SaintBobby

Really? If Norwich or Newcastle get zero or one points from their last 2 games, then 39 would still be enough. Also, even if Wigan do beat Swansea (which I'd say is about 50-50), they'd still need to get two points off Arsenal and Villa. So, there really are quite a few ways in which 39 is enough.

So, to be clear, you think that if Saints were to finish on 40 points, we'd be relegated?

Wonder if a draw might suit both teams. Depends if Sunderland get something from the Stoke game. If not, they have to go all out for the win.

Do you still think Saints need 41-43 points to avoid relegation?

Well, obviously. Everyone on here hopes we end up on 45 points. But were we to lose the last two games, it's still very likely we'll stay up. I'd say it's about 90% likely that 39 points will be enough, but also about 80% likely that we'll end up with more than 39. At least one of Norwich, Newcastle, Wigan and Sunderland is likely to end up on 39 points or less.

You're already wrong that between 41 and 43 will be needed for safety. It remains very likely that 39 points and a good GD will be enough. Not certain, but very likely. Of course, the likelihood is that Saints will get something from the last two games anyway.

We'll obviously be safe before kick off on May 19th if we win against Sunderland next week- and probably if we draw. Alternatively, if Wigan get a point or less in their games against Swansea and Arsenal, we're safe before the last game too.

Today's results could hardly have been worse. The chances of relegation are tiny - but I'm looking downwards not upwards at the moment. Stoke win and lots of red cards please.

The way it looks to me is that, even if we lose both games, Newcastle and Norwich need to get two points. One of them at least will probably fail to. Wigan need 5 points from 3 games - that's a tough ask. Additionally, I expect us to take between 2 and 4 points from the last two games. I'm still hoping we will be safe before kick off on the last day and think we will be.

Been a disappointing set of results recently. But 39 points is almost certainly enough to stay up still.

Nearly impossible to believe 41 points will be needed. Certainly not 42 or 43...

You actually said 41-43 wld be needed. It won't be.

We're fine. A point today would have sealed it though. Pity.

Damn....

Bloody Wigan....3-2 up

Wigan equalise. Sigh.

About where we are now...Mid-table, but probably just below halfway. I''l say 11th.

Yeah? A gimme? What odds will you give me that Newcastle DON'T win? 12/1? I'll have a grand on that then please.

You're back? Oh, bless.

We're going to end up somewhere between 9th and 18th. There isn't going to be much difference between those positions, to be honest (maybe 10 points or so, in total?) Best guess is that we finish somewhere in the middle of that spread (12th or 14th-ish).

My own guess on our finish is that we'll get either 2 or 3 more points. Maybe only 1. But that will easily be enough.

I'm happy to bet you any sum of money you care to name that Wigan will get LESS than 9 points from their 4 games. Literally, any sum you care to name. £10? £100? £1,000,000? I'll even throw in 8 points as a tie - with no payout from either of us. (P.S. Do you still think we might need 43 points to stay up?)

We're still safe. Wigan will probably go down on about 35 - 36 points. If we lose every remaining match 45-0, we are still almost certain to stay up.

I've just stuck an extra £100 on my wife's life insurance policy. I obviously hope she isn't mowed down by a bus tomorrow morning, as I love and adore her to bits. But if she is actually smashed into a ghastly mush of guts and blood on the tarmac tomorrow, at least this will soften the blow.

If the over-riding, all-encompassing objective is to increase our chances of staying-up from 99.9% to 99.999% and we don't much care where we finally finish in the division as long as it's above 18th, then yes, we want Sunderland to beat Villa.