The9

Any chance of a breakdown of the league positions of Saints' opponents for the respective spells ? I don't recall Pochettino having a run of fixtures like our first few weeks, we played Arsenal twice under Adkins for a start.

I thought we were basically sound in the first half on Saturday, should have been at least level at half time, then without Cork we obviously lost a little familiarity and when it became 10-a-side the likelihood of getting picked off by a WBA side who play on the counter even at home significantly increased. Can't see us getting anything at Spurs, but I'm not going to worry about that.

He let me down every time he sidefooted it into the Itchen instead of passing it up the line in League One, but then I do have high standards.

Even so... they're in admin, talks of leaving the Ricoh and there appears to be some question about the location of various sums of cash and even the golden share within SISU's various holding structures. Then again we managed to find a million for Schneiderlin, but it's not like they're going to have any income for a few months and one major source of income, replica kit sale, could be stifled by the need to stump up cash for stock (as it was with Saints).

He started off with that, but firstly he's 15 years too late, and secondly he was all over the place with his "argument" after that.

Another thing against Villa, prior to kick off, they're doing the huddle motivation, who's leading the talk ? Brad Guzan.

Saints beating Sunderland will be much more relevant to that than Villa doing so.

Lambert and Cork aside, our Englishness is very much peripheral, they're all playing down the flanks. Weird when you think about it.

You saw "interesting points", I saw a mad ranting loon being exasperated about something he just couldn't comprehend. It was quite amusing when he started on about "3 for 1" and checking the sell by date...

Gary Neville has just done a nice illustration of the kind of basic errors Villa players make which cost them goals which is why they're going. They STILL defend like we did in the first 8 games.

It makes diddly squat difference to our chances overall, we're under 1% likely to go down no matter what the result tonight. I posted the impact on other sides on the "Are We Safe" thread and it just doesn't have any bearing on us. Aside from that, I also think we'll beat Sunderland up there, for no reason other than we'll know we have to perform and can't cruise it, and if we do perform we're a better side than Sunderland.

I don't think Agbonlahor has done anything decent in 3 years, Benteke I agree with, I'd say Weimann too, but Wigan have the experience of the pressure and Prem-experienced players all over. Villa have kids who will fold at don't have people to pull them around. Wigan's backlog is their biggest problem, they can write off Arsenal away 3 days after the cup final for a start, but I can see them beating Swansea (especially with the affection for Martinez at Swansea) and easily turning over Villa on the last day and I think that'll do for them, gives them an 80% chance of staying up. http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Wigan.html

How can Coventry afford him with the current mess they're in ?

It won't be the Basel shirt on this thread, as that's this season's. Tbh most of the adidas kits are one of 3 styles, the MLS shirts have a variety of faffy prints on the front but they're basically the same styles aside from the daft print.

I think Villa are cack and getting relegated, so I want a Sunderland win to confirm that.

Likelihood (percentages) of finishing in positions from 8th downwards, we can't come outside this range (the 0s are below 0.5% but not 0) : 8th-------10th--------12th-------14th-------16th-------18th 0----2-----7----13----15----19----17----15----9----2----0 However, before the Swansea match we were looking at the peak of this range being around 11th/12th not 13th/14th.

I don't think Reading's relegation impacts on Adkins' reputation whatsoever, he's come in a couple of weeks before an inevitable relegation with the team 10 points adrift and a view to building a side to get them back up. If anything, his Prem spell is a free go at trying players out for the Championship. But Redknapp's has taken a hammering : 2/3rds of the season left when he came in, spent millions, and down without a whimper on his watch. He even said it was "his team now" when they beat us, then claimed it "wasn't his team" again last week when they rolled over again. Mark Hughes doesn't come out of it looking very good either, but he was only 6 points adrift with months to go, where's Redknapp ?

I feel like I'm still playing, every time I look at a staircase or stand up. FWIW I didn't think Rabbit was offside either, and Baj definitely wasn't.

People won't be talking about 1%, because the probability will have significantly increased from 1% following that unlikely path already. But it requires at least 8 results to go the way you have required first. As we've already noted, those particular results are even less likely because of the form of the teams involved, around 1250/1 in total. There are 52 million permutations of possible results remaining, some of them will result in Saints going down. But not many.

We'd know at the start of the day that us losing and Wigan winning still wouldn't see us down though. Plus Villa beating Chelsea as required is at least a 3/1 shot on its own. Again, it could happen, but in a simulation, it's been proven that only 786/10000 times will a combination of results to relegate Saints actually happen. There's a 3% chance we could lose all 3 matches and still come 14th. It is 3 times less likely than that we'll lose all 3 matches and finish 18th.

Somewhat related, the probability for tonight, and the impact on it on other clubs : Villa v Sunderland Current relegation probabilities : (Saints 0.1%, Sunderland 0.6%, Norwich 1.6%) Newcastle 4.7%, Villa 34.7%, Wigan 58.3% If Villa win : Sunderland 1.7%, Newcastle 8%, Villa 15.1%, Wigan 72.5% Draw : Sunderland 0.1%, Newcastle 4%, Villa 38.2%, Wigan 56.1% If Sunderland win : Sunderland >0.05%, Newcastle 2.2%, Wigan 47.1%, Villa 49.9% So a Sunderland win makes Wigan slightly favoured over Villa to stay up. It would also put Sunderland ahead of us by a point with a min 3 goals better goal difference. However, the draw puts Sunderland a point BEHIND us with a slightly better GD and even then they're only 0.1% likely to go down and we're even less likely than that. Whatever happens, we remain 99.9% likely to stay up. A Villa win is much worse for Newcastle and Wigan than anyone else (as you'd expect looking at the table).

It's even more unlikely when you consider that due to the number of matches between "involved" teams, those combinations above mean some matches have to finish a specific way, or the impact on other combinations means we are again safer than we were before kick off. As someone just pointed out, it's the other teams being guaranteed to drop points that's the safety net here.

As a result of being 15 in 1988 I enjoy the singles of the Pet Shop Boys and Erasure. And I bought the Power Rangers Theme when it was released as a single.

If it's 0.08% it's 1250/1.

You can get it around the corporate areas at the back of the stand, or at least could last season - lots of media wifi floating around the back of the Itchen if you can get a code.