They might have some talented individuals, but they haven't managed anything resembling a surprise win all season. Both Burnley and Watford have shown recently that they are capable of winning games they are expected to lose. Everton just don't have that ability. Since FL took over they have got a very laboured FA cup win against Brentford and beaten a very poor Leeds still playing kamikaze football under Bielsa. In every other game they have been utter shit, and I see no sign of that changing anytime soon.
Look at their fixtures and ask yourself honestly where are their points going to come from?