SaintBobby

The bookies make this pretty much as close to a toss-up as is mathematically possible. http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/sunderland-v-southampton/winner

The difference for me - although I was mortified by Adkins' sacking - is that I could never see Nigel getting us to much above 14th/15th in the top flight. I think MP might well do better than that. Not necessarily, but very possibly. The untested question is strength in attracting top players. I'm open-minded on this, but think MP may be stronger than Adkins here too.

Because the situation this year is very different to having to beat Man United. Having to get one point from Sunderland or Stoke is a bit easier than having to get 3 from Man Utd. Also, knowing that getting zero points might well be enough also helps. In 04/05, it went down to any 3 from 4 to be relegated, if I remember rightly, on the last day. This time, it's any 1 from 7 (or possibly eight). And 4 of those 7 are definitely going to be below us whatever happens tomorrow. The angst about why we aren't in the top 10? Why are we in a relegation scrap instead? etc etc is largely guff. There's virtually no difference between 10th and a relegation scrap. HTH.

He hasn't got too many players left to kick around. They've been unlucky with injuries and also, maybe, with suspensions - missing Fletcher, Cattermole, Sessegnon and Gardner is like us misisng Lambert, Schneiderlin, Lallana and Cork.

Nope. About 1% IMHO.

If you put money on at 100/1 (I assume you did), you can now lay it off at a big profit anyway.

A win now 100% guarantees safety. A draw is fine though. As long as it's level-pegging, I'm happy to make a "no more goals" prayer.

You want Wigan to beat Swansea????

Looks to me now that 39 points (and a very good GD) is about a 60-40 bet on staying up. 40 points (and a very good GD) is about 99.9%. I'm struggling to find any way at all that Saints need 41 points or more. This will shift a lot depending on the Wigan v Swansea game. If Wigan lose, 39 points is surely safe. If Wigan draw, 39 points is near-as-damnit safe. (in both cases, they'd need to avoid defeat at Arsenal on the 14th to catch us). If Wigan win, you're perhaps looking at 40 or maybe - in some utterly mad scenario - 41 (but even then, there's be a reasonable-ish chance of staying up on 39)

Why are you "totally convinced"? Are you 100% certain that Wigan will get 5 points from 3 games AND Norwich will get 2 points from 2 games AND Newcastle will get 2 points from 2 games. To be "totally convinced" of this strikes me as a bit mad tbh. I'd like to place a bet with you if I may, presumably you'd offer 10,000/1 that 39 isn't enough?

Saints remain about 30/1 to be relegated. Wigan have drifted to slight odds against (about 5/4). Norwich remain about 3/1 and Newcastle about 9/2. Sunderland have come in to about 6/1 (they were evens favourites to beat Stoke, so a draw and losing Gardner isn't great). Villa are generally slightly shorter odds than Saints - about 25/1. Apologies for those who think bookies odds are utterly irrelevant. The Wigan v Swansea match will swing the odds hugely. For all the teams listed above.

I'll try and update as things unfold. The purpose of this thread was to explain how Saints might be safe before the final day though.

If Wigan fail to win, we're basically safe. This is a massive game - for the fans of about 6 or 7 clubs. Sky viewing figures tomorrow may be through the roof.

That Gardner red card is very helpful. Sunderland's attack is decimated and that starts to rip out the heart of their midfield.

Gaston Ramirez. Sadly.

Truth is that the gap between 9th/10th and 18th could be pretty tiny. I don't think there's any contradiction between saying 10th is a realistic target, but that we still aren't clear of relegation.

Plus, any injuries to the Wigan team have an effect. As would any red cards.

D'oh. Thanks, fixed it!

Now added.

UPDATES IN BOLD. SAINTS ARE NOW SAFE UNLESS WE LOSE 12-0 OR WORSE AT HOME TO STOKE Tuesday 7th May Wigan v Swansea (kick off 745pm, Sky Sports 1) RESULT Wigan 2-3 Swansea About half of all Premier League fans will be cheering on Swansea. If Wigan fail to win, they will have to get something out of Arsenal away in order to stand any chance of catching Saints. CONSEQUENCE: This is a massive result. If you were cussing the West Midlands and West Brom on Saturday, now is the time to give all your thanks and gratitude to South Wales. Wigan's defeat means Saints are almost certainly safe. Unless Wigan beat Arsenal away and Villa at home, they can't catch Southampton. Even if Wigan win both these games, Saints have a lot of "outs". The very strong likelihood is now that a team on 38 points (or less) will occupy 18th place - and Saints are already on 39. Mathematically, 41 points are still needed to be 100% safe - but it is now almost inconceivable that Saints will need such a points haul. As per my original post, even if we lose at Sunderland, the Arsenal v Wigan game on Tues 14th will probably confirm our survival. Happy days. Saturday 11th May Aston Villa v Chelsea (kick off 1245pm, Sky Sports 1) RESULT Aston Villa 1 Chelsea 2 Chelsea win desired here, obviously. A Chelsea victory means Saints can settle for securing just one more point and this might even alter our tactics (e.g. if we're drawing with 5 minutes to go, no need to go all out for the winner). CONSEQUENCE: Villa fail to guarantee survival and a point for Saints v Sunderland will effectively secure our Premiership survival (barring a 12-0 defeat against Stoke on the last day of the season) Man City v Wigan (FA Cup Final) (kick off 515pm, ITV1) - NOTE THIS IS NOT A LEAGUE GAME!!!! Man City 0 Wigan 1 Of tangential interest, I guess. A string of Wigan injuries/red cards would be useful. A Man City win is also desirable for reasons of morale. Maybe after 120 minutes to cause maximum exhaustion to Wigan too? UPDATE: A great result for Wigan. Will this give them momentum to get out of the relegation mire? Maybe, but not likely to be at the expense of Saints, thankfully. Sunday 12th May Stoke v Spurs (kick off 130pm Sky Sports 1) RESULT: Stoke 1 - Spurs 2 UPDATED: Results elsewhere mean Stoke were safe. Saints will overtake Stoke if we win the last game of the season. Fulham v Liverpool (kick off 3pm) RESULT Fulham 1 - Liverpool 3 UPDATED: Fulham are now safe unless they lose their last game by at least ten goals. Saints will finish ahead of Fulham if we match or better their result on the last day of the season. Norwich v West Brom (kick off 3pm) RESULT Norwich 4 - WBA 0 UPDATE: Norwich are safe and go one point ahead of Saints. Saints will need to better Norwich's result on the last day of the season (they are away to Man City) to go back ahead of them. QPR v Newcastle (kick off 3pm) RESULT QPR 1 - Newcastle 2 UPDATE: Newcastle are safe and go one point ahead of Saints. Saints will need to better Newcastle's result on the last day of the season (they are home to Arsenal) to go back ahead of them. Sunderland v Saints (kick off 3pm) RESULT Sunderland 1 Saints 1 UPDATE: Saints are now safe barring a 12-0 defeat or worse on the last day of the season. We will definitely stay ahead of Sunderland if we at least match their result on the day (they are away at Spurs) Tuesday 14th May Arsenal v Wigan (kick off 745pm, Sky Sports 1) UPDATE: Wigan now really need to win their last two games to stay up. If Wigan fail to beat Arsenal, the relegation places are decided before the final day. Sunday 19th May (all kick offs 4pm)

Never make any assumptions in football, as Dalek rightly says. The only assumption it is reasonable to make is that all of Wigan, Newcastle and Norwich will end up on more than 39 points. All other assumptions are mad.

I'm obsessed. Genuinely struggled to sleep last night. Feel so much more nervous than previous relegation scraps.

Well, not really. If we lost 8-0 and Wigan won 7-0, that would damage Villa's GD almost as much as our own and we'd stay up.

This. If we go into the Stoke game level on points with one of Villa and Wigan and a point ahead of the other, we are safe. (assuming we avoid a 13-0 defeat against Stoke or something mental)

Is there any reason you're assuming Wigan will get at least 5 more points and Newcastle and Norwich will both get at least two more points, then?