The9

Or a collective sigh of relief after Wigan's failure to get enough points to trouble us. Though that could happen on Saturday, of course.

By then it could be "nothing". If Wigan fail to get more than 1 point from Saturday and Tuesday they can't catch us.

Last time I checked there were punters on Betfair offering 190/1, which is only 4 times stingier than the actual probability of it happening.

EIGHTY TO ONE !?!? The actual odds for it to happen are somewhere nearer five hundred.

Done this to death, the "success" thing is not even true. Even if it was, every team switching to "lucky red" would bring the success rate down quickly enough anyway.

I would suggest a "please" might be more helpful in the title, at least then I'd know not to bother reading the thread as if it contained some new information.

Yeah, and with a 17-year old Darren Peacock, later transferred for £2m to Newcastle, on the books. I did labour under the misapprehension that it was only £40k for about 15 years until that Jerry Sherman interview footage turned up on the internet, I think the £40k was the bit they couldn't avoid paying though. I remember all the gate-locking and "can they play at Llanwern" stuff in the dying days, though Rochdale home in the FL was my last "old club" match and I've still never seen them play in the Conference. Pff, Cromwell Road end, I was a "terrace next to the 'grand'stand at that end" kid, I don't even know if it had a name. Never played on the pitch though, fantastic cambered pitch and massive thick oval goalposts, surrounded by two sheds, a stand and a lot of fences. Was gutted when they stuck houses on it nevertheless, as with the Dell.

Newport AFC played in Moreton-in-Marsh in Gloucestershire in their first season (1989/90 - I saw one away match in Stroud) due to the refusal of Newport council to let them play in the town due to the debts of the previous club. Moreton is 80 miles from Newport. The club returned to Newport after the first season and played at Somerton Park for 2 years ('90-'92) before the FAW threw their toys out of the pram and refused to let them play in Wales due to the formation of the League of Wales "The Exiles" went into Exile again '92-'94, at Gloucester City's Meadow Park (a mere 50 miles from Newport), before nailing the FAW to the wall over "restraint of trade" under the conditions of freedom of movement in the Maastricht Agreement that underpinned the EU, and earning the legal right to play football in Wales whilst still in the English pyramid. Newport AFC returned to Newport for the second time in 1994/5, playing at the newly-built Newport Stadium (aka "Spytty Park"), then renamed to become "Newport County AFC" in 1999. Due to the stink of bankruptcy and stigma of not paying local businesses attached to the club (Skates take note), many Newport fans were reluctant to give up the "AFC" name, but the poll offered Newport County AFC as a compromise and that won the vote. Gradual progress up the Leagues saw "promotion" to the Conference South when non-League reorganised, and legitimate Championship of Conference South 2 years ago. So in 2011, Newport County got back to the Division they were bottom of whilst folding in 1989. In 2011/12 the team nearly got relegated from the Conference with the Spytty pitch falling to pieces, ruining their natural passing game and causing a backlog, so with feelers out for possible new locations, the astonishing "not in my lifetime" prospect of the football club sharing with the rugby came to fruition for 2012/13 as the County took up residence at Newport RFC/Newport Gwent Dragons' Rodney Parade. To give some idea of how strange this is to me, I lived in Newport for over 30 years, was born there, my grandad is an Honorary Life Member of the Athletic Club which until recently owned the rugby club site, I played sport regularly at the Athletic Club, and I have NEVER seen a match of any sort at "the rugby ground". The last visit even to the stands for me was an early 1980s fireworks show. The idea of groundsharing the 7-11,000 capacity ground was just not considered and the idea polarised the football and rugby communities for years. Rodney Parade was built in 1877, and my grandad has had to live to 91 (92 in July!) to see the football team play there. Ironically enough due to a postponement at Christmas, I still haven't, yet.

Preaching to the choir here !

If I can interject a little personal note here, I am absolutely desperate for my hometown team to win the Conference Playoff Final on Sunday to get themselves back into the Football League; firstly because it would cap the 25 year absence of Newport from the Football League (24 years after they went bankrupt in the Conference). Secondly because I remember Portsmouth playing Newport in Division 4 in the late 1970s and I can't wait for the trip to Fratton, thirdly because Newport is the embodiment of a fans' club (albeit one who now have a multi-millionaire local lottery winner on the board, not that he puts money in), and finally because it really does illustrate how the Skate fookers have fallen to be playing them again. When the Skates were defrauding the taxman and businesses of £90m and cheating their way to an FA Cup in 2008, Newport were beating Llanelli in the FAW Premier Cup Final and rattling around in Conference South. 5 years ago there were five divisions between the teams. On Sunday, the Cheats will be 90 minutes from a League fixture next season with a club which DID get wound up for it's debts and has taken 25 years to get to the brink of making it back, doing things the RIGHT way. Or Wrexham might win.

Definitely, took their money though didn't they ? I bet they've spent it...

It's not in any way "almost statistically impossible" for any individual Prem team to win 3 straight games, and form can be misleading - but it very much depends on their fixtures. I keep pointing out that Villa are cack, and they are, but they've now beaten 4 sides around them, and that's 12 points. I agree it can't happen to everyone because they're playing each other (especially this weekend) and that's our safety net. Some of them don't even need 3 points, but fortunately we only need one of them to falter. Either way, we agree that we're safe in the vast majority of situations, even if it's for different reasons.

I refuse to discuss him any further on here, sorry, I just get slaughtered for not being part of the love in and buying into all the "top English scorer" nonsense as if it matters. But I basically agree with all of that and that (amongst other reasons) is why I want us to fork out for an established Prem goalscorer with pace who'll give us the option to play on the counter when Plan A doesn't work or isn't appropriate. Rodriguez might be becoming that player, but we'll see.

Matt Mills, presumably ?

Bizarre that viewing that thread in isolation with the benefit of hindsight, you, BlakeySFC and shurlock would seem to be credible, and most others (inc Colinjb) would seem to be clueless. Just goes to prove the theory about stopped clocks being right twice a day.

Seems to have been pretty awful backup at Reading, they got relegated.

Oh come on, everyone knows all of my opinions about Lambert are flameworthy and nonsense .

It's usually when the two centre backs work well together and both challenge and sweep in front (ha!) of him so he doesn't get the chance to get the ball under control. Man U were crap at it at St Mary's as one of them dropped off every time, then at Arsenal he didn't get a kick because they played the knock-down/control. To be honest we don't knock it at him in the air so much now, I just think they'd done their homework and came with him when he pulled short for the pass. As well as that, much more of our play was coming through Rodriguez running with the ball than earlier in the season too and he tends not to link with others when dribbling.

Yeah, though unlike (2 of?) United's relegations, I have no recollection of Wednesday sinking at all (other than the stuff about the now-former Prem Chairman bankrupting them with the likes of Sibon and De Bilde which I read about it in David Conn's book t'other day).

What interests me about that is that the example is totally vague, but the response doesn't focus on that, instead suggesting there's some implication that the players of the 1950s, rather than the maths around the results, which is basically a constant, is the important element here.

It was, and there was some discussion on the thread about United, hence the Tevez comment from someone. Then there was some Wednesday stuff. Anyway it was far enough back in the thread that I can't find it and the Tevez comment is sufficient reason alone to mention that piece of Prem folklore...

Well it certainly had the effect of preventing Saints selling kids tickets to adults' ticket numbers any more, apparently Wigan kicked up.

It's difficult not to be blase when the worst case scenario of 3 defeats for Saints is still only 2.4% likely to end in our relegation.

Not strictly true unless other results go our way. We can in extremely unlikely circumstances be relegated on 42pts if we win 1 and lose 2, though not if we draw 3 ! Presumably that little statty quirk is due to us also taking 2 points off Sunderland and Stoke by drawing, meaning they can get fewer points overall than if we beat one and lose to the other. Having said all that, 3 points and it's SO unlikely we're not safe even I'll stop splitting hairs about it.

That thing about Sheff U not being in the bottom positions I think must refer only to the final DAY, not the season, cos they're sure as hell 21st on 19th April 1994 with 38 games gone of the 42 match season. http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/premier-league/1993-1994/table/1994-04-19