The Starmer Years - Can The New Broom Sweep Clean?

[Sir Ralph]

1 hour ago, whelk said:

The NI and minimum wage rise will obvious impact costs and then prices however that isn’t anything systemic that will worry economists for future.

And no good Ralph citing individual months compared with EU countries as any sort of long-term comparison, largely meaningless unless over significant time. Assume he’d be hysterical if UK had France’s unemployment rate?

 

The point was made on here that hypochondriac was incorrect to blame the current jump in inflation on Government policy and various people told him he wasn't correct. I responded to address that point, with evidence, to which nobody has given a rationale argument against. To be fair, I think you're latest response agrees that Government policy has had a detrimental impact on the current inflation rate but to a lesser degree. 

The topic has now shifted to borrowing. Its good that net borrowing reduced (not borrowing overall). My concern around this is that the reduced net borrowing has been driven by increases in tax rises which is having other negative impacts on the economy (e.g. inflation). You will note that the article states that overall borrowing is up £6 billion compared to this time last year. So essentially the Government is borrowing more but covering it by taxing people more. In my opinion that isn't the best approach and isn't sustainable in the longer run. 

On the FT Article about the flight of wealth, you need to read the article in full, rather than just the headline. Factually I also never “rubbished” it. In fact I didn’t respond to it. I know a number of people that have left (including another friend who is leaving this week). I was previously asked why I took this view and to give examples. I explained the people I know who have left and some people didn't believe me. Frankly I don't care if some of those on here do or don't, it doesn't change the facts. I'm relatively rationale so obviously not going to dispute the figures in that article. However, the article says that those leaving is in line with projections (e.g. 25% of non-doms with trusts and 10% of those without trusts would leave). It basically says it isn't worse than expected (I hasten to add, yet) but doesn't say that people haven't left. I don't think we ever discussed whether the number of people leaving would be worse than projections. The article also says that the Government is awaiting further data to decide whether it rows back on its non-dom policies. So you need to read the context and also see what other data comes out over the next year or so.

To clarify I wasn't a Brexiteer just because my views are more conservative in nature. I tend to gravitate towards pro-economic policies and frankly don't care which party comes up with them. If I thought Labour's policies were genuinely pro-growth, I would vote for them, but I don't think they are.

Edited Thursday at 08:57 by Sir Ralph

[Sir Ralph]

15 minutes ago, sadoldgit said:

Odd that you should now be putting so much store by the FT when you dismissed an article I quoted from them that rubbished your erroneous claim that the rich were fleeing the UK in droves.

Perhaps give this some thought, although, again, it flies in the face of what you would have us believe.

https://www.economicsobservatory.com/why-are-food-prices-rising-in-the-uk

I responded to the point about the FT article above.

You are focusing on food inflation only - whilst this is one main factor, the Government's policies have impacted inflation overall. I genuinely struggle to understand how somebody can make the case that our closest comparables (european countries) have external forces that our so different to ours, other than national policies, which mean our inflation rate is double theirs (or x 4 in the case of France). Even the article you have found suggests its a factor, albeit attributes less weight than most other commentators. As I mentioned above, I commented because another poster was rubbished for making a legitimate point. I think we will agree to disagree.

Edited Thursday at 08:29 by Sir Ralph

[Lord Duckhunter]

6 hours ago, hypochondriac said:

Indeed. Pretty daft to suggest that financial policies haven't had a clear impact on this. Frankly bizarre to suggest they haven't. 

Whilst it could be said that the BoE are ultimately responsible for inflation & not The Government. The Bank’s response is directly related to the Government’s mishandling of the wider economy. The finances are not capable of withstanding the measures necessary to bring inflation down, which is why it’s proving so sticky, and difficult to get under control. If the wider economy was healthier the BoE could stick to their remit, and get it down. 

[egg]

6 hours ago, Sir Ralph said:

The point was made on here that hypochondriac was incorrect to blame the current jump in inflation on Government policy and various people told him he wasn't correct. I responded to address that point, with evidence, to which nobody has given a rationale argument against. To be fair, I think you're latest response agrees that Government policy has had a detrimental impact on the current inflation rate but to a lesser degree. 

The topic has now shifted to borrowing. Its good that net borrowing reduced (not borrowing overall). My concern around this is that the reduced net borrowing has been driven by increases in tax rises which is having other negative impacts on the economy (e.g. inflation). You will note that the article states that overall borrowing is up £6 billion compared to this time last year. So essentially the Government is borrowing more but covering it by taxing people more. In my opinion that isn't the best approach and isn't sustainable in the longer run. 

On the FT Article about the flight of wealth, you need to read the article in full, rather than just the headline. Factually I also never “rubbished” it. In fact I didn’t respond to it. I know a number of people that have left (including another friend who is leaving this week). I was previously asked why I took this view and to give examples. I explained the people I know who have left and some people didn't believe me. Frankly I don't care if some of those on here do or don't, it doesn't change the facts. I'm relatively rationale so obviously not going to dispute the figures in that article. However, the article says that those leaving is in line with projections (e.g. 25% of non-doms with trusts and 10% of those without trusts would leave). It basically says it isn't worse than expected (I hasten to add, yet) but doesn't say that people haven't left. I don't think we ever discussed whether the number of people leaving would be worse than projections. The article also says that the Government is awaiting further data to decide whether it rows back on its non-dom policies. So you need to read the context and also see what other data comes out over the next year or so.

To clarify I wasn't a Brexiteer just because my views are more conservative in nature. I tend to gravitate towards pro-economic policies and frankly don't care which party comes up with them. If I thought Labour's policies were genuinely pro-growth, I would vote for them, but I don't think they are.

Nope. What I actually said was that it's daft to "bash labour for the rise in food prices that are dictated by a multitude of non governmental factors, to include the weather". That's because it is.

I've acknowledged that NI costs have played some part in it. You've failed to acknowledge that there are multitude of factors outside of government control.

 

[Sir Ralph]

22 minutes ago, egg said:

Nope. What I actually said was that it's daft to "bash labour for the rise in food prices that are dictated by a multitude of non governmental factors, to include the weather". That's because it is.

I've acknowledged that NI costs have played some part in it. You've failed to acknowledge that there are multitude of factors outside of government control.

 

I didn’t ever say external factors couldn’t impact inflation. Inflation is impacted by both external and domestic factors. It would be irrational to suggest otherwise. You may have commented on food prices but the point was made by posters generally (that you align with) that domestic policy doesn’t really impact inflation. This isn’t a reasonable point in my opinion.

To contextualise this, the point I made is the difference between the European countries inflation rates and our inflation rate (which is x2, x3 or x4 ours) has been widely commented upon as being linked to domestic government policy. European countries experience similar external factors to us so rationally many people have identified the significant inflation rates difference as being linked to recent government policy. It also suggests that domestic policies are having a notable impact on inflation, hence the difference between our inflation rates and that of other European countries. I think you are saying that Government policy has had a detrimental impact on inflation at least to some degree so we have common ground in principle at least. The increased minimum wage will also have had a notable impact, in my opinion.

Edited Thursday at 15:10 by Sir Ralph

[hypochondriac]

If accurate then that's absolutely shocking and highlights one of the main problems we face. 

[hypochondriac]

30 minutes ago, egg said:

Nope. What I actually said was that it's daft to "bash labour for the rise in food prices that are dictated by a multitude of non governmental factors, to include the weather". That's because it is.

I've acknowledged that NI costs have played some part in it. You've failed to acknowledge that there are multitude of factors outside of government control.

 

Who bashed labour for the rise in food prices at the time you posted? 

[Sir Ralph]

22 minutes ago, hypochondriac said:

If accurate then that's absolutely shocking and highlights one of the main problems we face. 

To be fair the Tories also allowed this happen but the issues of Labour not being able to get through their welfare reforms because of their backbenchers are one of the reasons for the budget shortfall. They allegedly now are going to come after people’s property value, despite those people having invested in their homes and been responsible (eg the couple mentioned in the graph). It’s the feeding of the net taker mentality, not encouraging net givers who are productive. Being a cynic the more net takers you can create, the more voters you  have but ultimately it kills economic growth. 

Edited Thursday at 15:38 by Sir Ralph

[hypochondriac]

6 minutes ago, Sir Ralph said:

To be fair the Tories also allowed this happen but the issues of Labour not being able to get through their welfare reforms because of their backbenchers are one of the reasons for the budget shortfall. They allegedly now are going to come after people’s property value, despite those people having invested in their homes and been responsible (eg the couple mentioned in the graph). It’s the feeding of the net taker mentality (I assume their definition of “working people”), not encouraging net givers who are productive. Being a cynic the more net takers you can create, the more voters they have but ultimately it kills economic growth. 

It's absolutely not the case that Labour are solely responsible for this at all but it's absolutely shocking and a damming indictment of this country. 

[Farmer Saint]

10 hours ago, sadoldgit said:

Odd that you should now be putting so much store by the FT when you dismissed an article I quoted from them that rubbished your erroneous claim that the rich were fleeing the UK in droves.

Perhaps give this some thought, although, again, it flies in the face of what you would have us believe.

https://www.economicsobservatory.com/why-are-food-prices-rising-in-the-uk

Yup.

[Farmer Saint]

12 hours ago, hypochondriac said:

Indeed. Pretty daft to suggest that financial policies haven't had a clear impact on this. Frankly bizarre to suggest they haven't. 

Considering one of the main drivers was said to be air fares (jumping by 30%, largest rise since 2001), petrol and diesel and food prices. As outlined above in the Economics article most of the food issues are due to climate. Not sure where you think the minimum wage/NI increases have affected flights and diesel/petrol prices. 

[Sir Ralph]

46 minutes ago, Farmer Saint said:

Yup.

Which I responded to and explained. So I  haven’t ignored it

You ignore the FT article on inflation when it suits you but pay attention when it (non Dom’s) when it helps your case (even though you only read the headline and not the detailed context). Ironically it seems you are doing the same thing that you have just accused me of!

Edited Thursday at 19:19 by Sir Ralph

[hypochondriac]

15 minutes ago, Farmer Saint said:

Considering one of the main drivers was said to be air fares (jumping by 30%, largest rise since 2001), petrol and diesel and food prices. As outlined above in the Economics article most of the food issues are due to climate. Not sure where you think the minimum wage/NI increases have affected flights and diesel/petrol prices. 

??? 

[Farmer Saint]

5 minutes ago, hypochondriac said:

??? 

???

16 minutes ago, Sir Ralph said:

Which I responded to and explained.

I thought you'd cried off and had quit posting here?

[Sir Ralph]

2 minutes ago, Farmer Saint said:

???

I thought you'd cried off and had quit posting here?

As you have probably seen, I have done my best to provide considered responses. I have tried not to given rude or sarcastic responses. On the contrary the response you have given just there speaks volumes. 

Edited Thursday at 19:17 by Sir Ralph

[Farmer Saint]

Just now, Sir Ralph said:

As you have probably seen, I have done my best to provide considered responses. The response you have given just there speaks volumes. 

We had our debates last week. I spent a lot of time and effort on them, and yet you couldn't answer my questions - the ones I asked over and over. You then said you weren't going to post anymore, and yet less than a week later here you are, claiming that yet another mate has moved abroad. I assume their tax knowledge is as poor as yours.

Personally, I think you are a WUM and not worth my effort. 

[Sir Ralph]

11 minutes ago, Farmer Saint said:

We had our debates last week. I spent a lot of time and effort on them, and yet you couldn't answer my questions - the ones I asked over and over. You then said you weren't going to post anymore, and yet less than a week later here you are, claiming that yet another mate has moved abroad. I assume their tax knowledge is as poor as yours.

Personally, I think you are a WUM and not worth my effort. 

Thats nice for you. Don’t comment on posts related to me if I’m not worth your effort then.

Edited Thursday at 19:31 by Sir Ralph

[hypochondriac]

21 minutes ago, Farmer Saint said:

???

I thought you'd cried off and had quit posting here?

Bizarre response. Where did I say the bit highlighted in bold? 

[Farmer Saint]

1 minute ago, hypochondriac said:

Bizarre response. Where did I say the bit highlighted in bold? 

"Pretty daft to suggest that financial policies haven't had a clear impact on this. Frankly bizarre to suggest they haven't."

[Farmer Saint]

12 minutes ago, Sir Ralph said:

Thats nice for you. Don’t comment on posts related to me if I’m not worth your effort then.

I didn't. I commented on one backing up what I said yesterday. Nowt to do with you. But don't worry, I'll pop you on ignore with the other WUMs.

[Sir Ralph]

3 minutes ago, Farmer Saint said:

I didn't. I commented on one backing up what I said yesterday. Nowt to do with you. But don't worry, I'll pop you on ignore with the other WUMs.

Please stop messaging me - remember I’m not worth the effort.

[hypochondriac]

9 minutes ago, Farmer Saint said:

"Pretty daft to suggest that financial policies haven't had a clear impact on this. Frankly bizarre to suggest they haven't."

Not sure where you think the minimum wage/NI increases have affected flights and diesel/petrol prices

Again, what I said doesn't say what you are stating I said. 

[Farmer Saint]

Just now, hypochondriac said:

Not sure where you think the minimum wage/NI increases have affected flights and diesel/petrol prices

Again, what I said doesn't say what you are stating I said. 

 

Ok, so how have the fiscal policies clearly impacted the increase, considering the increase has been blamed on those three things.

[hypochondriac]

2 minutes ago, Farmer Saint said:

Ok, so how have the fiscal policies clearly impacted the increase, considering the increase has been blamed on those three things.

Is your position that the government's financial policies have no impact on inflation being more than double that of our European neighbours? 

[egg]

11 minutes ago, hypochondriac said:

Is your position that the government's financial policies have no impact on inflation being more than double that of our European neighbours? 

A question is not an answer. It's swerving something that you know you can't sensibly answer. 

[Farmer Saint]

13 minutes ago, hypochondriac said:

Is your position that the government's financial policies have no impact on inflation being more than double that of our European neighbours? 

Do I think the fiscal policies of the Government have had a near on 2% increase on inflation vs our neighbours? Considering those fiscal policies were implemented in April, and inflation has only risen 0.4% over the past 3 months I would say no. Take into account that the BoE have cut interest rates by 0.5% over the same timeframe, and the above reasonings around fuel, flights and food, and you may see the cause of that increase.

Edited Thursday at 20:06 by Farmer Saint

[hypochondriac]

9 minutes ago, Farmer Saint said:

Do I think the fiscal policies of the Government have had a near on 2% increase on inflation vs our neighbours? Considering those fiscal policies were implemented in April, and inflation has only risen 0.4% over the past 3 months I would say no. Take into account that the BoE have cut interest rates by 0.5% over the same timeframe, and the above reasonings around fuel, flights and food, and you may see the cause of that increase.

I never said that fiscal policies were the sole cause of the difference but it clearly had an impact. 

[Farmer Saint]

Just now, hypochondriac said:

I never said that fiscal policies were the sole cause of the difference but it clearly had an impact. 

Where is it "clearly". It can only be a max of 10% of total inflation over that period, and that's removing any of the reasons that have been blamed for it, and the interest rate cuts. Not sure how you can see that as "clearly"?

[hypochondriac]

5 minutes ago, Farmer Saint said:

Where is it "clearly". It can only be a max of 10% of total inflation over that period, and that's removing any of the reasons that have been blamed for it, and the interest rate cuts. Not sure how you can see that as "clearly"?

I disagree that fiscal policy doesn't have a clear impact on levels of inflation much higher than comparable neighbours. We can quibble over what extent it's had an impact but it clearly has had one. 

Edited Thursday at 20:24 by hypochondriac

[Farmer Saint]

7 minutes ago, hypochondriac said:

I disagree that fiscal policy doesn't have a clear impact on levels of inflation much higher than comparable neighbours. We can quibble over what extent it's had an impact but it clearly has had one. 

Unless you do something batshit mental like Liz did, it has little impact nowadays.

What fiscal policies do you think are causing this increase then, as they're clearly having an impact - let's bear in mind that as above, NI and minimum wage have had little impact, if any.

Edited Thursday at 20:31 by Farmer Saint

[Sir Ralph]

5 minutes ago, hypochondriac said:

I disagree that fiscal policy doesn't have a clear impact on levels of inflation much higher than comparable neighbours. We can quibble over what extent it's had an impact but it clearly has had one. 

UK inflation was 3.8% in July 2025. UK inflation was 2.2% in July 2024. An increase of 1.4% since July 2024.

EU inflation was 2.4% in July 2025.  EU inflation was 2.8% in July 2024 (higher than the UK when the government took charge). A decrease of 0.4% since July 2024.

 

[hypochondriac]

1 minute ago, Sir Ralph said:

UK inflation was 3.8% in July 2025. UK inflation was 2.2% in July 2024. An increase of 1.4% since July 2024.

EU inflation was 2.4% in July 2025.  EU inflation was 2.8% in July 2024 (higher than the UK when the government took charge). A decrease of 0.4% since July 2024.

 

Supposedly fiscal policy has had no clear impact on the divergence. 

[Farmer Saint]

Just now, hypochondriac said:

Supposedly fiscal policy has had no clear impact on the divergence. 

What fiscal policies were implemented during that time?

[Sir Ralph]

1 minute ago, hypochondriac said:

Supposedly fiscal policy has had no clear impact on the divergence. 

It’s just bad luck mate - I think it’s the weather. If you start quoting stats to demonstrate there is no link between the two, always be thorough. Sort of debunks the argument. Anyway I’m not worth the effort so I suspect he won’t reply.

[Farmer Saint]

7 minutes ago, hypochondriac said:

Supposedly fiscal policy has had no clear impact on the divergence. 

Love the maths here by the way 😂

UK inflation was 3.8% in July 2025. UK inflation was 2.2% in July 2024. An increase of 1.4% since July 2024

[egg]

4 minutes ago, Sir Ralph said:

It’s just bad luck mate - I think it’s the weather. If you start quoting stats to demonstrate there is no link between the two, always be thorough. Sort of debunks the argument. Anyway I’m not worth the effort so I suspect he won’t reply.

Alternatively you could answer the question that the man's asked. 

[Farmer Saint]

Here's an article from late 2023 explaining why in general we have higher inflation than the EU:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65037292

[egg]

2 minutes ago, Farmer Saint said:

Here's an article from late 2023 explaining why in general we have higher inflation than the EU:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65037292

They're be telling you that Brexit is a Labour fiscal policy in a mo. 

[Farmer Saint]

Just now, egg said:

They're be telling you that Brexit is a Labour fiscal policy in a mo. 

Honestly bro, this thread takes so much out of me. Everyone is a fucking pound-shop economist these days.

[hypochondriac]

9 minutes ago, Farmer Saint said:

What fiscal policies were implemented during that time?

National insurance and minimum wage increases have undoubtedly pushed up food price inflation. The retail industry has highlighted the fact that tighter business costs have been passed onto consumers particularly on groceries. 

The rise in real wages and investment in public services are politically popular but contribute to this so called sticky inflation - particularly in services. Labour-market reforms aren't the sole driver of inflation but their impact on cost-push pressures are clear and has contributed to the inflationary rise. Clearly. 

[hypochondriac]

12 minutes ago, egg said:

Alternatively you could answer the question that the man's asked. 

Pretty rich given that you frequently fail to answer questions posed to you on a number of threads. 

[hypochondriac]

12 minutes ago, Farmer Saint said:

Here's an article from late 2023 explaining why in general we have higher inflation than the EU:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65037292

I'm not sure anyone has argued that there are not other factors at play. 

[Lord Duckhunter]

14 minutes ago, Farmer Saint said:

Everyone is a fucking pound-shop economist these days.

 

[Farmer Saint]

1 minute ago, hypochondriac said:

National insurance and minimum wage increases have undoubtedly pushed up food price inflation.

Again, 0.4% max over the last 3 months, and even then it's unlikely to be half that considering what has been quoted - don't forget fuel price increases also affect food prices.

I'm sorry, but I just disagree with how fiscal policy has clearly had an impact - I don't think anything is clear with the geo-political environment over the last 12 months, along with wars in Russia and Gaza, the lack of business investment due to global tariff pressures etc.

 

[Sir Ralph]

25 minutes ago, egg said:

Alternatively you could answer the question that the man's asked. 

I’m just a WUM/pound shop economist who isn’t worth the effort though. 

Edited Thursday at 21:07 by Sir Ralph

[Farmer Saint]

2 minutes ago, Lord Duckhunter said:

 

 

[hypochondriac]

5 minutes ago, Farmer Saint said:

Again, 0.4% max over the last 3 months, and even then it's unlikely to be half that considering what has been quoted - don't forget fuel price increases also affect food prices.

I'm sorry, but I just disagree with how fiscal policy has clearly had an impact - I don't think anything is clear with the geo-political environment over the last 12 months, along with wars in Russia and Gaza, the lack of business investment due to global tariff pressures etc.

 

Let's agree to disagree. I already said we can quibble over the extent of it. 

[Farmer Saint]

4 minutes ago, hypochondriac said:

Let's agree to disagree. I already said we can quibble over the extent of it. 

Agreed.

[Whitey Grandad]

14 hours ago, Sir Ralph said:

1. We are at 3.8% inflation. Eurozone at 2%, France at 0.9%

2. Inflation likely to rise to 4% in the next few month. Economic growth poor

3. Inflation linked to increases in food due to NI increases, wage inflation from minimum wage change and regulation introduced around packaging

4. Due to increased inflation, interest rates will be limited by BoE. 

So in summary, everyone else's inflation is less than ours and the difference is mainly linked to Government policies.

You may struggle to link the two but whether you like it or not, that's what it says. I trust the FT and they are clearly saying this significant difference is based on Government policies. This is contrary to the opinions of various posters here.

 

Isn't France in the Eurozone?

[Sir Ralph]

12 minutes ago, Whitey Grandad said:

Isn't France in the Eurozone?

Yes France’s 0.9% forms part of the overall 2% within the eurozone. Its specific figure was just highlighted