The9

Used to be able to check the scores on Orange via WAP when the stadium first opened, then when 3G came along and smartphones and websites got graphically heavy my speed hit a brick wall, and now on O2 I can't get anything at all from kick off until I'm past the King Alfred.

Or tennis court.

I utterly despise the man. Especially his habit of writing teams off and slating anyone he can get away with to deflect blame from himself. I disagree that either Saints or QPR were doomed, he just made the wrong decisions. Sunderland were as bad as QPR most of this season but Di Canio got instant results. As the result at St Mary's proved, anyone can get people to do anything if they put enough effort in - and you KNOW he was putting more effort into winning at St Mary's than anything else he's done this season.

Although the source is a little dubious : http://www.london24.com/sport/qpr/qpr_boss_hits_back_at_bosingwa_accusations_and_reveals_samba_injury_1_2171458

Under a 10% chance of finishing 10th or above now, and it's about 100 times less likely that we'll get relegated. 0.08% as it happens. We all know there are scenarios that will send us down, the point is they are extremely unlikely to occur.

Just for a bit more clarity. Matches involving two teams either below or just above Saints where at least 3 points must be dropped : Villa v Sunderland Fulham v Reading* Norwich v Villa West Ham v Newcastle Sunderland v Stoke Wigan v Swansea QPR* v Newcastle Swansea v Fulham West Ham v Reading* Wigan v Villa plus Sunderland v Saints and Saints v Stoke. That's a LOT of points getting dropped around us considering we're already 7 points clear of the relegation zone.

Samba was injured too.

3 games, other than Sunderland. Other than that, quite, but people still want to flap.

Don't drink the Redknapp Kool-Aid, he made plenty more than just one mistake, the best bit of it being that he knew what happened at Saints and proceeded to repeat ALL of those errors (other, maybe, than the one about sticking around too long after relegation).

I believe rolling over Portsmouth and escaping from relegation is the incident being referred to, though as we came bottom due to losing to Man U, it only actually relegated Palace.

He picked Ben Haim at left back last weekend, he was garbage. Shocking really, because he was outstanding at right back in the Portsmouth side relegated from the Championship a year ago. And by "shocking" I mean "utterly unsurprising", and by "outstanding" I mean "outstandingly bad".

Again, if we lose all 3 matches, we are 48% likely to finish 2 places clear of relegation. The stats INCLUDE the form.

Yet there are STILL people who think the 1:100 scenario is going to play out. Even if we go into the last match only 1 point ahead of both Villa and Wigan with goal differences similar to how they are now, we are already safe barring an absolute thrashing (like, 8 or 9 goals at home to Stoke) because they play each other. The games between the bottom sides give us the cushion, because someone has to drop points in all of those games, preventing one of those sides catching us. As we've already seen, the combinations to get ALL of the teams below us above us exist, but they are rare.

We were only 28% likely to go down even if we lost our last 5, and that was known 2 weeks ago.

I can give you these - if Villa win (this covers the first 97% of outcomes, plus Norwich are still below us too) : Sunderland 1.7 Newcastle 8.0 Aston Villa 15.1 Wigan 72.5

This website http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Premier.html runs a simulation based on previous results and difficulty of fixtures and compiles the results from that simulation, giving probability figures for each. It ran the simulation of remaining fixtures 52 million times and we end up on 39 points 3.35 million times. If we finish on 39 points we are likely to finish 16th (not even 17th) 48% of the time. It also runs a simulation using 50/50 results, we're even safer using those, because obviously we'd get at least one win.

Oh Jesus, another one. Our probability of getting relegated on the 39 points we currently have is around 1%. Our probability of getting relegated on 40 is 0.1%, 41 points under 0.05%. 42 points via 3 draws less again, and if we win one of the three remaining games we now cannot be relegated at all. Villa are around 35% likely to go down, Wigan 58%. That leaves everyone else with a COMBINED likelihood of 7% between them. 5% of that is Newcastle, 1.4% of it is Norwich.

Probably about 75/1, just because some people might want to take a punt on the longer odds, ignoring the reality that it's a STILL a 1:100 chance and Villa's result doesn't change our odds even 1%. In fact us losing all 3 matches doesn't change out relegation probability much more than 1%. It won't close the gap from us to the relegation places, because Wigan will still be the same number of points behind us.

Crazy Frog.

Yup, but some people still want to be drama queens about it.

You have a cheap house if that's going to cover it. Ah, no wait, that was Blakey.

Ooh, ok. He's sane then, just stupid ?

Not yet, but then there aren't many "official" releases, MLS is one of the few leagues that has started with the 2013/14 kits already, and you don't often see the socks until launch or online sales. Anyway, here's another variation on the adidas template :

We are welcome to worry, but you should probably be more worried about the following : You are only 10 times more likely to die in a house fire than Saints are to get relegated from the current position. You are 20 times more likely to get cheated on than Saints are to get relegated. You are also 20 times more likely to sustain a concussion, or to die of heart disease, than Saints are to get relegated. You are precisely AS likely to die of obesity as Saints are to get relegated. http://greatist.com/health/your-top-20-fears-and-how-much-you-should-worry

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league Spurs beat Saints 4/7 Villa beat Sunderland 13/10 Norwich lose to Villa 11/5 WBA lose to Wigan 12/5 Wigan beat Swansea 23/17 Sunderland beat Southampton 5/4 Norwich beat WBA 13/10 QPR lose to Newcastle 8/5 Someone work that out, I'm trying to watch Newport v Grimsby... (Don't forget that Stoke, Fulham, West Ham and Swansea would all need to not lose all their games as well, and that list already includes one Swansea defeat).