Forester

When you get quotes like this emerging yiu can be fairly sure that one, or both, will be gone from Wet Spam by Xmas

Three weeks later in Saudi apparently

Agree great effort. On the “respect the competition” I am going there but fully expect us to play a different team to Friday because with a huge squad we want minutes in lots of players’ legs, particularly given high likelihood of exits from some playing Friday. I could see the following all not playing Friday but playing at Gillingham which is still a tidy lineup: McCarthy KWP Lyanco Charles Bree Lavia S armstrong Djenopo Adams Aribo Kamaldeen

I think this last paragraph is key. If the window shut now, and nobody left or joined from today, I would be perfectly happy with the current squad for championship. We have cover in all positions as we speak, have proven goal scorers IN THE CHAMPIONSHIP, and would in my opinion be well placed to launch a promotion bid. I also think several of our younger players will be much improved a year on. However we all know there will be plenty of movement and unlike recent seasons for me it is less about who we buy and more about who we retain. The danger of leaving it too late is that we may run out of time to land the replacement when someone moves.

I am certainly not in the “we can’t sell anyone good, ever” camp. And indeed many only sign for clubs of our profile as stepping stones promised through the recruitment process. However….. I absolutely don’t think we should sell players simply who state they want to go. Ignoring those who we would actively wish to exit, and simply hope for a decent price (Diallo, Orsic etc) I think we should be prepared to face down players, agents and potential buyers unless it makes great sense us to sell. And we are in a much better position than say Leicester as we have many younger players with long contracts who will still fetch good fees in a year or two. So I would say, reluctantly, if JWP and KWP attract a great bid then sell. If not, don’t. Both have played a part in having some good times at the club. Salisu and ABK appear hugely negative about staying, and neither are irreplaceable. So I am fine with those going if price is met. However unless someone offers us ludicrous money (sufficiently early in the window to let us replace) I am happy saying to Lavia, Alcaraz, Kamaldeen etc “tough shit, you are going nowhere”. The same with Tella, Tino etc. I can see us raising £90K to £100K selling players in the previous paragraph which is an enormous amount, in addition to their wages. Just for fear of offending some of our wallflowers we don’t need a fire sale. And if we retain the vast majority and bring in a couple of midfielders I am confident we will be right up there, even if no one can be certain it will be quite enough to go up. I would like to see something like the following in August for first game: Bazanu/McCarthy Tino, Bednarek, Lyanco, Perraud Lavia, new midfielder Kamladeen, Alcaraz, Tella Adams

Did you say the same about Sharp, Hammond, Fox, Richardson, Butterfield, Hooveldt, Chaplow? Or did you cheer them to the rooftops but fully appreciate the Premier League needed new signings?

The last manager who preached a possession style was Puel, who despite finishing eighth, taking us to a cup final that we narrowly lost and didn’t concede a goal en route to the final, including a two leg win over Liverpool, was sacked with many fans booing him on the end of season lap. He did all this with Van Dijk injured from Xmas, having sold Pelle and Mane and playing 49 games that season. I remain of the view that it was a mistake (the season that followed under Pellergrino and Hughes was only marginally better than this awful season) but accept most fans disagree. However the point of raking this up again is to say that people have not enjoyed an “anti possession” style either when we lose. Oh to have back the so called boring eight place and cup final. And before some smart arse says “yes but we only got 46 points”, then consider the facts above and that in any season that would be comfortable mid table position

Stupidity demanded that we travelled for this. We left as the stoppage board went up to try and get a connecting train from Brighton. To my utter astonishment we were outnumbered by Brighton “fans” choosing to skip their European lap of honour! Incredible complacency from a club fan base about to realise how you have to enjoy these moments that don’t last forever. Anyway to the game. Aribo again guilty of embezzling his salary. Is he the laziest player ever to line up in a Saints shirt? Cannot believe this guy was in a European cup final a year ago. Thought Lavia was well short of normal standards, assume speculation all getting to him. And McCarthy needs to be better with first (under him, not point blank) and third goal (beaten at near post). Positives were good performance from Theo and return of Tino. That really is it.

I would be very happy with Parker. Spent two seasons in championship with two different clubs and got both promoted. Not too interested in his Premier League record. Deal with that at the right time

McCarthy Bree, Bednarek, Lyanco, KWP JWP, Lavia Alcaraz Walcott, Adams if fit (Mara otherwise) Kamaldeen

I think some of our younger fans are about to go through a rapid learning curve about the championship, and that “what gets you out” is not the same as “what will keep you up”. To unpack that a bit: - there will be a number of players who “aren’t cutting it” in the Premier League, and have been hounded by some fans, who will either find their level permanently in the championship or others who, like Tella and Smallbone, would have benefited from being developed in that division rather than thrown into Premier League from the outset when simply not ready - in the “find their level” camp with limited or no headroom space to grow into being Premier League regulars I suspect this includes Adam Armstrong, Aribo, Bree, Stephens, DCC, Lyanco, Djenepo, Tall Paul, Moi, McCarthy, Perraud, Walcott (at this age) Stuart Armstrong (at this age) - in the “benefit from a year or so there” camp are Bazanu, Tino (because of need to rehabilitate), Larios, Mara, Kamaldeen, Edozie - that leaves people who will probably go for various reasons, mainly money and ambition but also some dead wood (Orsic, Diallo etc). I am hopeful we will hang on to some, like Alacaraz, Bednarek, but others being realistic will not stay. The point being that I would be happy to retain any or all in the first list, while recognising almost none would be good enough if we got back up. From our last time in that division (both going down and coming up) we had some excellent servants who would never cut it in Premier League, such as Kelvin, Richardson, Butterfield, Harding, Fox, Hooveldt, Surman, Hammond, Chaplow, Guly, Sharp, John, Viafara, Saganowski, Wright-Phillips, Makin, Perry (at that age), Jaidi (at that age), Connolly (at that age) So I think the ideal is that we retain say 12-15 of our squad, move about 10 on and bring in 5 or 6 experience players. I get the feeling many people want a “mass clear out” without really thinking through the difference in standard

Me too! A couple I could describe their careers but can’t find name in my mind!

Bazanu or McCarthy Tino, Bednarek, DCC, Perraud New Dm, New DM Smallbone, Alcaraz, Tella, Mara This is not unrealistic in my opinion as August line up. Assumes sale of JWP and Lavia, KWP, Salisu, ABK and Adams. The big gap is clear and we need a Dean Hammond type character who is decent, but not special, on the ball but really puts a shift in

Championship full back of the year by all accounts. Some of our fans need to wise up that a small number of “will never make it at top level” can be highly effective in championship. By way of evidence m’lud I submit the following exhibits: Kelvin, Butterfield, Richardson, Hooveldt, Harding, Fox, Hammond, Guly and Sharp

Assuming we do go down, and being realistic about some players who will command big fees/attitudinally/need to go or want out, I would expect the following to leave: ABK, Salisu, AMN, JWP, Lavia, Moi, Orsic and Adams. Moi (out of contract) and AMN (loan only) save on wages and the others in addition to lowering wage bill probably would bring in over £120 million. That is more than double the drop in income from first year out of Premier League and so we could invest a decent chunk of that. I would be happy to see the following remain, some of whom are not good enough for Premier League but I think would do a job in championship: Bazanu, McCarthy, Tino, Bree, Larios, Perraud, Bednarek, Stephens, Lyanco, DCC, Diallo, Aribo, Smallbone, Djenepo, Edozie, Armstrong (S), Alcaraz, Tella, Armstrong (A), Theo, Kamaldeen, Mara, Tall Paul The gaps for me, if everyone on my retain list stayed, are biggest in central midfield where last time round Hammond and Schneiderlein were terrific. We would need to bring in two quality players for that department and at least one proven goal scorer. But I don’t think much more is needed. The goalkeeper and full back departments are stronger than last time in championship, several good attacking midfielder or winger options and centre backs ok for that division perhaps needing one more. Purely for example, but both were indeed in championship last season for Bournemouth, if you put Lerma and Billing in the middle of the park in that team in my opinion it would be decent. That type of profile player.

Correct, I went there not knowing if we would exist a few weeks later. And then Marcus arrived….

To be fair to CB you are all over the place my friend. Your reference to 20 points down and Redmond is two years later when Puel replaced Koeman. The original post was talking about Poch leaving and those five players listed going. They were replaced by, amongst others, Pelle, Tadic, Mane, Bertrand and Cedric under Koeman.

Yes this is a good post. Frankly the main reason we are going down is that, having had an awful striker department last season, two left and were replaced by one lad from France who may or not be a decent player in three years time, Ludicrous. Three managers have all failed to get results out of these players. And then as you point out a chaotic and panicky January window sees over the top fees paid for players who the current manager doesn’t want. The absolute accountability for our relegation sits with the Board, absolutely no question in my mind. The more we all get distracted by this or that bit if detail means we miss the bigger picture.

We had a truly appalling 2022, Ralph should have gone in the summer and a quality replacement appointed with the whole summer to build and develop a team. That didn’t happen. However, per the match day thread comments, you could have appointed Pep Guardiola and yet with only three strikers back in August, one who scored two goals last year and a promising French kid who may or may not in three years be a decent player, we were still doomed to have a poor season. Any discussion about keeping Ralph let’s the board off the hook.

As is often the case in life there is a “big picture” and detail. Let’s do detail first: - we did ok first half against a decent mid table team, and could easily have scored from several good chances most notably Theo, Aribo and then Charlie second half. We didn’t of course, but there wasn’t too much wrong with build up despite some restlessness in the fans which given the dire situation we are in is understandable. Woy interview on BBC highlighted how they struggled with us first half. - having seemed to have improved in the early Selles games, Bazanu has regressed and is ill equipped for a relegation dog fight. The guy was playing League One football a year ago, and it shows sometimes. - Having ignited things off the bench last week it was strange to see Djenepo not start, and even stranger having scored at long last that Mara didn’t even come on. I would have started Perraud to add some left foot width and given KWP the right hand side. But just like the players Selles is an inexperienced rookie at this level. Which takes me to the bigger picture…. -……which is that we have had three managers in a season, haven’t looked good enough to stay up under any of them, and managed to FURTHER weaken an already dire striker department in the summer by replacing two players with one, a young kid from France who may or may not be a decent player in three years time. This is criminally negligent by the board, and so with Adams injured there isn’t a single player good enough to play up top in the Premier League. - and the strategy to just sign youngsters is really coming home to roost as, unlike many on here, I genuinely feel sorry for them. A supportive, developmental route to blooding youngsters is to gently introduce them, one at a time, surrounded by experience. We are in danger of ruining some careers, and devaluing financial assets, by exposing them to a relegation fight where their confidence is shattered. Rasmus and co are 100% culpable for this shit show and the second our relegation is confirmed should face up to the fans and media and explain what they have learned and what they will do to put it right.

Bazanu KWP, ABK, Bednarek, Perraud JWP, Lavia Djenepo, Alcaraz, Kamaldeen Theo

Next weekend I think is the pivotal one. We have to beat Palace to have any realistic prospect of staying up, looking at our remaining fixtures. But it could also feel pivotal min terms of momentum, because with the exception of Everton all our rivals have on paper games I expect them to lose. Bournemouth away to Spurs Leicester away to Man City Wet Spam home to Arsenal Forest home to Man Utd Leeds home to Liverpool I do however expect Everton to beat Fulham. Clearly all these games may not go to plan, but if we beat Palace (and that looks harder now given Hodgson impact) I expect us to be three points from safety at the end of the weekend and off the bottom. If by some fortune Everton slip up as well, then we would be one or two points from safety. That will FEEL very different to everyone concerned

After tonight’s results, even more confident that a number of our rivals are going to gain less than a point per remaining game. At this rate 35 points may be enough

So just when it feels like all hope extinguished with that defeat yesterday you look at the table and I still feel a low points haul will be enough. To be clear I think it is likely we are down after yesterday. However I have been arguing that less than half the bottom nine will get more than one point per match in the run in and I still believe that. So what does that mean is needed to stay up? Pessimistic view is that Palace, Wolves and Wet Spam are the ones that stumble with everyone else doing much better. Highly unlikely I think, but that could mean 38 or 39 needed. I can’t see us getting there, requiring five wins from nine games. However, what if it’s the three worst placed teams above us? 36 credibly keeps you up. For Saints that is four wins and a draw, with an improving goal difference and others deteriorating. Most likely route to this, beat Palace, Bournemouth, Fulham and Forest. Nick a point from one of the other five games. Sadly I think yesterday makes this much harder. However many other teams’ fans will be wondering how they get to 36 plus points too. It’s the hope that kills you!

Disappointed that Alacaraz didn’t start, but given injuries to two CBS and Adams I can understand the other selections. Felt a lot like Leeds away. Lacked creativity, beaten by team marginally more clinical. When we step back from the anger, it’s three managers trying in their different ways to make the best of a clusterfuck of a summer where the squad lost two strikers and only brought in one, Mara, who is woefully short of Premier League class. It’s naive to imagine that Adams will play 38 games. And so Rasmus is accountable for transfer activity and management appointments. Ladies and gentlemen that is the long and short of it