Forester

To be fair to CB you are all over the place my friend. Your reference to 20 points down and Redmond is two years later when Puel replaced Koeman. The original post was talking about Poch leaving and those five players listed going. They were replaced by, amongst others, Pelle, Tadic, Mane, Bertrand and Cedric under Koeman.

Yes this is a good post. Frankly the main reason we are going down is that, having had an awful striker department last season, two left and were replaced by one lad from France who may or not be a decent player in three years time, Ludicrous. Three managers have all failed to get results out of these players. And then as you point out a chaotic and panicky January window sees over the top fees paid for players who the current manager doesn’t want. The absolute accountability for our relegation sits with the Board, absolutely no question in my mind. The more we all get distracted by this or that bit if detail means we miss the bigger picture.

We had a truly appalling 2022, Ralph should have gone in the summer and a quality replacement appointed with the whole summer to build and develop a team. That didn’t happen. However, per the match day thread comments, you could have appointed Pep Guardiola and yet with only three strikers back in August, one who scored two goals last year and a promising French kid who may or may not in three years be a decent player, we were still doomed to have a poor season. Any discussion about keeping Ralph let’s the board off the hook.

As is often the case in life there is a “big picture” and detail. Let’s do detail first: - we did ok first half against a decent mid table team, and could easily have scored from several good chances most notably Theo, Aribo and then Charlie second half. We didn’t of course, but there wasn’t too much wrong with build up despite some restlessness in the fans which given the dire situation we are in is understandable. Woy interview on BBC highlighted how they struggled with us first half. - having seemed to have improved in the early Selles games, Bazanu has regressed and is ill equipped for a relegation dog fight. The guy was playing League One football a year ago, and it shows sometimes. - Having ignited things off the bench last week it was strange to see Djenepo not start, and even stranger having scored at long last that Mara didn’t even come on. I would have started Perraud to add some left foot width and given KWP the right hand side. But just like the players Selles is an inexperienced rookie at this level. Which takes me to the bigger picture…. -……which is that we have had three managers in a season, haven’t looked good enough to stay up under any of them, and managed to FURTHER weaken an already dire striker department in the summer by replacing two players with one, a young kid from France who may or may not be a decent player in three years time. This is criminally negligent by the board, and so with Adams injured there isn’t a single player good enough to play up top in the Premier League. - and the strategy to just sign youngsters is really coming home to roost as, unlike many on here, I genuinely feel sorry for them. A supportive, developmental route to blooding youngsters is to gently introduce them, one at a time, surrounded by experience. We are in danger of ruining some careers, and devaluing financial assets, by exposing them to a relegation fight where their confidence is shattered. Rasmus and co are 100% culpable for this shit show and the second our relegation is confirmed should face up to the fans and media and explain what they have learned and what they will do to put it right.

Bazanu KWP, ABK, Bednarek, Perraud JWP, Lavia Djenepo, Alcaraz, Kamaldeen Theo

Next weekend I think is the pivotal one. We have to beat Palace to have any realistic prospect of staying up, looking at our remaining fixtures. But it could also feel pivotal min terms of momentum, because with the exception of Everton all our rivals have on paper games I expect them to lose. Bournemouth away to Spurs Leicester away to Man City Wet Spam home to Arsenal Forest home to Man Utd Leeds home to Liverpool I do however expect Everton to beat Fulham. Clearly all these games may not go to plan, but if we beat Palace (and that looks harder now given Hodgson impact) I expect us to be three points from safety at the end of the weekend and off the bottom. If by some fortune Everton slip up as well, then we would be one or two points from safety. That will FEEL very different to everyone concerned

After tonight’s results, even more confident that a number of our rivals are going to gain less than a point per remaining game. At this rate 35 points may be enough

So just when it feels like all hope extinguished with that defeat yesterday you look at the table and I still feel a low points haul will be enough. To be clear I think it is likely we are down after yesterday. However I have been arguing that less than half the bottom nine will get more than one point per match in the run in and I still believe that. So what does that mean is needed to stay up? Pessimistic view is that Palace, Wolves and Wet Spam are the ones that stumble with everyone else doing much better. Highly unlikely I think, but that could mean 38 or 39 needed. I can’t see us getting there, requiring five wins from nine games. However, what if it’s the three worst placed teams above us? 36 credibly keeps you up. For Saints that is four wins and a draw, with an improving goal difference and others deteriorating. Most likely route to this, beat Palace, Bournemouth, Fulham and Forest. Nick a point from one of the other five games. Sadly I think yesterday makes this much harder. However many other teams’ fans will be wondering how they get to 36 plus points too. It’s the hope that kills you!

Disappointed that Alacaraz didn’t start, but given injuries to two CBS and Adams I can understand the other selections. Felt a lot like Leeds away. Lacked creativity, beaten by team marginally more clinical. When we step back from the anger, it’s three managers trying in their different ways to make the best of a clusterfuck of a summer where the squad lost two strikers and only brought in one, Mara, who is woefully short of Premier League class. It’s naive to imagine that Adams will play 38 games. And so Rasmus is accountable for transfer activity and management appointments. Ladies and gentlemen that is the long and short of it

Mixed bag of results but reasons to be cheerful: - Leeds and Leicester lose - Forest and Wolves both drop two points in winnable game - Podence likely to be banned for spitting and Neves banned for two games for yellow cards - Fulham, who we have at home, look like prime “on the beach” candidates

Fair point re Crouch and Phillips, albeit the latter had his mind well gone in that second half of the year. But Oakley was crocked, and JWP, Lavia and Alcatraz are far more effective than Delap and a soon to retire Jamie’s Redknapp. The entire back line now is stronger, as Le Saux’s legs had gone

I think this squad is much better than the one that finished in relegation. Remember Beattie was sold in January, and effectively replaced by Karama. Probably the one position that was stronger was Niemmi in goal.

Good post

If we go down I would certainly offer him a year extension. Would be excellent in championship, and if he keeps this form up could be difference in keeping us up

On the contrary. I would love us to win, but also crucial that if we cannot then Wet Spam don’t stretch a points league

Am sat close to Selles. He shouted to JWP, motioned a circle waving his arm around and that prompted the huddle.

Good post. While me may well go down, anyone writing it off now is just not looking at the facts. As you say the last fortnight has seen us move from six points off 12th to four points off 12th. So not a single team in the bottom nine has broken away. I also don’t agree that we have “lost all the six pointers” as some have said. We have done the double over Leicester, beaten Everton away, won our only game so far against Bournemouth and in the cup won away at Palace. It seems to me likely that half of the bottom nine will not get more than a point per game and so I think 36 gives us a great chance. We can still lose half our remaining matches and do that. Before yesterday I said route to staying up was draw against Spurs and Brighton, beat Bournemouth, Fulham, Palace, Wet Spam and Forest and lose to City, Arsenal, Newcastle and Liverpool. Got the first one right! That would give us 39 which surely would do it. So I think we can afford to move one of my “must wins” out of the winning line and finish with four wins and a draw and have a strong chance. Hence saying we can lose half our remaining games and still potentially do it.

Given the circumstances, playing a top four team, losing two centre backs in first 30 mins, coming back from 3-1 down, it is an excellent point. Eight points from six points under Selles, if we keep that ratio going we have a chance of staying up. Best performances for some time from Moi, Theo and good cameos from Mara and Kamaldeen. Moi is much better in a 442 as opposed to a 4231 when he is required to get beyond Adams. What nerve shown by JWP, that really was a pressure penalty!

Good post. I think in addition a couple of general points: - January is an awful window to bring in five players, you tend to have limited targets that are realistic and there is no pre-season to develop and prepare. We all know why this happened, namely gross mismanagement last summer - it is really difficult bedding in players new to the Premier League. It takes time for almost all new signings. But if you rock up to a team that is bottom of the league and really under pressure it’s even harder

Sorry, yes I had a malfunction! And you are right, Bournemouth a great opportunity for three points

In terms of creativity and attacking verve, compare current talent with the last decade in the Premier League, from the first season up to now. This has seen, for example: Adkins/Poch era: Jay Rod (pre injury), Lallana, Lambert, Davis Koeman: Tadic, Pelle, Mane, Davis Puel/Pellegrino/Hughes era: Redmond, Tadic, Gabbiadini, Davis Ralph early years: Ings, Adams, Redmond, a fit Stuart Armstrong The current forward line is genuinely a drop in quality, irrespective of how good the coaching is. This is why, if we go down, Sport Republic are accountable for allowing the season to start so devoid of quality in front line

It’s looking unlikely, but because of how tight things are and the many “six pointers” around us I haven’t yet written it off. But no doubt at all last night made it harder. There are always shock results, but a realistic route that may see us stay up (not certain that it would) is as follows: Beat Wet Spam, Palace, Forest and Fulham Draw with Spurs and Brighton Lose to City, Newcastle, Arsenal, Manure and Liverpool That would get us to 36 points, which most seasons is not enough but maybe this year. I would go as far as to say that if one of the “draw or lose” matches could be flipped to a win I would be confident that 38 or 39 points would do it this year.

No a long car drive, but worth it! Gavin and back four superb, JWP and Lavia very good and I thought a decent performance from Adams. One goal conceded in four PL games is excellent, and continuing to defend that way will give us a real chance. Bigger picture is that we started the weekend six points off 12th placed Palace and we end it just five points. It’s going to be a hell of a relegation dog fight but we finally look like we have the character for it, and fans, players and manager all on the same page which is not the case at Wet Spam and Leicester.

We have won twice and drawn twice since our return to the Premier League up there. I have been there three times in that period and am yet to see us lose!

Without question our goals conceded ratio is helping us to catch up the other strugglers. Interestingly though this improvement from an awful 2022 defensively actually pre-dates Selles, although he has further improved this. It may surprise people that in 2023 (so including the Forest game) our record is nine conceded from eight Premier League games (there is a three in Brentford game within that), or 16 from 14 in all competitions. I was banging on week after week under Ralph that we were always doomed to struggle until we could get our goals conceded down to say 1.2 per game, which if you look back to our four seasons in the top eight under Poch, Koeman and Puel is what really drove the success. An obvious statement but you are always in the game and can take points from scoring no more than one goal. That is what is helping right now