SaintBobby

So, you think Wigan will win away at Arsenal? That's a necessary condition for 39 points being insufficient. You still think we need 41? (in which case you think Wigan will thrash Arsenal and Villa and we will be thrashed by Stoke and Sunderland)

Given we weren't playing on Tuesday night, would be hard to have celebrated a Sainst victory.

Not sure this counts as bizarre, but it does count as bloody rude. If you want to get to - or leave - your seat for any reason while the game is on, wait for the ball to go dead. I've had people pushing past me as a corner is taken, when the chance of the ball going dead within 5 seconds is pretty high. Stand in the gangway and f***ing wait!

Craig Mackail Smith. Lethal in League One. But probably found his level in Championship. Regret factor: 2/10 Wilfred Zaha The next big thing, pacey winger with tremendous ball control and the ability to actually score. Regret factor: 8/10 Craig Gordon Quality keeper. £9m signing for Sunderland? Not sure if he's even alive anymore. Regret factor: 3/10 James Beattie He's done it before and can do it again. Would be wrong not to have him as a key part of our push in the NPC. Last seen at Accrington Stanley? Regret factor: 0/10

Sure...the gap between 3rd and 4th matters - but nothing like as much as the gap between 4th and 5th matters. Yep, I know English teams have screwed up in the preliminary round before - but it's hardly a disaster to be in it as opposed to the group stages,

Arsenal absolutely have to go for the win v Wigan. A Chelsea win might just have meant that a draw wouldn't be too awful for them. But now, they have to go for 3 points? Anyway, I think that's the reasoning....?

I don't know the ins and outs. But the overall circumstantial evidence seems pretty grim. Maybe Franny was trying it on completely and has accepted 5p. Maybe Nigel Adkins has also been trying it on completely and is also only owed tuppence. Maybe The Sun were totally unreasonable in their demands to have their own photographers take pictures at SMS. Maybe the builders who ceased work at the new academy development were total crooks chancing their arm. Maybe MLT has the emotional maturity of a 6 year old and is just a petulant pr1ck, whatever his previous contribution on the pitch. Maybe Cortese is the most reasonable man on Earth and has just been unlucky to run into a bunch of money-grabbing parasites and tossers. It's possible. But the evidence to the contrary does seem to keep mounting up.

Lol. Not sure about that. But I'm quite keen on making an away win worth 4 points rather than 3.

Actually, I rather like this idea - just glad they didn't apply the rule this season! Maybe also 2 points for being runners-up. And 2 points for winning the League Cup and 1 point for runners-up there. It would certainly liven up the competition a lot.

17th in the Championship, presumably? Having failed to secure 41-43 points this season, we're going down, right?

We're now at 150/1 to be relegated on betfair. Just saying.

You think we'll go down. But you also think it's unlikely that we'll go down. Yep, I see what you're getting at there...

What did you predict? Have you changed your mind? (Or do you still think, perhaps, that we need 41 points "to be safe"?) Here's your chance to alter your prediction and/or explain why you've changed your mind. I'm happy to stick with my view - expressed over many weeks - that 39 points (and our good GD) would always be enough. Actually, I think it quite likely that the team that ends up in 18th place will only have 38 points (or less) and a very poor goal difference. But I'm very interested to hear from those who still think that 40 points or more might be needed. Or that the bookmakers are mad and give no indication of future outcomes. Or those who still think that there is a huge wave of agreement in favour of their theory that 41 points or more will be needed. Or those who still think that Saints will be relegated. Please contribute any smug "I was right" posts below. Or use this opportunity to make a mea culpa. The floor is yours. Happy days.

Yep, we'd need to rely on either (a) getting a point v Stoke or (b) Wigan failing to beat Villa. But an accumulator bet on the 4 results you list would give odds of something like 80/1 - and even then we'll probably survive on the last day of the season (only a Wigan win and Saints defeat would send us down)

1. Oh no 2. Oh phew....

You do realise that we are safe on 39 points unless Wigan beat Arsenal on Tues 14th? i.e. to say Wigan will fail to beat Arsenal is mad. You'll find the odds on that game here: http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/arsenal-v-wigan/winner Look at all those utter loonies putting money on Arsenal to win or on the draw! What utter cretins! All you need to do is remortgage your house (and/or sell a load of possessions and/or take out a loan) and put £100,000 on Wigan to win and by midnight on Tuesday, you're certain to be a millionaire. What could possibly go wrong?

Quoted for truth.

Bless. So cute. You still think we need 41-43?

J-Rod v Liverpool?

I was thrilled when we signed him. But he has been our most disappointing player of the season given the transfer fee and the expectations. I'd get rid of him if we can get our money back or make a slight (15%?) loss. Hope I'm proved wrong and he becomes a superstar in his 2nd season. I also suspect that Cortese will be inclined to stick with him unless we get a tremendous offer.

Agreed. That's my preference too. But, sadly, it does look like being Wigan. As long as it's not Saints, I'm happy...

Agreed. Actually this really should be where we finish now (if we beat Stoke at SMS). The good news is that we're now safe to all intents and purposes. The difference between c.10th and c.16th could be wafer thin though.

You've got me worried now. Oh....

Sounds about right. Hard to see us catching West Ham in 10th (their last game is at home to Reading). And we now can't make 9th.

This. One of the great things about these sort of web thingies is you can see a person's track record. Hindsight is indeed 20-20 vision. But the joy of a forum such as this is that you can measure exactly what someone's foresight was....