goodymatt

If you’d said a couple of years ago we might be signing AMN on a free for a championship promotion push, it would have been seen as quite the coup. He has been very disappointing and I can’t see him being the solution for us going forward. If his attitude/motivation appears below the required levels playing for us in the PL, I dread to think how he’d look playing in the championship. Such an odd player, clearly has talent.

His form with us has been atrocious. It’s a big gamble to expect he will replicate his Blackburn form and be our main goal source. I wonder what style Blackburn played when he did so well, does anyone know? The trouble is we are going to lose a lot of players and when rebuilding a team, it might be useful to keep him around for the season given his championship experience. However in an ideal world I think moving on would suit both parties. You just know if we sold him to Ipswich he’d score against us!

Agreed it’s a Southampton-esque stat isn’t it. Certainly an area for improvement! Should we lose Adams, Piroe would be a very decent signing at this level. 40 goals in last 2 seasons. I did read that like Adams, he does score less than he is expected to. So perhaps not as clinical as Gyokores for example.

2nd least shots on their goal from open play and only 4 teams expected to concede less. However, they conceded the 4th most overall. I’d agree that they are conceding way more than they should be which could be down to a poor shot stopping keeper. We will have to hope Bazunu doesn’t carry his form (worst save percentage in Europe’s top 5 leagues) into the Championship! The podcast I linked a few pages ago talking about Martin being underfunded evaluated their squad and it sounded like number one was dropped, number 2 no better. Crying out for a better keeper.

I have said earlier in this thread my preference would have been a bigger name manager with experience in the top flight and success in the championship like Rodgers and Potter. Sadly they seem out of reach, we reportedly could have had a chance of employing Potter if we had survived. I’m not sure if looking through stats for some encouragement on our potential new manager makes me an ‘apologist’ but you’re entitled to that opinion. What I will say is that it’s pretty hard to argue that Martin didn’t limit opponents to few chances when only one team in the entire league had less shots on their goal from open play and only 4 teams were expected to concede less from open play, taking into account the quality of chances. Perhaps I’m thinking glass half full here but that sounds encouraging to me that his style isn’t giving opponents loads of big chances. I know it’s in a bigger league, but I recall we all berated Howe for his 60+ goals conceded during his time at Bournemouth. Interesting that with better tools at his disposal he’s got the second best defensive record now in the PL.

Swansea aren’t bad at ‘goals football’, 4th most goals in the league last season. Interestingly Luton (11) and Coventry (10) scored less goals than Swansea but are one game away from promotion. Martin’s tactics make a lot of chances and limit the opponents to few chances. This makes me cautiously optimistic he will end up with a much better goal difference with a better squad than Swansea, which we really should have once the revolving doors stop spinning this summer. His should have better tools at his disposal to be successful. The Athletic report this morning that Enzo Maresca was first offered the job. I think that’s a very strong indication that Jason Wilcox is well involved in the new manager selection. Martin’s possession based approach seems to be his preference, I don’t think this is an Ankerson individual choice like Mad Nate.

https://www.fansnetwork.co.uk/football/swanseacity/news/60253/russell-martin-the-multi-million-pound-swansea-city-game-the-majority-ownership-have-won

Impressive, maybe we don’t need to spend big! I think with the teams coming down with us it’s going to be a tough challenge to win the league. Won’t see Everton/Leeds/Leicester finishing mid table like Norwich and Watford. We will also sell more players than Burnley did.

Lavia is wanted by some big teams, I think his fee will be what we expect. Perhaps Prowsey will go for less than we want as he’s worth more to us than he’s really worth on the market. I do think we will easily sell £150m worth of players this window. The next question is how much will SR invest.

We will be circa £100m worse off for not being in the PL next season due to parachute payments and commercial drop off. I reckon Lavia and JWP make up that hole, even then we would have a fair budget given the other expected sales and the owners reportedly willing to finance a quick return. I cannot see a situation where we only spend £25m rebuilding almost an entire first 11. We need to be a PL club for the multi club strategy to work for SR, surely? I do see where you’re coming from with the investment value angle but SR’s plan clearly wasn’t to spend £100m net on Saints and just own a championship football club.

This means only 4 teams were expected to concede fewer goals in the league, 1st place would be worst.

Much has been made over the goals conceded stats for Swansea playing Martin’s possession based style. I’ve just had a look on Opta Analyst and the stats show the following for open play goals for and against, which I think is most relevant to style: Shots for - 4th Expected goals for - 5th Goals actual - 4th Shots against - 23rd Expected goals against - 20th Goals against actual - 11th The fact Swansea finished on a GD of just +4 looks down to the quality of players, their goalkeeper let in 14 goals more that expected over the full season for example. Limiting your opponents to the fewest shots after the runaway champions doesn’t look like a passive style that gives loads of chances away. I know footy isn’t played on a spreadsheet, even if Rasmus thinks it is. However, the underlying stats do suggest that Swansea create a lot of chances and give away few chances. My hope is with a bigger budget and better quality players, Saints would see a much higher league finish and an improved defensive record compared to Martin’s 2 seasons at Swansea.

It did make Piroe sound a little bit like Che Adams!

An interesting thread below this post, mixed views from other teams supporters. Sheffield United fans in particular seem to not rate him. Btw, of course football is about results, especially for Saints trying to get back at the first attempt!

I’ve come across this podcast on YouTube that talks about his underlying numbers and how underfunded he was for this seasons promotion push. Video is after the January window closed but still gives interesting insight. General opinion seems positive on the job Martin was doing. It’s good to know that the possession approach at that point had the 2nd most shots taken and 4th least shots against. Doesn’t sound like possession for possessions sake to me. You’d hope with better players we would be able to perform closer to expected goals and points. Although Saints have similarly underperformed underlying data for a while now. Interestingly their keeper had conceded 10 goals more than you’d expect at the half way point… Banzunu vibes?

Not sure if this is any progression on yesterday’s news or a rehash.

I do have that feeling in my stomach that this is another unnecessary risk as @S-Clarke has alluded to above. My hope was we would get in a manager that had a record of doing well in the PL but maybe lost their way a bit like Potter (admittedly never likely to drop down) or Rodgers (despite him being unlikable). Silva was a master stroke for Fulham. However, unlike with Jones, we don’t have a car crash example at an ex PL club (Stoke) to really add weight to the concern. Swansea have a very decent record lately with Potter and Cooper, clearly have a good eye for up and comers. I do like the idea that we will have a style/identity again and one that should work well with the long slog that is the championship. This is a guy who was underfunded and still nearly made the playoffs. Let’s hope the budget we will have can get the quality to make his ideas more fruitful. I do like how early we seem to be doing this, should help with the transfer window and alignment. I’m less immediately against this than I was with Jones in November, where we had a lot of the PL to go to save ourselves. I think there is more chance of success with this appointment but with all the change going on I would have personally preferred to go for that PL experienced manager, if possible. Really hope this works!

Last season Vieira inherited a team with loads of ending contracts and players leaving the club. He oversaw a complete rebuild of that team and I thought Palace had a great season. We have a huge rebuild coming up this summer. This season he had his best player injured towards the end of his tenure and was managing the hardest fixture run. It’s easy to focus on no wins in 12 or 3 games with no shots on target, that is worrying in isolation. Hodgson comes in for the easiest run of fixtures and looks a genius. Pretty sure Koeman went 11 without a win or something similar in the season we finished 6th. Factoring in this will be a championship job, I don’t see anyone ‘higher profile’ that is realistically achievable. I wonder if Vieira one of Lavia’s heroes? 😉 I’m sure he’s leaving regardless!

Couldn’t agree more.

It’s frustrating that we could have had Eddie Howe or De Scerbi but got the timing of sacking Ralph so wrong. I stand by my earlier comment that is is possible to attract a PL quality manager at championship level. Fulham did it with Marco Silva. Newcastle kept Benitez at this level and Burnley kept Dyche the last time around. All 3 got their teams promoted at the first attempt. My opinion is that we need an experienced manager considering the significant amount of change we are about to undergo on both playing and organisational structure levels. The best option is one that had been successful at PL level but then recently had a failure (just as Marco Silva had). The only recent options I can think of that meet that criteria are: Brendan Rodgers - did so well for so long at Leicester. Close to title with Liverpool. Great football at Swansea too. For me this is actually the most logical appointment, despite his derisory comments about us being ‘on course to be a CL club’ and is having a ‘choice’ leading to us all pantomime hating on him. Rafa Benitez - this guy has all the experience in the world, including getting Newcastle promoted. Everton have been a shower and I would afford him a free pass on that. Patrick Vieira - not as successful as the others, sacked at last 2 clubs. However he did pretty well at rebuilding that palace team with young players and last season I thought they were a great watch. Even if that was down to palace recruiters he made it work until that tough run of fixtures when he was harshly sacked. All 3 of these would command more respect and give me more confidence than the ‘up and coming’ options muted. Like others, I see Potters failure at Chelsea being too big a drop to managing us in the championship next, especially with his financial situation post sacking.

Fulham managed to attract Marco Silva whilst in the championship. It is possible with the expected budget we will have that we can attract a manager that’s been good at PL level previously. I actually think our ‘strategy’ to look for up and coming managers will be the reason we don’t, rather than it being impossible.