SaintBobby

Who did Harry sign for QPR in January and for what transfer fees (and alleged wages?) Wasn't that enough money to buy "quality"?

He was taken off today when we needed to chase the game and it worked. If we fall behind, sacrificing a DM with 20 minutes to go seems tactically wise to me and not a swipe at Cork.

Well, not quite! But we do already know the following: Guaranteed to win the league: 112 points (37 wins and 1 draw means no one can be ahead of you) Guaranteed to qualify for Champs L: 94 points (31 wins, 1 draw and 6 defeats means no more than 3 teams can be ahead of you) Guaranteed to qualify for Europa: 88 points (29 wins, 1 draw and 8 defeats means no more than 4 teams can be ahead of you) Guaranteed to finish in top ten: 58 points (19 wins, 1 draw and 18 defeats means no more than 9 teams can be ahead of you) Guaranteed to avoid the drop: 58 points (technically, all teams could win 19 and lose 19 and all 20 teams would be on 57 points and separated only by GD) Guaranteed to be relegated: 5 points (technically, the bottom four teams could all draw 6 and lose 32, so 4th from bottom could be on 6 points and stay up on GD) I seriously need to get out more....

I wonder if Shaw ends up as a left midfielder/winger?

I recklessly suggested we could afford to experiment against Sunderland. Truth is that with so much prize money at stake, we should play our best starting XI. Not against some experimentation on the bench, but we should only use untried players if we have definitely won or definitely lost (and if we've definitely lost then to be confident we aren't risking heading for a 12-0 defeat!)

Nice bit of research. Well, it is possible we end up tied with Fulham then. Wonder when such a thing last happened?

Agreed. Completely agreed. That was pure gold.

Tbh, I can't remember exactly what you said or how definite you were that we weren't going to finish 10th. If someone yesterday lunchtime had said "There's absolutely no way Man City will win the FA Cup. Not a chance. Not a prayer. Absolute snowball in hell odds", then I think that person would look pretty stupid even though Wigan edged it 1-0.

It's unlikely, but not totally impossible. It needs 4 results to go our way (although we want the clear favourites to win 3 of them). If you put an accumulator bet on it (Saints, Arsenal, Man City and Reading all to win), it comes out at about a 25/1 shot.

Ok, this was a nerdy and pointless waste of two hours of my time. And I'm not sure I've got this quite right. But here goes.... TO FINISH 10th Saints need to beat Stoke and ALL of the following to happen: 1. West Ham lose at home to Reading 2. Norwich fail to beat Man City away 3. Newcastle fail to beat Arsenal at home 4. Fulham fail to beat Swansea away by 2 more goals than we beat Stoke by TO FINISH 11th Saints need to beat Stoke and need EXACTLY 3 of the following 4 things to happen (if all happen, we go up a place, for each additional one that doesn't, we go down a place) 1. West Ham lose at home to Reading 2. Norwich fail to beat Man City away 3. Newcastle fail to beat Arsenal at home 4. Fulham fail to beat Swansea away by 2 more goals than we beat Stoke by TO FINISH 12th Saints beat Stoke and then we need EXACTLY 2 of the following 4 things to happen (for each additional one that happens, we go up a place, for each additional one that doesn't, we go down a place) 1. West Ham lose at home to Reading 2. Norwich fail to beat Man City away 3. Newcastle fail to beat Arsenal at home 4. Fulham fail to beat Swansea away by 2 more goals than we beat Stoke by OR Saints need to draw with Stoke and need ALL of the following 5 things to happen 1. Norwich lose away at Man City 2. Newcastle lose at home to Arsenal 3. Fulham fail to beat Swansea away 4. Villa fail to beat Wigan away 5. Sunderland to fail to beat Spurs away TO FINISH 13th Saints beat Stoke AND EXACTLY 1 of the following 4 things happens (for each additional one that happens, we go up a place, if none happen, we go down a place) 1. West Ham lose at home to Reading 2. Norwich fail to beat Man City away 3. Newcastle fail to beat Arsenal at home 4. Fulham fail to beat Swansea away by 2 more goals than we beat Stoke by OR Saints draw with Stoke and need EXACTLY 4 of the following 5 things to happen (if all 5 happen, we finish 12th, if only 3 or fewer happen we drop to 14th, if only 2 happen we drop the 15th etc) 1. Norwich lose away to Man City 2. Newcastle lose at home to Arsenal 3. Fulham fail to beat Swansea away 4. Villa fail to beat Wigan away 5. Sunderland fail to beat Spurs away TO FINISH 14th Saints will finish at least 14th if we win our final game - irrespective of results elsewhere. OR Saints draw with Stoke and EXACTLY 3 of the following 5 things happen (for each additional one that happens, we go up a place, for each additional one that doesn't, we go down a place) 1. Norwich lose away to Man City 2. Newcastle lose at home to Arsenal 3. Fulham fail to beat Swansea away 4. Villa fail to beat Wigan away 5. Sunderland fail to beat Spurs away OR Saints lose to Stoke and ALL of the following 3 things happen: 1. Wigan fail to beat Arsenal but do beat Villa 2. Fulham lose to Swansea away (and Saints don't lose by 3 more than Swansea) 3. Sunderland lose to Spurs away OR draw with Spurs away and Saints only lose by one goal. TO FINISH 15th Saints draw with Stoke and EXACTLY 2 of the following 5 things happen (for each additional one that happens, we go up a place, for each additional one that doesn't, we go down a place) 1. Norwich lose away to Man City 2. Newcastle lose at home to Arsenal 3. Fulham fail to beat Swansea away 4. Villa fail to beat Wigan away 5. Sunderland fail to beat Spurs away Or Saints lose to Stoke and ONE AND ONLY 1 of the following 4 things happen 1. Wigan beat both Arsenal and Villa 2. Wigan v Villa is a draw 3. Fulham lose to Swansea away (and Saints don't lose by 3 more than Swansea) 4. Sunderland lose to Spurs away OR draw with Spurs away and Saints only lose by one goal. TO FINISH 16th Saints draw with Stoke and ONLY 1 of the following 5 things happen (for each additional one that happens, we go up a place, if none happen we go down a place) 1. Norwich lose away to Man City 2. Newcastle lose at home to Arsenal 3. Fulham fail to beat Swansea away 4. Villa fail to beat Wigan away 5. Sunderland fail to beat Spurs away Or Saints lose to Stoke and EXACTLY 2 of the following 3 things happen 1. Wigan beat both Arsenal & Villa OR Wigan v Villa is a draw 2. Fulham lose to Swansea away (and Saints don't lose by 3 more than Swansea) 3. Sunderland lose to Spurs away OR draw with Spurs away and Saints only lose by one goal. TO FINISH 17th Saints draw with Stoke and ALL of the following 5 things happen (for each one that doesn't we go up a place) 1. Norwich draw or win away to Man City 2. Newcastle draw or win at home to Arsenal 3. Fulham beat Swansea away 4. Villa beat Wigan away 5. Sunderland beat Spurs away OR Saints lose to Stoke and ALL of the following 3 things happen 1. Wigan beat both Arsenal and Villa OR Villa v Wigan is a draw 2. Fulham manage to avoid losing to Swansea by 2 goals more than Saints have lost to Stoke 3. Sunderland win at Spurs or draw at Spurs if Saints lose by more than one goal (NOTE re: Fulham: If Saints win 2-1 (or 3-2 or 4-2) and Fulham win 3-0 (or 4-1 or 5-1) then the two teams will be tied on points, goal difference and goals scored and our head-to-head results are also a 3-3 aggregate draw. I'm guessing Fulham then overtake Saints on away goals (their 2 to our 1) in our head-to-heads, but I've ignored this eventuality) TO FINISH 18th (FOR THE ABSOLUTE BEDWETTERS!): ALL of the following would need to happen: 1. Wigan need to beat Arsenal on Tuesday 2. Wigan need to beat Villa on Sunday 3. Saints need to lose by at least 11 goals more than Villa lose by (and by 12 goals more than Villa unless Villa contrive to score at least 4 goals and still lose at Wigan) 4. Spurs would need to fail to beat Sunderland at White Hart Lane.

It's potentially only 12-0, if Villa lose 5-4 or 6-5 or something mental. But this is so far off into la-la land that it's really not worth considering.

We can go down if we lose by 12-0 or more to Stoke, Wigan beat Arsenal and Villa and Sunderland don't lose away to Spurs. The chance of this happening is less than St. Mary's being nuked in the next 7 days or the club being liquidated or kicked out of the league for some reason or other. If you're worried about how or why Saints won't be in the Premier League next season, the league table should not be your biggest concern.

Err...you can only have one of Watford and Palace. If they have suddenly made it "4 up, 4 down" then maybe Saints aren't safe after all!

A really excellent return to the top flight. To be safe with a game still to go is a really good achievement. There's room for improvement next year, of course. I think that's a good thing!

a. Any two of Wigan, Sunderland and Aston Villa. b Plus any one of Watford, Brighton and Crystal Palace. I'd rather like Wigan to stay up and wouldn't mind rekindling our rivalry with Brighton. Indifferent between Sunderland and Villa really.

You can get 712/1 on betfair. Don;t think anyone else is quoting odds. It's still a waste of money, just as 100/1 was.

They need to beat Arsenal or it's over for them, really. They'd need a huge goal difference swing v Sunderland on the final day if they only draw.

Isn't anyone still interested in our finishing position THIS season? It's about £800K a place, no? Given we can finish anywhere between 10th and 17th, there's over £5m at stake!

It's been a bit of a pattern for you though, hasn't it? You also strongly tipped us to miss out on promotion from L1 and the NPC. A truly dismal record of predictions over several years, I'm sorry to say.

I think you can rest assured that whatever your own predictions, they will be roundly ignored by any remotely intelligent person. You've been comically wrong over the last three seasons. That "We're going down" thread you started is comedy gold. Pure comedy gold.

Relieved, more than happy. Between minutes 68 and 76 today, I thought I was going to throw up.

How many times does this need to be explained? Wigan could technically finish above us but that would mean Villa finishing behind us (unless we lose 12-0 or worse)

I'd target points, not position. 50 points should be the target IMHO. I'm less bothered about a target position, that depends so much on other teams. 50 points could be 7th or 13th.

Technically, it's 12 goals. If we lose 12-0 and Villa lose to Wigan 5-4, we'd be down* *assuming Wigan have beaten Arsenal and Sunderland don't lose to Spurs.

As I've pointed out on other threads, we are safe for sure as long as we don't lose to Stoke by 12 or more goals.