Jimmy_D

Seems to be accurate, at least to what's being claimed. Ukraine have claimed about 100,000 casualties in total since that statement by von der Leyen. Someone's put a translation of the relevent section in the comments here;

As the EU has since clarified, the 100,000 refers to external estimates of the total killed and wounded military casualties for Ukraine. Historically the ratio of that has been about 1:3 which would put Ukraine KIA at around 25,000 from those estimates. They have, however, been recieving NATO training and gear, including medical, which in recent years has done significantly better than 1:3 in terms of keeping the wounded alive. The 88,000 figure is Ukraine's estimate of Russian military casualties that have been killed, and doesn't include wounded or POWs. From the reports seen from troops on the Russian side about the lack of medical equipment and how the wounded are treated (or left behind), it seems likely they're doing significantly worse than that 1:3 ratio. Considering the disparity in terms of equipment, logistics, and training, especially recently in the conflict, as well as the direction of movement of the front lines and Ukraine's continued military capability, as well as the differences in military doctrine between Ukraine and Russia, there's no reason to think that Ukraine have 100,000 soldiers KIA.

For the low price of 85,000 troops, implementing a de facto state of total war, Russia now holds less territory than it did 7 months ago, including losing the only regional capital it had taken, and is able to cause temporary disruption when attempting to commit genocide via widespread terrorist attacks. What exactly does it look like if things are going badly for Russia, in your mind?

I’d imagine an investigation will take place, but from what I’ve seen of discussions between people with far more knowledge of the legal side than me, it’s perfidy. Fake surrender is yet another war crime to add to the list. It’s also an example of how well trained Ukraine are that they could deal with this eventuality, which is important, because it means Ukraine can continue to offer surrender as an option despite the risk.

Appears likely it was Ukrainian air defence that resulted in the hit in Poland, although no final conclusion made yet. It’s still due to the Russian’s illegal attacks that it even had the chance of happening, of course, and there’s no way Ukraine could have just ignored an incoming missile because it was close to the border, but it’ll be a different response to if it’d been directly from Russia, accidental or otherwise. Ukraine are getting better at defending all the time, between experience and cutting edge tech. NASAMS reportedly has a 100% success rate for interceptions so far, with the first two systems being used in Ukraine, and new systems due to be delivered as soon as they’re produced. EW systems have reportedly allowed Ukraine to start actually capturing Iranian drones. It’s incredibly tough for Ukraine, but it appears that they can repair their infrastructure faster than Russia have the ability to damage it now, with unsustainable numbers of missiles required to do anything at all.

Article 5 just means there has to be a joint NATO response if it's called for. Increased air defence along NATO's border could be one result of that. Point is, Russia just now, from a treaty point of view, landed missiles on the territory of every NATO member.

Considering it seems at least one Russian missile just came down on Polish territory, that seems unlikely. It's possible that Poland will invoke Article 5.

Might have actually got something out of that on another day. We just need one game where a few of the chances we're creating go in.

Still one hell of a clearing operation to perform, but the Ukrainian flag has been raised and Kherson has been liberated. Historic day, but also one to remember those who gave everything to make this possible.

One Russian state tv host threaded the needle on that.

That'll do! Just! Sounds like it was a high quality penalty shoot-out at least...

Kherson is the biggest gain Russia have made during this war, they wouldn't be giving it up unless they absolutely had to. There are a few things that have factored into it. Firstly is Urkraine's tactical success in drawing a massive portion of Russia's more competent troops into Kherson, then severely restricting their resupply routes. There was also the meeting with China, after which Russia's rhetoric about using nuclear weapons was massively rolled back. Seems it was made clear that, if it did all kick off, China's nukes wouldn't be on Russia's side. Between Russia's conventional forces being too weak now to prevail, and Russia's nuclear bluff called, there's less and less prospect of any benefit from throwing forces away to delay Kherson being retaken. Aside from that, there was the drone attack that crippled the Black Sea fleet, and has made it too dangerous for it to operate. This not only stopped any seabourne long range missile support, but also pushed Russia into their massive terror campaign where they used a large portion of their remaining land based precision missiles causing terrible pain on civilian targets. It was a long shot was hoping to force some political advantage that hasn't worked, and that didn't actually help them militarily. Also, the public perception of the war has massively changed in Russia since the 'partial' mobilisation. It's getting through, even on state tv, that it has NOT been going well for Russia, and that, for all the sacrifice that they've been making, they're not getting any benefit for it. Putin has a terrible amount of control over the populace in Russia, but it's not infinite, especially now that, in effect, civilians are ending up on the front lines for Russia. Russia retreating doesn't mean that the fight for Kherson is over of course, but Ukraine won't be relying on anything Russia say to guide their actions. They'll be doing it by the book and making sure any actions are based on properly sourced intelligence information.

It's been coming for a while, but Russian forces now officially ordered to retreat from Kherson. On top of that, any candidates sympathetic to Russia (or Trump) in the US midterm elections have generally been taking a bit of a pasting.

Excellent day for Sholing down in the lower leagues, 4-0 against 2nd in the league Exmouth and now six points clear at the top with a goal difference miles better than anyone else. Look the team to beat this season.

Good job the sanctions aren't having any effect or I guess they'd be in real trouble...

Unconfirmed reports that the frigates Admiral Makarov and Admiral Essen were hit, as well as a minesweeper, and a landing craft. Also seems that a submarine pen in Sevastapol was hit. There’s convincing video that the Admiral Makarov was hit and on fire for a few hours at least, starting around 4:20 this morning and extending into daylight hours. There’s also more recent speculation it’s actually sunk. Even if it hasn’t, if it’s confirmed it was on fire that long, it’ll be out of action for the foreseeable future. Either way, seems that, in a fight against an adversary with no navy, Russia has lost its flagship. Twice.

Game of two halves, didn’t take advantage of ‘our’ half. Annoying. On to the next.

It’s a good sign, especially in terms of getting through this winter, but it also indicates that more storage capacity is needed.

Ukraine now apparently advancing on all fronts. Towards Svatove/Kremina in the North West Ukraine are approaching the outskirts of the city. What’s left of Wagner seems to have broken itself against Bakmuht and is finally being pushed back. There’s still an information blackout about Kherson but Russia certainly aren’t claiming any victories. Meanwhile the shift to blaming Satanism instead of Nazis is amusing, but seems to be part of a broader info strategy of abandoning old lies that don’t have any traction any more in favour of new ones as the old ones break against the reality of Russia’s performance in the war. While the tone of State TV has been changing over the course of the war, there seems to have been another noticeable recent shift. The Moskva sinking actually being attributed to Ukraine is an interesting one. Being that scathing about the state of Russia’s forces too. The state of Russia’s nuclear capability being openly questioned on state tv is surprising to say the least. One common thread that’s still there, and always have been, is that these failures are attributed to people who aren’t Putin of course. Seems to me they’re preparing the ground to shape it as a ‘victory’ when they heroically manage to stop all of NATO and Satanism at Russia’s border with Ukraine.

That was a great game to watch! Either team could have won but a draw felt fair in the end, great point for us to pick up, and St Mary’s remains a bogey ground for Arsenal. Our equaliser was a beautiful beautiful goal! Looking forward to seeing replays of that.

And now conceded two quick goals to be 2-1 down Still top of the league though.