Saint86

🤦‍♂️ Because yes, if we replayed the chances, then every single time haaland jumps for that header he will miss the goal. And every time Alvarez hits that cross he'll slice it wide

Several examples have been set out above. Put simply, xG adds a nuanced way to interpret team and player performances, such as looking at the effectiveness of a team's attacking play, a player's finishing, or the effectiveness of a tactic / defence at nullifying the attack of an opposition team. For example, we had minimal possession in the city game, but defended well and limited city's entire attack to less expected goals than haaland's average xG for a game this season 👍. That's a significant reduction. We were then able to use the circa 25-30% possession we had efficiently to generate some decent chances and had mara (who statistically is a decent finisher) to take advantage of it. It was a good performance where tactically we were very solid and maintained a threat, but the stats show that city still had the chances and should really have scored - e.g. on another night city start haaland, and the Alvarez chance is a goal (as an example), or haaland hasn't just come on to somehow completely miss his header in front of goal. If you'd rather count all shots / shooting chances as equal then ofc fee free 😢, but there is definetly value in the newer statistical analysis methods. Similarly we should be targeting attacker's that have a high xG conversion rate.

Post of 2023 contender 🤣

I mean, there are games when its pretty damn close. But funnily enough, the exact same thing can be said for total shots, but it won't mean much if all those shots are from 35yards and easily saved... 🧐 You work with stats, yet you think that city's xG of 1.0 over 90min means they should have scored 2 goals? and that our xG of 0.5 means we should have scored 1? 🧐 okay... 😅 You guys that don't like the data analysis or understand it do realise that that is okay right? No one is forcing you to? Whereas I personally found it interesting that City's xG of 1.0 for the match was lower than Haaland's individual average xG per 90minutes for the season, let alone the rest of the city side. Clearly our defence and tactical setup was very effective.

JWP penalty vs Brighton was given a 0.76xG (as stated by gecko above). Alvarez 6yard dead centre tap in was 0.5xG. circa 0.15 for Mara's rather difficult half volley seems reasonable to me. It does add a useful statistical analysis to football - particular for overall team/tactical effectiveness, and for analysing player performance Overall it highlights what good finishes our two goals were. Mara in particular was super movement and a cracking finish. Djenpo as well is a very good finish/awareness. What the xG stats do show is that we did a good job in keeping City's expected goals well below normal, but that equally we had the quality on the day to finish whilst they were off form and didn't take the chances they made. Versus Brighton the opposite was true re finishing quality - But even though we were outplayed by Brighton, the score did flatter them.

Telling someone how many sitters we missed is a simplistic way of telling them our xG and goals scored 🤔.

I mean, this is the point. It's an average expectation of a striker scoring a chance. What it's saying is that on average a player can be expected to score that chance 50% of the time... With haaland, the stats shows he converts at a rate of 1.3 goals per xG (ditto ings) So they'd be expected to score that chance 65% of the time on average 🙃. The fact that it counts so heavily on xG is a far better demonstration of the threat city carried than simply saying they had 1 shot off target 🤷‍♂️. You dont have to use any stats, but it you ever look at (or quote) stats such as total shots, shots on target, possession, corners, clear cut chances etc. Then you should consider xG and others. That Alvarez chance was counted as city's clear cut chance by sky etc, saints didn't have one listed because none of our chances were clear cut - instead we had very clinical finishing - something that will now be recorded against mara and djenpo overall stats. People are welcome to ignore these more detailed stats if they want to. But it's dumb to consider the basic ones and ignore the more detailed and nuanced ones - They clearly give a more detailed view of player and team performances over the course of a game or over a season etc.

Agree entirely.

Yeah i don't the issue myself, but to each their own. The people that don't rate it must just not use any stats for games? Not even the simpler ones like possession percentage, shots on target etc.

Alvarez chance on circa 78/79 min, assisted by ilkay gundogan. Commentator was stating haaland scores it easily due to greater size / leg length. Alvarez got on the cross but sliced it onto salisu. Pretty much dead centre 6 yards out, bazunu got down low to smother the deflection. Notably the chart increased by 0.5xG at this exact time, which i think is reasonable as 50% of the time you'd expect the striker to score a dead centre tap in from 6yards... not including che who would absolutely do his best to pass to the keeper. The marginal increases (particulary for Djenpo's chance) reflect how clinical we were. Not many shots go in from that kind of distance lets be honest. A case of xG again showcasing its value in complimenting fan perceptions of a game?

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Good dribbler, poor finisher.

More than anything, i would like him to stop saying, "with all due respect", or "with the greatest respect" several times per interview / press conference. Its incredibly defensive and comes across like he has a complex / chip on his shoulder about his own ability.

I didn't see a comment from Nathan Jones referencing an improvement in his cup win rate 🧐.

Not sure that sit will sit well with the popular narrative on here that JWP is not a leader? 😅

One of his cup wins was a terrible performance vs 3rd tier Lincoln, and his win rate in the premier league is 0% - It mathematically cannot get worse.

Yeah agreed. What he said was fair enough and well pitched. If people were giving it out (and a lot of it was far worse than what jones said), and then take umrbridge at what was a fairly mild bit of non personal backchat from the manager), they need to grow up frankly. 🤷‍♂️ Hopefully it grows into a decent relationship between the fans and the manager - but that will need success and time... neither of which we have much off atm.

If only there was an averaged set of stats for how many goals a player should score, and how many goals they do score. Something that takes out specific fan biases and just compares them to their peers. Maybe something like xG and an xG conversion rate? 😋 Nonsense to a lot of fans on here i know!?! 🙈 But, if you do look at Che's xG vs goal scored, he's 19th in the league for xG per 90min (0.36), with 5.4 total xG for the season, and he has only scored 4 against that. An xG conversion rate of 0.74. He does also have an expected assists (xA) stat of 2 for the season... (high i know) and only 1 assist against that. But it seems unfair to hold him accountable for the finishing of others... Just for comparison, Danny Ings has 4.47xG for the season and has scored 6 for a xG conversion rate of 1.3 - significantly better than Che's. His xG per 90 is 0.54 (down to villa/saints more than ings/che i would suggest). Some others for comparison's sake: Calvert Lewin has 0.3xG per 90, 1.68xG for the season, 1 goal scored, and an xG conversion rate of 0.59. Scamacca has 0.24xG per 90, 2.48xG for the season, 3 goals scored, and an xG conversion rate of 1.2 Haaland has 1.07xG per 90 (🤣), 15.81xG for the season, 21 goals scored, and an xG conversion rate of 1.32. Kane has 0.67xG per 90, 11.98xG for the season, 15 goals scored, and an xG conversion rate of 1.25 Awoniyi has 0.61 xG per 90, 4.96xG for the season, 4 goals scored, and an xG conversion rate of 0.8 So in summary, of the strikers i've just randomly picked out, the only one with worse finishing stats for this season is DCL. Although, i am just presenting the data and I acknowledge that he offers more than just his finishing. As usual, Ings stands out as far and away one of the best finishers in the league. So i guess what we can take from all of that, is that if Che was in City's team and had the same movement and chemistry as haaland, we would expect him to have scored circa 11-12goals, rather than Haaland's 21 😭😅 For the hell of it Adam Armstrong: AA has 0.12 xG per 90, 1.23xG for the season, 1 goal scored, and an xG conversion rate of 0.81, but clearly down to a small sample size on the chances front. Edit, somehow forgot to include Openda 🙈 - although his stats should be caveated by considering Ligue 1 is a weaker league. Openda has 0.65xG per 90, 8.31xG for the season, 9 goals scored, and an xG conversion rate of 1.08. Young, hungry, and guaranteed to improve, hates pompey allegedly, and was available for less than £10m smackeroos in the summer 😋 Also, Ligue 1 data for Mara (26 games): Mara had 0.51 xG per 90, 5.03xG for the season, 6 goal scored, and an xG conversion rate of 1.19 - Which is somewhat promising. https://understat.com/player/7700

Tactical change? Do you mean having lavia (and actual central midfield anchor) fit? 😅 It's been our issue all season with both Jones and Ralph. Our midfield is appalling when we're having tk rely on the likes of AMN or Diallo as pivotal defensive midfielders.

I get its personal oppinion, and it's always interesting how fans see the game so differently to each other 😊. But in that vein I would also say Tino is not as good a defender as kwp (currently - Tino is young) 😅. I always remember him being caught out of position, or needing to be better defensively vs wingers / wide forwards last year. I am not knocking Tino by any means, but he'll develop with play time and experience - I would always have put kwp above him if picking purely for quality though. Also the sad reality is that we don't know what level Tino will be in when he comes back.

Those expecting a main striker to come in and Immediatley perform with a goal every 2 games are talking about a player coming in an having a minutes per goal ratio of circa 140-150. There aren't many regular startering strikers in the league that have achieved that so far this season. Haaland, kane, mitrovic, toney, and rodrigo are the main ones. Wilson is there (6 goals in 13 at 148minutes per goal, but always has injury issues), and firminio is similar but is used often as an impact player. Ditto ings, 6 goals in 17 games, but ofc... Shock horror from the lethal xg chance conversion machine, he had a goal every 127minutes despite playing in a largely appalling villa side for most of the season. Almiron has a goal every 167minutes in the prem (but is a midfielder). Ditto Foden and maddison are similar. So in terms of attacker's, there is realistically only 5-6 regular players that are achieving it, prem sides are unlikely to sell us one, and any player that is that good won't be cheap and is a gamble - I.e. Nunez and scammaca.

Would struggle to disagree more. He is superb at holding the ball up rather than losing it, he'll look for quick 1-2s, and run off the shoulder of players, and his dribbling skills make him a great threat when he gets into the box in tight spaces. He also makes great runs carrying the ball to move us up the pitch and to make space for others, which allows players like jwp to drift in behind or overlap to support attacks and put crosses in etc. He's the best attacking full back / wing back I can recall at saints. And he ain't bad defensively either. I'll be stunned if we get a better player than him as a replacement, and it we'll lose the balance he brings us (good defence / attack) down that side. When he finally goes it will be a loss, but for the sake of his career (and England chances - and he should already be in that mix when fit) he probably should be looking to move up to the right big club now - unless saints can really pick up and return to our top 8 finishes... Doubtful right now let's be honest.

Quite a lot of praise for Ward Prowse in his joining interview. That's another young player we've signed that's looking forward to playing with him - Interesting to say the least.

Feel a tiny bit sorry for him... they were clearly going to use his signing announcement to distract from a man city loss, and instead he's been partially lost in the bemused happiness over that city win! 😅🤣 Either way, looks like he could be class, and i hope he is for many years to come (for us). A midfield unit of Lavia, JWP, and Alcaraz does sound tasty to me!

Repeat of 2017 final with a different outcome? Beat Newcastle and re-sign gabbi for a bit of vengeance?