironic about pleading to the party not to lurch to the right when he’s contributed so much to the febrile, swivel-eyed atmosphere. Out of the candidates who can claim to be true Brexiteers, Gove is probably the best or least worst (he still has plenty of faults). He’s already promised to implement the Costa amendent and introduce free citizenship for EU nationals if he becomes PM, though that might just be clever politics. You’re closer to environmental issues than I am but he appears to have been a successful Defra SoS and has fessed up to the complexities of leaving the EU in a way that you’d never hear from the mediocre Raab or the unserious Johnson.

I see the usual snowflakes never get this upset when repeated jokes are made about Diane Abbott’s appearance. I wonder why that is

Didn’t realise there was another Rees Mogg. Annunziata Rees Mogg looks like Emily Blunt if she ran out of veins to shoot up in.

Farage in No.10? Trying to outdo Guided Missile in batsh*t mental predictions?

Unless its a decisive winning margin. Which is unlikely. Compromise is the only way out of this mess. The media stoking up the fence-sitting narrative of the two main parties doesn't help.