Lallana's Left Peg
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Everything posted by Lallana's Left Peg
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Two points: 1. Aside from the Reading goal, I'll somewhat fondly remember him for being so keen to impress when he came on you can guarantee he'll over commit to tracking down the player with the ball then when they push it past him he'll blatantly foul them to gain the easiest yellow card the Ref would have to give in any game. 2. Just speculating, but are we seeing a softening from Cortese when it comes to dealing with players who no longer have a future at the club? Last year we had loads of players who didn't have a sniff of first team football yet we hung onto them all amid suggestions that we either insisted on a transfer fee for them or wanted their wages paid in full in any loan arrangement. This summer in addition to the release of several players out of contract Chaplow and now De Ridder have left the club despite having a year left on their contract. Chaplow's was done as he requested a fresh start after a family circumstance, but the De Ridder one now as well suggests to me we may well be attempting to get rid of more salary - maybe in a bid to release space for another big signing?
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I've looked into it a bit more and unsustainable is probably misleading - perhaps very risky is a better way to put it. Based on some sensible interpretation of the figures that are out there. What we know: 1. The 6-monthly accounts for Saints showed revenue of £33m, a profit of £1m, and a wage to turnover ratio of 59%: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-2290117/Southampton-post-900-000-profit-promotion-Premier-League.html What has happened since then: 1. Saints finished 14th in the Premier League and received £43m from the Premier League over the course of the season. Speculating that the half yearly accounts can be extrapolated across the course of the season that would mean a turnover of £66m, a profit of £2m, and a wage bill of £39m. Realistically I don't think we made a profit last season at all but I can only use the 6 monthly figures and extrapolate them across the year. 2. New contracts have been given to Artur Boruc, Rickie Lambert, Kelvin Davis, Morgan Schneiderlin, Luke Shaw, and Jason Puncheon. I think it would be fair to assume that all but Boruc (signed originally on a 1 year deal) and Davis (signed for loyalty and continuity) would be on better terms (vastly so in the case of Schneiderlin and Shaw). I also think it would be fair to assume that many of the younger players (which is the majority of our squad) have wage increases built into their contract as that is quite normal - however, it would be also fair to assume the released players were earning wages which would 'cancel out' that net gain. So conservatively I would suggest our wage bill from that activity alone has a net increase of £100k a week. That would mean an increase in the wage bill of around £5m a year, increasing our wages to £44m. 3. We've also signed Dejan Lovren and Victor Wanyama for a suggested combined fee of £20m. Taking into account their wages (another conservative estimate of £40k a week each) that is another increase of £4.2m a year to the wage bill. That takes wages to £49m a year and in the accounts their transfer fees are spread over the period of their contract so that is £5m a year additional cost that needs to be accounted for. 4. The new TV deal suggest each club on average will receive £25m more. So using the above figures and making assumptions that other revenues and costs stay the same (I've got no fair basis to change them) that leaves us with revenues next season of £90m, costs of £79m (£64m + £5m + £4.2m + £5m), and a profit of £11m. Wage to turnover ratio of 60% again. But then Damiao. If the fee of £22m is correct and I made the assumption he signed a 4 year deal on £60k a week, that is a yearly cost of £8.6m on the accounts. That basically eats all but £2m of the profit from the bumper new TV deal and it is invested in a single player. With no other clear methods for us to increase revenues other than hiking the cost to consumers of existing channels we're placing all our eggs in one basket. Plus as I've already stated I'm concerned that we'd ever be able to sell him for more than we purchased him, and it does leave any money left in the coffers for anything else without moving players around - unless of course we revert back to being a club that is supported from the owners. People can probably pick holes in the above but breaking it down like that shows how we'd be allocating nearly 10% of projected revenue to a single player in our squad and I think that is very dangerous for a club at our level.
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If true, it would be a staggering amount of money for us to spend on a player and not one I'd be entirely comfortable with. He'd have to be an absolute home-run smash hit for us to ever be able to sell him for more than we purchased him for, so for that reason be brings lots of risks. Not to mention that €26m is a massively unsustainable figure for us to pay on a single player anyway. Exciting but it is a bit crazy.
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Fox can still contribute, he has been a part of some good team performances in the league. Even if he has struggled at times, it isn't through a lack of effort. As a supporter I find it hard to criticise any player if they are putting in the effort - at the end of the day they are only as good as they can be. There may be times when I moan during the game as I get caught up in the moment but ultimately I think it is unfair to tag him as a villain. He has hardly been purposefully detrimental to the team. Plus I remember him battling a groin problem for the last third of the Championship promotion season and soldiering on when it may have been easier to rest. As I grow older I've found a shift in my tolerance and view on players. Just because someone may struggle does not mean they need grief - it is hardly their fault they are put in the position they are. Though it is probably natural for supporters to single out people no matter what the level I suppose.
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Valencia fans are saying the Soldado deal will cover their debts for this season, and his replacement is apparently Postiga who won't cost much at all. Valencia are still trying to trim the squad though, so I would still expect to see lots of movement from them in the transfer market. Their fans have reacted to the news that we may bid again with a little bemusement and shock. They feel he is their best player, worth more than €20m, and there would be lots of fan backlash if he went. However, they also feel that if Saints doubled his salary he'd be off and Valencia would just need to get as much as they can for him in that instance. I have no idea how much Banega earns and speculative efforts on the internet suggest a range of figures, however it is fair to say that Valencia don't pay players low wages. On that assumption I don't think we'd be doubling his wages, and if we were going to spend lots of money on another player it should really ought to be a striker.
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Fans' team match at West Brom - Saturday 17th August
Lallana's Left Peg replied to stevegrant's topic in The Saints
I'll need to double check with Mark whether or not he is coming, but I'm definitely in as long as I can get a West Brom ticket when they go on general sale (should be ok but with it being the first away game of the season and the new signings on display you never know). -
Just checked their official website its stated that he was rested due to muscle pain, so I wouldn't read too much into it yet.
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PRE-SEASON: Southampton vs Beşiktaş - (17:30 BST)
Lallana's Left Peg replied to Saint-Armstrong's topic in The Saints
Just a pre-season game so not worthwhile commenting on individuals in my opinion but a few things to note about the team as a whole: 1. Our distribution from the back still isn't good enough. I don't know if it is a player quality issue (either passing from defenders or movement from midfielders) but it doesn't seem too hard to defend against. 2. I still don't think we move the ball anywhere near quick enough in the final third when we win it back high up the pitch. I don't know if it is a confidence issue or some of the players just aren't quick enough carrying the ball. 3. Our opponents were comfortably our equals today but they tired quickly in the final 20mins and our lads looked like they had plenty left in the tank. I think we made more subs than them but they start their season the same weekend we do and we looked miles fitter than them. Game was quite niggly for a friendly, but always fun to see a bit of aggro on the pitch. Particularly enjoyed Puncheon getting clattered and shoved in his face, only for him to follow it up 2mins later by completely taking out said player. Plus was fun seeing the reaction of the Turkish midfielder when he tried to square up to Wanyama -
Not keen on him. Don't think he is particularly better than what we've got and don't see the point buying players on that basis.
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Well it might just be me but I am far happier with a slow progress that consists of 2-3 targeted signings each summer complimented with players from our Academy who may be ready to contribute. It feels more sustainable in the long-run (both financially and in terms of making progress that can be maintained) plus I feel strongly we need to retain our identity as a club which not only produces good youngsters but gives them a chance. We've seen what happens when we spend a lot of money on lots of players for short-term progress - we've made a lot of progress but there is a high turnover with players which can bring many issues. It's positive that the club is in such a position now where it feels it can attain primary targets. It would take a massive amount of money to break the Top 6 right now. The only two negatives to this slower approach are there is no way we can be Top 6 this season (so a delta exists between public statements and realistic ambitions) and slower progress leaves us more exposed to losing our best players - but we have to trust Cortese on this one as in the last 6 months we've signed our most prized assets (Schniederlin and Shaw) to 4 and 5 year contracts respectively. Of course it doesn't mean they won't leave, but it does provide ore security than either going into this season with only 12 months left on their contract.
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Chambers is a very versatile player. I've seen him play all over the park for the u18's, but more commonly as a right winger. At one stage two seasons ago they were also trialling him as a centre-half and I even think he played a few games next to big Jaidi. It seems it is right-back that is the position he is going to settle on, and he has also shot up in height over the past few years a well. I am glad he is getting promoted, I think it would be good if we promote at least one player per summer to the first team squad. The standard will rise and will always get harder, but I am very happy he will get his chance to be back-up rather than us buy a player for the role.
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You could argue that purchasing one makes the need to sign the other less urgent thus it would be very hard to prioritise. But if I had to guess at the way the club is thinking and from all of the transfer rumours, I think it is clear that Pochettino wants one of those fashionable mobile big men up front and I suspect we'll end up with a striker one way or another.
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PRE-SEASON: Schalke 04 vs Southampton - (18:00 KO)
Lallana's Left Peg replied to Saint-Armstrong's topic in The Saints
I agree with what by and large what you are saying. For me supporters have a real difficulty distinguishing between what a player / team is capable of in a 'one-off' performance and whether or not it is something that can be maintained over the course of a 10 month season. The vast majority of our players have shown they can play very well at this level. We've had some fantastic performances last season. But the key at this level is consistency, and that is our big weakness. It is also the thing that will most distinguish where you finish in that 8th - 16th area of the table in my opinion. The positive is that at this level we are still learning, and most of our team are young - you'd like to think they'd have a better chance of finding that consistency than teams / players with the opposite characteristics - but it is no guarantee. You look at West Ham and at a talent level you'd never want to swap squads. Not in a million years. But last season they were so comfortable and had so much experience they were always safe. Saints need to marry their talent level with that sort of mentality. I hope it comes with experience and it develops. But there are no guarantees, as I say. We need to accept that all players have areas they can improve, and not be shocked if they can't improve them - if every player improved, it would be a peculiar old game. However, I am positive around the team, and am very excited for the future. But I am very pragmatic and think we need to be aware that getting better at this level is never a guarantee - although I do think we have as a good a chance as any other team of improving for reason already stated. -
PRE-SEASON: Schalke 04 vs Southampton - (18:00 KO)
Lallana's Left Peg replied to Saint-Armstrong's topic in The Saints
The ability of Saints fans to over-react never disappoints. I appreciate it is probably the same for all teams but it doesn't make it any less frustrating when you see teenagers all over twitter declaring it the end of the world when we concede a goal. I even saw one declare Lambert may be finished based on his miss in the second half. I can see why some of our resident Saintsweb characters like to poke fun at people at times like this. It would be more fun that trying to reason with these idiots. At the end of the day not only is it a pre-season friendly for which none of us have absolutely no idea what Pochettino wanted to work on or get out of the game, lets also remember that aside from the new players our existing players aren't going to come back from a summer break and be completely different players. Whats that? People want to point out that Fox may not be up to it? Bloody hell - there was me thinking he'd go away for the summer and come back and play like Roberto Carlos. The construct of the team is still very much what we saw last season - and why would it be any different anyway. It is the same group of players. We're a confidence team prone to lapses in concentration and a lack of leadership across the pitch. It is hard to address that unless you replace all the players but football doesn't work like that. We show a lot of promise but much of that will only be fulfilled with experience - we won't become miles better after a pre-season. It won't happen overnight. There was no lack of effort even considering it is a pre-season friendly, and our opposition were quality. Mistakes for goals are frustrating but it happens. I'd be more concerned if any player was hiding from the ball at 2-0 down but I didn't see that. Onwards and upwards. -
I notice we've been training this morning, again ahead of a game tonight. I know Pochettino is a fan of the double-session during a regular season, so pre-season training must be very tough but I've never seen clubs train the same day as a pre-season game before. Given the standard of opposition in Spain I didn't think much of it but we're playing Champions League calibre opposition this evening and we've just spent the morning training So tonight I wouldn't expect much of a result as it seems the game is being used as a different method of improving fitness more than anything else - I bet the players legs are feeling very heavy right now. In the wider context though, do we really have the squad depth to be able to absorb the inevitable tiredness and fatigue that will creep in during the second half of the season? I know some clubs approach pre-season training in a way that is designed to get the player in a shape where their fitness improves over the course of the season, but the work we're doing suggests to me that we're getting the players very sharp for the start of the season with the risk that as it wears on we're more exposed to tiredness and fatigue.
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Chambers hasn't looked too bad at all to me, be a shame if he lost opportunities because of a new signing in that part of the pitch. That said, I should really reserve judgement once we know who the player is and whether he actually signs.
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Does not strike me as a player who can play as a lone striker up front, both in terms of style and presence. Interesting player but I can't see where he would naturally fit in.
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Positivity. Blind optimism or great things happening?
Lallana's Left Peg replied to georgeweahscousin's topic in The Saints
As long as the club is on an upwards trajectory we should all feel perfectly entitled to feel very positive and excited for the future. Where there is a wide spectrum of opinions is where this progress will stop in terms of league standing. Even with considerable resources, it will be very hard to break into the Top 6. it's not just about having a team who are good enough to perform against the best, it is having the consistency to perform over 9 months and deal with everything that comes with it. I think we are a long way away from that at this moment in time, but that is no criticism of the club or anyone who thinks we can get there in time. I feel like the best chance the club will have of doing it is steady progress that can hopefully be sustained - the development of players on the pitch and the experience the non-playing staff have off it in a slow but sure way bodes much better for the future, but (and it is a big but) the problem with this is you are very exposed to your best players leaving which makes it hard to sustain progress and places a great stress on the transfer policy (no club in the world is better than average, whatever you may think). We should dream big and try our best to exceed every expectation, but realistically be aware that we're now embarking on the biggest challenge yet and one that historically is very hard to achieve AND sustain unless you have untold millions with little regard for your Academy (and Saints do have a budget and a definite view of what the Academy is to provide). I just hope, that should be 'toil' in the middle of the Premier League for the next few seasons that fan enthusiasm doesn't wain (it will) and that we can hang onto our better players and build slowly (highly unlikely). Then will come the big test for the owners and Cortese. -
Spurs officials apparently in Valencia to try and agree a deal for Soldado. Cissokho potentially going on loan to Liverpool. The destruction of the first team is about to start but all quiet as far as Banega is concerned.
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Considering his age when he signed the new contract and the length of it as well, I wouldn't be surprised if it was made with the view that both parties (Saints and Lambert) accept his role will clearly decrease over time but Lambert (like Davis before him) received long-term deal out of loyalty and thanks for services already rendered. It is becoming quite common in sports. If we do bring in another striker who does significantly cut Lambert's minutes, it remains to be seen whether Lambert will accept this new role or seek to play elsewhere.
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Players wanted - 11-a-side tournament in Preston, 20/21 July
Lallana's Left Peg replied to stevegrant's topic in The Saints
The video confirms what we were told about the Desso pitch being made bigger then - in the video the goal behind the gate is a good 15-20 yards away, whereas over the weekend it was stuck neat against the back. -
Players wanted - 11-a-side tournament in Preston, 20/21 July
Lallana's Left Peg replied to stevegrant's topic in The Saints
I thought we did ok all things considered. Makeshift team, people out of position, and we only play together once or twice a year. These other teams play regularly and all that stuff so once we sorted ourselves out a bit and got used to each other we were more solid. Above all it was a good laugh and in terms of facilities and organisation this years effort blew Leeds out of the water. A shame more Saints fans don't want to get involved but hopefully that will change in the future! I didn't play 11's this past season so fair to say I am feeling it a bit now but I don't think I'll ever be able to stop throwing myself about on the pitch when the competitive juices get flowing. Sounds like I may see most of you for the game against West Brom fans the morning before the season opener. -
Little update on this. Apparently Valencia have to raise €15 - 20m net in funds before the end of the transfer window and that includes after purchasing replacements (they don't have the quality in the existing squad to come in and fill in gaps in the first team). Plus in Spain transfers can be complicated with often significant portions of fees going to parties other than the selling club. So it is very much game on for the big sale at the Mestalla. Valencia continue to be linked to €3-5m signings in all three phases of the pitch as it doesn't appear any member of their team is untouchable. Rami has apparently refused to play in a friendly against Stuttgart in case he gets injured which has angered their fans and means he may be closer to the exit door than others at this moment in time. Valencia are desperately looking to offload squad players on big wages (like Piatti) however they are struggling a little because just about every club in the world is aware of their predicament (very hard to keep anything quiet in Spain, though Valencia's fight against debt is an annual thing anyway which would be newsworthy if it wasn't occurring rather than the other way around). However, that said, Banega does not appear to be linked with a proper exit from the club other than the articles already posted on here and the fans certainly aren't talking about him leaving either. He'll have his price though, I've no doubt about that. And if there is one part of the pitch Valencia could probably absorb a loss, it is midfield.
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Ramirez, his first season, how good has he been?
Lallana's Left Peg replied to Barry Sanchez's topic in The Saints
He isn't vital to the team yet, which is a shame considering his talent level and what he has shown in very minor glimpses. On that basis he isn't untouchable in terms of selling. That said, he is clearly worth a second season and the challenge is whether or not he fits how Pochettino likes to play the game. On the face of it he doesn't seem to fit. But on the other hand he is clearly a very talented player. There will have to be a compromise somewhere and it'll be interesting to see if it is Pochettino's or Ramirez's to make. I suspect the latter so we'll just have to see what happens in the first half of the season. -
It is very peculiar for a bookie to refuse bets. I couldn't even credit them with laziness - once they've set the odds and tolerances up most of the revised odds will be automated after bets are taken without the intervention of traders. And if you look at some of the players they have markets for, they are quite obscure. I've done a little bit of research and taken a look at an English fan forum for Valencia. It appears that failure to qualify for the Champions League has blown a massive hole in the accounts and the club must generate a decent amount of money from selling players otherwise they may not see out the next season. There is even talk of going bankrupt and starting again rather than having to go through selling the best players at the end of every season just to keep afloat. On that basis you can see why clubs may be playing the waiting game with their players - as the transfer window goes on Valencia's position to negotiate gets weaker and weaker. Rami, Banega, and Soldado could well all be leaving. Saints' challenge will be timing getting a bid accepted whilst other teams won't be in the hunt, otherwise if the fee gets too low there will surely be more appealing destinations for Banega. Let the games begin...
