The9

Can now get 220/1 on us going down on Betfair.

It sort of makes sense, but it's pretty much irrelevant in a last 3 matches scenario because the quality of opposition can vary so greatly in the fixtures teams have to play. If Saints were playing Man U, Arsenal and Man City away in their last 3 games I'd be slightly more concerned than I am, but only if Wigan had QPR, Reading and some no-mark midtablers in terrible form (West Brom? hoho) for their last games.

And by "really needed them to lose" you mean because our relegation probability has moved out massively from 0.08% to... gasp... 0.178%. So instead of being 99.92% likely to stay up, we're only 99.822% likely to. Yeah, that Villa result was critical. Do you understand that if Norwich DON'T "do" Villa it then leaves Norwich still below us ? Or that Wigan even if they win will still be 4 points behind us with only 9 points available to them ? And that Villa and Wigan have to drop at least 3 points between them on the last day ? Your panic is tangible, and not a little hysterical, in both senses of the word.

We're 7 points ahead with a much better GD, so they have to win 3 matches or win 2 and draw 2 just to catch us. So that's basically "what are the odds on Wigan getting at most 1 point from the next 2 matches", because if they LL DL or LD they can't catch us by the time the final match comes around. But then there's the possibility of Saints picking up points too.... FWIW, and I know bookies' odds are not the same as probability due to the markets but that's all we've got : West Brom v Wigan West Brom (7/5) 41.67% Draw (5/2) = 28.6% Wigan (11/5) = 31.25% and Wigan v Swansea Wigan (11/10) 47.6% Draw (5/2) 28.6% Swansea (11/4) 26.67% Smart arse warning : Obviously there's some rounding here, so not all totals will be exactly 100%. So the chances of Wigan either LL, LD, or DL is (rounded) 42+27+42+29+29+27/6 = around a 32.67 % chance we'll be safe before we even play Sunderland - even if we lose to Spurs. In addition, Saints' chances against Spurs are : Tottenham (1/2) 66.67% Draw (15/4) 21% Southampton (34/5) 12.8%. The win would see us all but safe on 42 points, so there's a 12.8% chance of that (there are a few scenarios where we're not, but if we draw all 3 games we are safe, so that's how narrow that margin is) Failing that, odds for Sunderland are Sunderland (5/4) 44.4% Draw (12/5) 29.4% Southampton (12/5) 29.4% and there's a 29.4% chance of us getting the 3 points there too. I'm not going to try and break down the overall probability because of all the other results to consider, (e.g. 2 draws for Saints, Villa/Newcastle/Norwich losing) but there are plenty of ways we can be comfortable prior to playing Stoke (the Arsenal v Wigan match is midweek before the last games as well and is likely to confirm our safety if it hasn't already happened by then, Wigan are currently 9/1 to get a win there [10%]).

Thing is, even if Wigan win the first 3 matches we're still basically only in a 4/5/6-way fight for the one remaining place with the teams around us (ok we won't be by the time that happens, but that's the situation at the moment).

Just to keep people updated, after last night's Villa win we've moved out to a massive 0.178% likely (from around 0.08 ). Losing all three matches now makes us 2.4% likely to go down at the moment (up from around 1.8%). If we lose on Saturday we will obviously become slightly more likely to get relegated again... but if Wigan lose too they're 83.8% doomed.

Assuming Lennon is fit. There are other ways of dealing with that, eg playing someone like Steven Davis left mid to help out. There is a reason I think we're going to lose...

The worst bit about this are that the odds taken are 10 times worse than the likelihood of it actually happening. Betfair's got 189/1 available.

Anyone ?

Think I'd pick either Clyne LB Richardson RB, or Clyne RB Jos LB (with Fonte in the middle if they don't think Forren is ready) - and if they don't think Forren is ready they're hardly likely to think Targett is. I wouldn't ever pick Cork at RB as I think he's been awful there and Richardson is at least a right back. Not keen on moving Yoshida out wide as he's not played well there either, and both of them are better in their first choice positions, assuming Cork's even fit. On balance, I think Clyne RB, Jos LB and Fonte/Forren in the middle with Yoshida. If Shaw's fit, him, if he's half fit, see above.

I think he might be quite important to their plans next season. Even if he isn't, we have very little chance of getting him back on loan unless Wenger wants to sign Schneiderlin or something.

I'm making notes of everyone who is unable to grasp the simple concept of probability on this thread, could come in handy in the future. We are safe 999/1000 times from this position. Tonight's result underlines that. We are still as far from the bottom 3 as at the start of the day. Someone else is dropping points each time they face off at the bottom.

Can I sue for gimmick infringement?

I'm still going for 4-4 tonight to be honest. For the sake of consistency, let's say 5-4 Sunderland. It's still more likely than Saints getting relegated, too.

You mean the same thing they said about us not having a go at Pochettino ?

Yeah, cos I can see Wigan making up those 7 points practically overnight.

Why do people like you believe in concepts like "tempting fate" ?

Really ? I think their support has been very average and not much different to ours.

Only to those prepared to debate every issue in isolation...

Actually I can see Villa continuing to push players forward and getting done a couple of times on the break, they're nothing like good enough at the back to have a full back on the edge of the opposition area half of the time.

More goals in this one, nice to see Weimann making me look good, lolz.

Seems quite a defensive response given what Turkish said, you two got some previous on here or something ?

Stickied up top already.

Bloody hilarious, and perfect indication of why Villa need more experience. Thought it was a strange time for Mignolet to make his first big error of the season, but it is wet there and that ball was a bugger to see.

I thought that at the time, if anything Bosingwa was reacting to a joke from his manager.