Saint86

I thought i'd post this now (in my hubirs before watford crush any slither of a chance)... I wanted to see just what the chances were of a Saints automatic promotion. The answer, i think, is bloody unlikely.... 😄 May be of interest - https://www.worldfootball.net/table_calculator/eng-championship/ So, the following begins with one very large premise / "if" statement... and then continues down that path.... That Premise, or "if" statement, is that Martin is about to morph into the 2nd coming of Guardiola and we somehow manage to win every game.... Then we'd get to 96 points!!! Woop woop!! promotion is on the cards right?!?! Sadly probably not.., although i think almost certainly secure 3rd regardless, which does perhaps give us benefits in the playoff draw? But anyway, in that perfect run in scenario, our rivals for automatics would likely only be Leeds and Leicester. I'm dismissing Ipswich right now for a few reasons (i think they're shitter than the table suggests, am bitter that they got 2 wins against us, and think they'll drop points... there i said it...) But fair play if they can get through some fairly tough fixtures to keep pace with the other 2 as well... Will make the playoff final even sweeter when we send them packing! So then, for what i assume will be the top 2 - how many points will we really need to catch them>>> (For the sake of argument, the following all also include Saints beating Leicester and Leeds). Leicester (Plymouth (a), WBA (a), Saints (h), Preston (a), Blackburn (h). Of note perhaps, is that WBA to Preston is 10day period with 3 reasonably tricky games - and yes, i know our run is worse! Scenarios: Leicester finish above us - very likely (see below) Leicester with an additional loss (lets say WBA away) hit 97points and finish above us - Irrelevant, but may happen i guess. Alternatively, Leicester with two draws 96 points and a significantly better GD - We still aren't catching them... Leicester with one loss and and a draw (you're looking for Preston (A) or Blackburn (H - final day) for that draw mind...) would hit 95points and we could catch them... again, i think this could maybe happen, but very unlikely... Leeds (Blackburn(H), Boro(A), QPR (A) Leeds with an additional loss (lets say Boro away) hit 93points and we can catch them - I can't see this at all. Leeds with an additional draw (lets also say Boro away) hit 95points - Could happen but i still can't really see this. It would also supercharge the last game and make it very hard to get that win at Elland Road (imagine the late night fireworks etc). In this scenario we can catch them and get 2nd though. Yay, party! Leeds win every game bar saints, they hit 96points and finish above us due to their vastly superior goal difference - I see this as a pretty likely outcome for those matches lets be honest. All in all, we have to go on a crazy run with no real evidence that we're capable of it, and we need the other teams to do pretty poorly (by their standards this season)... sadly just one set of dropped points out of the boro, ipswich, and blackburn results would have made the difference...

Looks like a sell out tbh. Left it quite late to book tickets and most blocks are down to only a smattering of single seats available. Should be a good atmosphere. Personally think we'll win this one. Dream to be well and truly on, or dashed, vs Leicester i reckon. If we win every game we've got every chance of getting 2nd even now... Although we would need someone like West Brom to beat leciester.

Stranger things have happened. If Ipswich and Leeds (which is possible) continue to fluff their lines then that final game of the season at Elland Road could be seriously intense. If we did somehow manage to win every single game from here on out then it would be a serious achievement.

#WifeyForLifey....

Barbed wire to stop the players from leaving?

Uh huh... right... and how did Koeman's Everton get on in the SPL? 😉 Selles' record at Reading is of note in comparing to Martin's - particularly as they have somewhat similar possession orientated styles. Similarly, Jones' record at Luton in the championship is relevant when comparing to how Martin has performed at Swansea and Saints - albeit with an allowance for their very differing styles 🤷‍♀️.

Technically, if we win every game (and either leeds drop more points or we turn the epic GD around), then we can finish above Leeds... and probably still come 3rd 🤣

2 assists in 2 for Stephens!

We're run by a man who credits himself with Brentford's rise. What's worse is he's one of those guys who can't imagine doing things any differently to what he's done before, and he's prepared to break any system to suit the mould he wants. Saints were functioning well enough when they came in (given the lack of input under Goa), and had started to turn the transfer side of things around once Hassenhuttle and Semmens had full control in the past year or so. Yes we were losing pace with the league, but what do people expect with no investment compared to every other team? SR then came in, undermined the manager and dismantled the coaching setup, completely disrupted the backroom staff across basically the entire club (from the academy and scouting to the business and financial side), and then they spent over £160M reshaping the squad with players that either weren't needed/ready, or didn't fit... and in the middle of all that, they singularly failed to do the most important thing - which was to sign a bloody striker to replace the goals of Ings. How you can spend £160M on a side with a good manager that badly needed investment and it make them worse is beyond me... but thats SRs legacy - relegation. The level of change they oversaw was a clear klaxon that they didn't know what they were doing, and that they were going to break everything to follow their incredibly arrogant and vain view that they were secret geniuses who were smarter than everyone else and who could do something new in football... The grand summation of all that, is that Rasmus Ankerson has taken the club with the 11th highest cumulative prem points total, and turned them into a club shitter than Brentford (when he was there). Russel Martin is just the latest instalment of the man's ego project. And in terms of transfer policy this summer... No decent fullback cover, no depth at CDM, and still needing a proper goalscorer.

Nothing about today was Jack Stephen's fault...

What, like some of our know it all fans did to Hassenhuttle since the first game of last season? 🤣

Better raise our game for Watford or they'll castrate us on the weekend. They've got some serious pace and power in their locker and will be looking at us with knowing full well that even a counter attacking setup should deliver them at least a couple of goals.

The constant exclusion of players like Edozie and Sulemana is baffling, as was the swap out of Alcaraz for Rothwell. The only conclusion i can come to is that the manager actively dislikes flair players that take responsibility for getting us forward, carrying the ball up the pitch, playing good through balls etc. If we can't get through the opposition with short sideways passes its no good... seemingly anyway. And what is worse, is that i am sure every single person on here could see we needed to make attacking changes from about 30min into the game, certainly long before we did in the 2nd half.

The blueprint for how to knock us out of the playoffs has been well and truly drawn up. 17th in the league nearly beat us and made a draw look easy... our form is in freefall. 🤣

Martin wants us to retain possession!

That's because they actually take responsibility for carrying the ball and beating a man. Rather than always looking for the short layoff pass.

Blackburn timewasting down by their own corner flag. What a dire game.

This is dire this half. Being comfortably outplayed by 17th in the league.

Reckon Edozie would do well in this game. Able to hold onto the ball and actually carry it / beat a man.

Poor refereeing this game again. Every time we make a run they foul us or pull us back, and he lets them do it. Kills our game and wastes time.... to which we played only 2.5min of the allocated 3min stoppage time... and the fact that there was only 3min in itself is laughable.

Is Rothwell playing?

Partially agree with this, but also think its a bit harsh / too simplistic. We've signed a lot of youngsters or technically skilful players in recent seasons - and as yet they don't have the fight to get stuck in to the nitty gritty of this league - i can't recall who it was we played a month or so ago, but one of their players absolutely booted Edozie early on and he was in his shell for the rest of the game. As for stopping teams playing through us, we need two defensively good CMs to play the way we want to play - Its about balance and i really don't think its rocket science to be a bit less open tbh. We seem to go from passing it around our backline for fun, to then having no one sitting in the middle 3rd / covering outside the box when an attack fizzles out, allowing a break. Hoping it gets sorted by the playoffs for obvious reasons. Flynn Downes is class for this level, a real rolls royce of a Championship player imho. From a balance perspective, Smallbone is okay alongside him (provided he is tasked with remaining defensively aware - which isn't always the case, and causes issues when he isn't), and Charles would be okay as well but barely gets to play in this scenario.... What i'd love is a Wanyama style player to be the anchor, and Downes to sit alongside as CM. Sadly what tends to happen, is that time and time again we play only one player operating in a CM or CDM role (i.e. we overcommit on attacks a lot) and then wonder why a mix of 5 strikers, wingers, CAMs don't defend / win the ball back well. Maybe it doesn't need to be a dedicated CM/CDM player (i.e. Aribo adds a lot of strength and ball retention in the middle third), but we simply have to retain that cover in CM when we're attacking... Otherwise its a knife through butter on the counter every time - The oppo spray one ball into their own unmarked central players, who then picks a pass over the top or out to the wingers, and they're away, whilst we've got the majority of our outfield players over committed.

I suspect Ratcliffe had a hand in that given his reputation. He isn't a nice bit of work and we dared to say no to him and dig our heals in... Having a little stir of the club/fanbase's morale on the evening of a season defining match just summarises the spite of the man frankly. I don't know what our choices are, but if Wilcox has to give 1 years notice then i would make him work it through the summer as a minimum. The bloke banged on about integrity when he joined, and he's an ex player with familiarity to contracts and transfers between clubs - so lets see some. Equally though, if United think early april is sufficient time to plan their summer, then Saints should be able to do similar, albeit from a slightly later starting point... And it is only Jason Wilcox at the end of the day... If he were irreplaceable we'd be in the automatics with a raft of his signings as our standout key players. As it is, he's presided over some suspect deals - the rothwell/Alcaraz loans (swap out) in particular were bizarre to me, as is the mess at full back (which i was moaning about since pre-season and has avoidably cost us points). Our best attackers seem to still be Stu, AA, and Fraser (just coincidence that they're all Scottish and mates with the manager? 😅), and the JWP sale remains pivotal in my mind as to why we aren't getting promoted - for a side that relies on possession in midfield and pressing and intensity out of it, we chose £30M and smallbone over promotion.... You could argue that £15M of that went on Charles who barely plays as well. Plus side though, Sports Republic know exactly what they're doing going into another summer of complete upheaval at the club (3rd time's the charm right?🤩).

So... if you practice that for 10years, you'll basically have no knackers left to hurt? It really is a very good analogy for being a saints fan 🤣

Well, i think we all know that the prem doesn't want 3 relegated sides getting promoted... 😑