SaintBobby

Spurs away. We were fantastically unlucky not to have taken any points from either of the Man Utd games, but to end the season having taken points from all of the other top 7 would be pleasing.

If that's right - and it maybe - we are safe already. (making certain, very reasonable assumptions about goal difference)

Slightly off topic, but broadly on the same theme, I was trying to work out how it WON'T go the last game of the season. Because Wigan and Villa play each other on the final day, if we go into the 38th game level with one of those teams and a single point ahead of the other, we are mathematically safe (assuming there isn't some utterly mental change to goal difference).

I'm not expecting a huge leap forward next season - probably aspiring to mid-table and never in serious danger of relegation is a good target (as with Swansea, Fulham or West Brom this year). I can't see any chance of breaking into the top 6 without truly enormous investment. Also, the difference in places around the mid-table is so small that targeting a league position rather than a points total seems a bit strange. A points total of 50 might be a good target, but this might leave you finishing anywhere from, say, 8th - 14th.

It's a pretty mental league table at the moment. Arguably there are only three teams with nothing to play for as we enter April - West Brom, Swansea and, bizarrely, Man Utd. Maybe Man city as well - who seem near certain of top 4, but have no chance of winning the title. I still don't think it will require as many as 40 points to stay up. If you treat QPR and Reading as doomed, surely there's a good chance that at least one of the other teams towards the bottom will go on a pretty horrible run - something like W 1 D 2 L 4, which would mean somewhere between 35 and 39 points will be enough to just stay up.

Bookies odds are shifting a lot tonight, but most are shifting us out towards 20/1 to be relegated.

7 defeats on the spin from here? Wow, that is pessimistic!

I think MP's record is now W 3 D 3 L 3 ? If so, that's better than Adkins. But also, hasn't MP had a tough nine games? (playing 5 of the top 7 teams, or something?)

He was on the money. What part of what he said did you (or others) disagree with?

A draw would be a very good result. We're measurable underdogs, surely? After this match, only Spurs away looks really tricky. We should easily avoid relegation really. \We probably only need another 4 or 5 points and we will probably get 10-12.

Rickie Lambert isn't very, very lucky. He's very, very talented!

Back on topic, we are now 6th favourites for the drop - even after Wigan's win. We're at 6/1 - 7/1 with most bookies. The relegation odds on the betfair exchange (as decimals, showing how much you'd walk away with if you placed £1 on a team being relegated) are as follows: Reading £1.09 QPR £1.21 Wigan £2.08 Villa £2.86 Sunderland £4.80 Saints £8.03 West Ham £16.70 Norwich £17.60 Newcastle £20.00 Stoke £27.00 others are at 100/1 or longer

Seems to me to be a sensible approach if the money is used to buy players, which costs a lot up front but the benefits of which are spread over several years. Surely, the Saints squad is now fairly "complete" if we do stay up - we may sign another defender, maybe another winger/attacker, but we aren't going to spend as much as we have this year, are we? So, if you're going to assume Rodriguez, Ramirez, Clyne etc require one off capital outlays, why not borrow? The important thing, of course, is to have a plan B if relegated - can you sell sufficient players at sufficient prices to pay back the loan? It seems to me that we can. Quite comfortably.

I have us going into the last game on 40 points, 6 points clear of the drop zone - with Reading cut adrift at the bottom on just 24 points and a last day scramble between: 15 Newcastle 36 pts -16 GD 16 Aston Villa 37 pts -30 GD 17 Sunderland 34 pts -16 GD 18 QPR 34 pts - 23GD 19 Wigan 34 pts - 27 GD

We're probably staying up now. Probably need another 4-6 points. Would be astonishing if we didn't manage that. Are my feet on the ground?

He has been great this season, but I did wonder whether we might splash the cash on a top signing to replace him. Maybe the squad is now pretty "settled" and there won't be a lot of transfer activity in the summer.

We're doomed. Truly doomed. Fail to thrash QPR on Saturday and we're as good as down....

From radio commentary doesn't sound we've played too badly.

Danny bloody Fox

I think the funniest thing here is amongst the related stories - "Portsmouth saga nears end...." from October, yes October, last year.

True, but if they are, say, 12 points adrift with 6 games to go, they are as close to certain to get relegated as makes no difference. To apply the 10 point penalty at that point would simply shift the odds of relegation from 99.9% to 100%. Which doesn't amount to much of a punishment tbh.

Surely, it would be a farce to apply any points penalty this season. They are going to be relegated anyway.

The football on this afternoon is so dull, I might even tune into the Skates match.

Likely to have a chilling effect on Hall. The libel laws in this country are a joke. Pricey lawyers can push anyone around.

Obviously Saints related. We was robbed. Again.