SaintBobby

What did you predict? Have you changed your mind? (Or do you still think, perhaps, that we need 41 points "to be safe"?) Here's your chance to alter your prediction and/or explain why you've changed your mind. I'm happy to stick with my view - expressed over many weeks - that 39 points (and our good GD) would always be enough. Actually, I think it quite likely that the team that ends up in 18th place will only have 38 points (or less) and a very poor goal difference. But I'm very interested to hear from those who still think that 40 points or more might be needed. Or that the bookmakers are mad and give no indication of future outcomes. Or those who still think that there is a huge wave of agreement in favour of their theory that 41 points or more will be needed. Or those who still think that Saints will be relegated. Please contribute any smug "I was right" posts below. Or use this opportunity to make a mea culpa. The floor is yours. Happy days.

Yep, we'd need to rely on either (a) getting a point v Stoke or (b) Wigan failing to beat Villa. But an accumulator bet on the 4 results you list would give odds of something like 80/1 - and even then we'll probably survive on the last day of the season (only a Wigan win and Saints defeat would send us down)

1. Oh no 2. Oh phew....

You do realise that we are safe on 39 points unless Wigan beat Arsenal on Tues 14th? i.e. to say Wigan will fail to beat Arsenal is mad. You'll find the odds on that game here: http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/arsenal-v-wigan/winner Look at all those utter loonies putting money on Arsenal to win or on the draw! What utter cretins! All you need to do is remortgage your house (and/or sell a load of possessions and/or take out a loan) and put £100,000 on Wigan to win and by midnight on Tuesday, you're certain to be a millionaire. What could possibly go wrong?

Quoted for truth.

Bless. So cute. You still think we need 41-43?

J-Rod v Liverpool?

I was thrilled when we signed him. But he has been our most disappointing player of the season given the transfer fee and the expectations. I'd get rid of him if we can get our money back or make a slight (15%?) loss. Hope I'm proved wrong and he becomes a superstar in his 2nd season. I also suspect that Cortese will be inclined to stick with him unless we get a tremendous offer.

Agreed. That's my preference too. But, sadly, it does look like being Wigan. As long as it's not Saints, I'm happy...

Agreed. Actually this really should be where we finish now (if we beat Stoke at SMS). The good news is that we're now safe to all intents and purposes. The difference between c.10th and c.16th could be wafer thin though.

You've got me worried now. Oh....

Sounds about right. Hard to see us catching West Ham in 10th (their last game is at home to Reading). And we now can't make 9th.

This. One of the great things about these sort of web thingies is you can see a person's track record. Hindsight is indeed 20-20 vision. But the joy of a forum such as this is that you can measure exactly what someone's foresight was....

Updated again, with "what we need" at the top, in light of Wigan's defeat by Swansea.

Were flying. Now very likely to be in the Championship next year.

Ok, when did you realise Wigan were having a good Cup run? :-) I hear they are having a VERY good cup run. Btw, I still think it's quite likely that one of Norwich, Newcastle and Sunderland will finish on 39 points or less. So this isn't just about Wigan...

This. I'd love Wigan to stay up - just not at our expense! Great club, great chairman, great manager, wonderful (albeit not very numerous) fans and they play football properly. What's not to like? If Saints are out of danger, I really hope they leapfrog Newcastle or Sunderland.

The odds on betfair are now 104/1 on Saints being relegated. (with apologies to those who piled on at 40/1, the market price is now much better if you think we're going down!)

Put out some "experimental" players (e.g. Mayuka to start?). #onthebeach

Original post update in light of tonight's result.

What did you predict? Have you changed your mind? (Or do you still think, perhaps, that we need 41 points "to be safe"?) Here's your chance to alter your prediction and/or explain why you've changed your mind. I'm happy to stick with my view - expressed over many weeks - that 39 points (and our good GD) would always be enough. Actually, I think it quite likely that the team that ends up in 18th place will only have 38 points (or less) and a very poor goal difference. But I'm very interested to hear from those who still think that 40 points or more might be needed. Or that the bookmakers are mad and give no indication of future outcomes. Or those who still think that there is a huge wave of agreement in favour of their theory that 41 points or more will be needed. Or those who still think that Saints will be relegated. Please contribute any smug "I was right" posts below. Or use this opportunity to make a mea culpa. The floor is yours. Happy days.

Pretty much, yes. Looked iffy after a horrid set of results on Saturday. But it's nearly impossible to see us getting relegated now, even if we lose our two remaining games 8-0. We may yet finish in the top half. But I think that's a bit of a stretch, tbh.

Wow, really? Tell me your lottery numbers and I'll avoid them!

You're right that GD could come into play if we lose our remaining games 8-0 or something insane. It's technically possible. But as long as we enter the last game of the season: 1. 3 points clear of Wigan OR 2. Level with Villa and ahead of Wigan then, barring ludicrous defeats by 7 or 8 goals, we are safe.

Yep, worrying but not panic stations. I do think bookies odds are a good reflection of actual probablities (far better than those of a ranter on a message board, anyway) If Wigan win tonight, the odds on Saints will shorten to about 16/1.