Forester

Lots of passionate certainty expressed on this thread! Surely the fair and balanced summary would be: - it has been difficult for promoted teams to stay up for many years, arguably harder by the year because of the financial rewards in being part of the Premier League increasing, and they usually start as bookie favourites to go down - this has become exacerbated by financial fair play rules in recent years which means that the “go for broke” strategy can’t easily be an option - we appear particularly vulnerable in the striker department, with very few goals at the top level in the squad -however, it is not INEVITABLE that the promoted teams go down, as was amply demonstrated when we were relegated and not a single promoted team dropped - the margin between the promoted teams and Everton, Palace, Wolves, Brentford and Bournemouth is not ENORMOUS, and top quality coaching, both midweek and in-game management, can make the difference at the margins. This was best illustrated last season I think at Brentford and Bournemouth - and this works both ways, so mistakes are possible at our relegation rivals which may lower the bar needed to clear - as a consequence it is increasingly credible to imagine that a team can stay up winning eight or nine games with six or seven draws. These wins could be wholly achieved in fixtures between these names teams, but we have already played two such fixtures and picked up one point - so tomorrow is huge, and another defeat I think will just demand a change. I really hope it doesn’t happen as I like Martin

If we really want to bypass the press we need to play Stewart and allow Ramsdale to periodically play the ball long. It was noticeable how this option was non existent with Fraser and Archer part of a front three, with Archer:s hold up play poor. I would be tempted to play Archer on the left and Stewart centre forward.

I posted last week that defeats to both Ipswich and Bournemouth would, sadly, see the Board act and change manager, ahead of Arsenal away and international break, which looks like a useful three week period to execute a change. I have no insight on whether this is/was correct, but it’s what I expect. So how does yesterday leave us? Case for the defence I think is 1. We have seen huge changes in squad personnel. Of the 16 players who appeared yesterday, only 6 played any material role in last season (ie Dibbling and Stewart didn’t). Martin has only had five games with them, and some of them have signed after the league season started, plus two cup games that have been won. So this makes it sound premature to consider. 2. There are some encouraging signs of improvement, with Fernandes, Lallana, Dibbling and Taylor all improving the balance of the team since August games. So does this just need some more time? 3. My view of yesterday, and I think the XG stats support this, is most times that game being replayed would have been a win. However, Archer fails to take either big chance, as he did with last week’s penalty. In other words the team created enough. And the deflection most weeks doesn’t play out the way it did. 4. We now have a point, and there are six teams without a win still. So early days. However, I still think he is still in the danger zone (sadly, as I like him). The reality is we will need to win probably nine games this season, and Forest and Ipswich at home are surely credible candidates. Bournemouth needs to produce at least a point, as otherwise following likely defeat at Arsenal we will have one point from seven games. And as cruel as it would seem (as it did when Adkins left), we have to give it everything in staying up. The key factor I think for the Board if we lose at Bournemouth will be that making a change with over 30 games left and others still in touch means we can attract a decent list of candidates to replace. However if we leave this to the pre-Christmas games the opportunity shrinks. I hope we win at Bournemouth, are talking about four points from two games, and are on the up. But I still think Board will be more ruthless than some believe if this doesn’t happen.

A pretty mean spirited set of comments on here. Both teams made plenty of changes, we were away from home, and looked much the better team. Thought we were more creative than against Forest, Brentford and Manure (after the first 25 mins on Saturday). Positives for me: - I thought the whole back four played well, and Wood looked a proper player unlike the Cardiff game. From yesterday I can see why Martin likes him. - we are well stocked for full backs, with both Taylor and Bree (in that order) looking good options if we want to or need to make a change. Not all clubs battling relegation may have that depth. - Lallana looked good in a Pirlo-style holding midfielder role, running the game as did Erikson I thought for Manure Saturday. I would start him alongside Downes rather than Big Les on Saturday (Les more suited to Arsenal away). - Cornet starting to build up sharpness having not played much football lately. Thought he looked much better than Saturday. - I thought McCarthy failed to dominate his area for their goal, but that one costly error apart played well. Of concern was Armstrong who seems low on confidence, and BBD is busy but not yet effectual. But overall a good night

Per comments on the Manure thread, if we lost to both Ipswich and Born Muff I would expect him to go. Assuming we would then lose to Arsenal regardless of who was in charge, that would be zero points from seven games. I hope this doesn’t happen, as I would like him to succeed. However we cannot simply write the season off, and this would enable a change to be made in the week building up to Arsenal and then use the international break to get the new man in. I think it unlikely that we would be more than six points adrift of safety and we could attract a manager to have 31 games including the January window on this basis. As others have said, leave it much longer and the list of applicants gets very thin. Fingers crossed all of this becomes unnecessary.

Agree with this, I think back to back defeats against Ipswich and Bournemouth would see them pull the trigger, install caretaker for Arsenal and have that week and the international break to sort the change. I hope this won’t happen, but agree this is not going to be something the owners will ignore if it continues

Amongst all the doom and gloom, there are some interesting and good selection dilemmas: - which two from three good full backs/wing backs, with Suga looking good, but Taylor offering the chance for KWP to revert to right hand side? - stick with back three, where we have actually looked defensively solid (the third goal at Brentford was rank bad defending but we had back four by then), or try back four? Which of three centre backs to drop? - dependent on formation, how to get our likely most creative players on pitch in Lallana, Dibbling, Fernandez, Cornet and Fraser without overdoing it? - play BBD as central striker, most likely to hold up the ball and play back to goal, or go for Archer? Everyone will have their own answers, but it isn't clear and easy, and Martin will himself need to work through these to understand his best team and that may take more than one game since the signings all arrived. But time is ticking away

If the next batch of games are a disaster, have no doubt he will be gone. We fired Jones weeks after giving him a four year deal

This is a good post. I was a bit worried last year RM was a one trick pony, but he showed good adaptation at the end of the season and got us over the line. What you remind us all is that, just as young players make mistakes, so do young managers, but the good ones learn from them. He has earned the right to work on things in these next batch of fixtures. Let us see how he responds. If he doesn’t learn, we keep losing in same fashion against Ipswich and Bournemouth, then we will have to make a change. But I hope and believe he will have reflected and that he can build from this.

In my opinion, way too much focus on formation and not enough on the absolute clear main problem. If you are careless with the ball at edge of our own area you will get punished by Premier League players. End of. You can be careful or reckless with three or four at the back. We won’t be a team who scores three or four goals most weeks, and so our only route to safety is probably keeping eight to ten clean sheets this season. We have zero chance of doing that believing we are Man City.

Cool, and is that similar to, or fantastically less than, the £228 Brighton brought in for those four players?

Responding to your two posts: JWP + Tino + Lavia = £102 million. And the Brighton figure was for four players! The “dog shite” comment was about two to three years of poor value signings. Orsic, Tall Paul, Kamaldeen, Diallo, Lyanco, DCC, the list goes on. The gap is absolutely MASSIVE now and that is because Brighton have made good choices and we have made woeful ones. Look at their managerial appointments over recent years compared to ours. It won’t be like this for ever, but right now this is where we are at.

You sound astonished that there is a gulf between Brighton and Saints’ pulling power. Here are a few things that may help: - we splashed millions on absolute dog shite signings two to three years ago, along with paying off poor managerial appointments - we then got relegated, missing out on full Premier League money last year. Meanwhile Brighton enjoyed European football - Brighton have in the last few years sold Bassouma, Caciedo, Cucarella and Trossard for a total of £228 million. That excludes fees for other players, it is just those four listed. So when you say “for whatever reason”, I hope this has helped to crack the puzzle!

Lots of wrist slitting on here. Will try and bring a bit of balance, albeit I am as frustrated at our lack of creativity as anyone: - we are averaging one goal conceded after two games. If we maintain that it would be excellent. Last time in this league we needed to score three goals to win a game - while it necessitates taking up a playing position, the three centre backs make us look fairly solid. If we retain KWP we are well stocked in the full back positions - it looks like we are about to upgrade our goalkeeper position, albeit McCarthy did just fine today. - Downes looked excellent today after the first fifteen minutes And so there are some positives, despite how everyone feels tonight. Last time we were promoted I recall we lost our first four games. However, we need to add a cutting edge and creativity in final third without doubt. I feel we should try to bring in a target man (or keep Tall Paul) as an option, not always from the start. Stewart is unlikely to be fit enough after the delay. And we also need to find a more productive wide man than current options. We may only need to win nine games this season and collect a few draws. The margins are tight, and Everton, Leicester and Ipswich all look likely to struggle to do that too. Long way to go

That team would struggle to reach ten points. The Premier League is many times stronger than was the case back then, and that was one of our weaker line ups of that era in my view

I am available to drive Mara there personally

I have seen the City, Sunderland and Burnley documentaries. This one shows some surprising/controversial stuff, and is I think relevant to us now, ie relegated team having been in Premier League some time, bouncing back and then staring into the gulf between two divisions. Add in similar style of play and it’s spooky! Hopefully a different outcome…..!

I posted this on June 9th and still think it is playing out this way. We won’t know where we are until after window shuts. If you want a glimpse of how end of windows work, watch the superb Burnley documentary on Sky Sports.

Good, if true

You neglected to comment on the transfer fee part!

Not sure my kids would know what a call box phone is, but I remember learning all of this from my dad phoning home from French holiday as a teenager! I actually thought Dixon and Speedie would be good signings! They would have been in the 80s!

I hate to point this out, but do you think it would be helpful either to Baz’s confidence or a future transfer fee when we sell him, if we saw a different quote spun, along the lines of “Saints have decided Bazanu is shit, and need to get a loan in quickly with a view to getting rid of Bazanu”?😂😂😂

Ramsdale as a year long loan is credible and would be a good fit I think. Big character

As I mentioned in post a couple of weeks ago, we won’t really know where we are until September with Euros, season starting a bit later etc. Current thoughts: - Is Bednarek staying? If yes, and assuming we get rid of DCC permanently, then I think we are sorted for centre backs with six including ABK. If all are still here at end of window I think you may see Edwards sent on loan to championship until January. - is KWP staying? Rumours suggest not. If so we obviously need to replace him, and in my opinion sign another full back so that Bree is number four in that department not number three as I would sell or loan out Manning, and loan out Larios and Meghoma. - is Downes signing? Either way, we need to sign two, not one, quality holding midfielders ideally with Downes as one. Charles is not ready for Premier League, and I would loan him to championship. - is O’Riley signing? If so we have enough attacking midfielders along with Aribo, Smallbone and Lallana. - is Adams staying? If so, would sell Mara and sign additional two strikers. If Adams goes, we need three. - is Fraser signing and Kamaldeen staying? If so we have enough wingers. If not, each one needs replacing. We also have a gap that Brooks was filling - we still need to sign a top keeper and McCarthy be number two. Sell Lumley. So still a hell of a lot of activity needed.

Mixed views on this as season ticket holder with family of three tickets, one of which is my elderly dad who needs some help on this stuff. And am influenced by my mate who is a Spurs season ticket holder (family have four tickets) which is a club that has run with this approach for a few years. Trying to be balanced here: - good news is not waiting on Royal Mail for cup tickets being sent out - I also get club saves costs with no mailing, paper and plastic, eco friendly eg etc - the transfer device is potentially useful if my daughter is travelling independently and saves faffing about to hand her card etc - less positive is my mate has had experience of waiting for a couple of tickets for match day to drop into the app and not receiving it until two hours before game, which is pretty stressful! Hopefully our system will be bullet proof…! So people saying “it’s just like going to a gig” is not the same as I go to plenty and they don’t arrive as late as 12 hours before in my experience - also you only realise how all of this is tricky for some elderly or less able fans when you actually experience it So pro’s and cons. Would be way better if for season tickets they simply sent the QR code that works for the whole season through in one go