SaintBobby

Updated again, with "what we need" at the top, in light of Wigan's defeat by Swansea.

Were flying. Now very likely to be in the Championship next year.

Ok, when did you realise Wigan were having a good Cup run? :-) I hear they are having a VERY good cup run. Btw, I still think it's quite likely that one of Norwich, Newcastle and Sunderland will finish on 39 points or less. So this isn't just about Wigan...

This. I'd love Wigan to stay up - just not at our expense! Great club, great chairman, great manager, wonderful (albeit not very numerous) fans and they play football properly. What's not to like? If Saints are out of danger, I really hope they leapfrog Newcastle or Sunderland.

The odds on betfair are now 104/1 on Saints being relegated. (with apologies to those who piled on at 40/1, the market price is now much better if you think we're going down!)

Put out some "experimental" players (e.g. Mayuka to start?). #onthebeach

Original post update in light of tonight's result.

What did you predict? Have you changed your mind? (Or do you still think, perhaps, that we need 41 points "to be safe"?) Here's your chance to alter your prediction and/or explain why you've changed your mind. I'm happy to stick with my view - expressed over many weeks - that 39 points (and our good GD) would always be enough. Actually, I think it quite likely that the team that ends up in 18th place will only have 38 points (or less) and a very poor goal difference. But I'm very interested to hear from those who still think that 40 points or more might be needed. Or that the bookmakers are mad and give no indication of future outcomes. Or those who still think that there is a huge wave of agreement in favour of their theory that 41 points or more will be needed. Or those who still think that Saints will be relegated. Please contribute any smug "I was right" posts below. Or use this opportunity to make a mea culpa. The floor is yours. Happy days.

Pretty much, yes. Looked iffy after a horrid set of results on Saturday. But it's nearly impossible to see us getting relegated now, even if we lose our two remaining games 8-0. We may yet finish in the top half. But I think that's a bit of a stretch, tbh.

Wow, really? Tell me your lottery numbers and I'll avoid them!

You're right that GD could come into play if we lose our remaining games 8-0 or something insane. It's technically possible. But as long as we enter the last game of the season: 1. 3 points clear of Wigan OR 2. Level with Villa and ahead of Wigan then, barring ludicrous defeats by 7 or 8 goals, we are safe.

Yep, worrying but not panic stations. I do think bookies odds are a good reflection of actual probablities (far better than those of a ranter on a message board, anyway) If Wigan win tonight, the odds on Saints will shorten to about 16/1.

The bookies make this pretty much as close to a toss-up as is mathematically possible. http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/sunderland-v-southampton/winner

The difference for me - although I was mortified by Adkins' sacking - is that I could never see Nigel getting us to much above 14th/15th in the top flight. I think MP might well do better than that. Not necessarily, but very possibly. The untested question is strength in attracting top players. I'm open-minded on this, but think MP may be stronger than Adkins here too.

Because the situation this year is very different to having to beat Man United. Having to get one point from Sunderland or Stoke is a bit easier than having to get 3 from Man Utd. Also, knowing that getting zero points might well be enough also helps. In 04/05, it went down to any 3 from 4 to be relegated, if I remember rightly, on the last day. This time, it's any 1 from 7 (or possibly eight). And 4 of those 7 are definitely going to be below us whatever happens tomorrow. The angst about why we aren't in the top 10? Why are we in a relegation scrap instead? etc etc is largely guff. There's virtually no difference between 10th and a relegation scrap. HTH.

He hasn't got too many players left to kick around. They've been unlucky with injuries and also, maybe, with suspensions - missing Fletcher, Cattermole, Sessegnon and Gardner is like us misisng Lambert, Schneiderlin, Lallana and Cork.

Nope. About 1% IMHO.

If you put money on at 100/1 (I assume you did), you can now lay it off at a big profit anyway.

A win now 100% guarantees safety. A draw is fine though. As long as it's level-pegging, I'm happy to make a "no more goals" prayer.

You want Wigan to beat Swansea????

Looks to me now that 39 points (and a very good GD) is about a 60-40 bet on staying up. 40 points (and a very good GD) is about 99.9%. I'm struggling to find any way at all that Saints need 41 points or more. This will shift a lot depending on the Wigan v Swansea game. If Wigan lose, 39 points is surely safe. If Wigan draw, 39 points is near-as-damnit safe. (in both cases, they'd need to avoid defeat at Arsenal on the 14th to catch us). If Wigan win, you're perhaps looking at 40 or maybe - in some utterly mad scenario - 41 (but even then, there's be a reasonable-ish chance of staying up on 39)

Why are you "totally convinced"? Are you 100% certain that Wigan will get 5 points from 3 games AND Norwich will get 2 points from 2 games AND Newcastle will get 2 points from 2 games. To be "totally convinced" of this strikes me as a bit mad tbh. I'd like to place a bet with you if I may, presumably you'd offer 10,000/1 that 39 isn't enough?

Saints remain about 30/1 to be relegated. Wigan have drifted to slight odds against (about 5/4). Norwich remain about 3/1 and Newcastle about 9/2. Sunderland have come in to about 6/1 (they were evens favourites to beat Stoke, so a draw and losing Gardner isn't great). Villa are generally slightly shorter odds than Saints - about 25/1. Apologies for those who think bookies odds are utterly irrelevant. The Wigan v Swansea match will swing the odds hugely. For all the teams listed above.

I'll try and update as things unfold. The purpose of this thread was to explain how Saints might be safe before the final day though.

If Wigan fail to win, we're basically safe. This is a massive game - for the fans of about 6 or 7 clubs. Sky viewing figures tomorrow may be through the roof.