Saint Paul C

This is why..

Ohh, Saints in Melbourne.. I'm going to that. Anyone else?

For those that believe that humans run the earths climate, this may add some perspective on just how insignificant we really are in the BIG scheme of things. http://www.onemorelevel.com/game/scale_of_the_universe_2012

For anyone willing to read further on the modelling issues relating to GW, MMGW, MMCC, CC.. then the link below discusses some of the issues around modelling techniques and climate and possible reasons for model oversensitivity http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/03/oversensitive-final.pdf

Causes and implications of the growing divergence between climate model simulations and observations For the past 15+ years, there has been no increase in global average surface temperature, which has been referred to as a ‘hiatus’ in global warming. By contrast, estimates of expected warming in the first several decades of 21st century made by the IPCC AR4 were 0.2C/decade. This talk summarizes the recent CMIP5 climate model simulation results and comparisons with observational data. The most recent climate model simulations used in the AR5 indicate that the warming stagnation since 1998 is no longer consistent with model projections even at the 2% confidence level. Potential causes for the model-observation discrepancies are discussed. A particular focus of the talk is the role of multi-decadal natural internal variability on the climate variability of the 20th and early 21st centuries. The “stadium wave” climate signal is described, which propagates across the Northern Hemisphere through a network of ocean, ice, and atmospheric circulation regimes that self-organize into a collective tempo. The stadium wave hypothesis provides a plausible explanation for the hiatus in warming and helps explain why climate models did not predict this hiatus. Further, the new hypothesis suggests how long the hiatus might last. Implications of the hiatus are discussed in context of climate model sensitivity to CO2 forcing and attribution of the warming that was observed in the last quarter of the 20th century. Significance of the pause Under conditions of anthropogenic greenhouse forcing: • •Only 2% of climate model simulations produce trends within the observational uncertainty • Modelled pauses longer than 15 years are rare; the probability of a modelled pause exceeding 20 yrs. is vanishing small Questions raised by the discrepancy • Are climate models too sensitive to greenhouse forcing? • Is climate model treatment of natural climate variability inadequate? • Is the IPCC’s ‘extremely likely’ confidence level regarding anthropogenic attribution since 1950 justified? • Are climate model projections of 21st century warming too high? • How confident are we of the observations? I. Where is the missing heat? Hypothesis I: It MUST be hiding in the ocean • Evidence of deep ocean sequestration is indirect; few observations of deep ocean temperature prior to 2005 • Ocean models do not transfer heat in the vertically anywhere near as efficiently as inferred from the ECMWF reanalyses •Concerns about the heat returning to the surface seem unrealizable if the heat is well mixed – 2nd law constraints Hypothesis II: There is NO missing heat; changes in clouds have resulted in more reflection of solar radiation • Global cloud satellite dataset only goes back to 1983; calibration issues complicate trend analyses • Global energy balance analyses are associated with significant uncertainties II. Maybe the models are OK, the problem is the external forcing There is significant disagreement among different forcing data sets CMIP5 simulations were forced by single ‘best estimate’ data sets There has been no systematic effort to assess uncertainty in these data sets or the sensitivity of climate models to forcing uncertainty These uncertainties have not been factored into the 20th century attribution assessments III. ENSO (natural internal variability) is masking the greenhouse warming IV. Multidecadal modes of natural internal variability A.Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), etc. are superimposed on the anthropogenic warming trend, and should be included in attribution studies and future projections B.Climate shifts hypothesis: synchronized chaos framework for natural internal variability (shift ca. 2001) C.Stadium wave hypothesis: spatio-temporal pattern of signal propagation through a synchronized network of climate indices; quasi-periodic 50-80 yr tempo, with amplitude and tempo modified by external forcing Implications for the future: I. IPCC AR5 view The hiatus will end soon, with the next El Nino Implications for the future: II. View emphasizing natural internal variability • The ‘hiatus’ will continue at least another decade • Climate models are too sensitive to external forcing • Hiatus persistence beyond 20 years would support a firm declaration of problems with the climate models • Incorrect accounting for natural internal variability implies: o Biased attribution of 20th century warming o Climate models are not useful on decadal time scales Summary of major uncertainties • Deep ocean heat content variations and mechanisms of vertical heat transfer between the surface and deep ocean • Uncertainties associated with external forcing data and implications for attribution analysis and future projections • Sensitivity of the climate system to external forcing • Clouds: trends, forcing, feedbacks, and aerosol – cloud interactions • Nature and mechanisms of multidecadal natural ‘internal’ variability • Unknowns – solar indirect effects, magnetic and electric field effects, orbital (tidal and other) effects, core-mantle interactions, etc. http://judithcurry.com/2014/03/04/causes-and-implications-of-the-pause/

All fair points. Following on from that, I found this reposte to Easterbrooks article which you may like http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/02/06/on-don-easterbrooks-updated-projection/

Dr. Don Easterbrook – a climate scientist and glacier expert from Washington State who correctly predicted back in 2000 that the Earth was entering a cooling phase – says to expect colder temperatures for at least the next two decades. Easterbrook’s predictions were “right on the money” seven years before Al Gore and the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize for warning that the Earth was facing catastrophic warming caused by rising levels of carbon dioxide, which Gore called a “planetary emergency.” “When we check their projections against what actually happened in that time interval, they’re not even close. They’re off by a full degree in one decade, which is huge. That’s more than the entire amount of warming we’ve had in the past century. So their models have failed just miserably, nowhere near close. And maybe it’s luck, who knows, but mine have been right on the button,” Easterbrook told CNSNews.com. “For the next 20 years, I predict global cooling of about 3/10ths of a degree Fahrenheit, as opposed to the one-degree warming predicted by the IPCC,” said Easterbrook, professor emeritus of geology at Western Washington University and author of 150 scientific journal articles and 10 books, including “Evidence Based Climate Science,” which was published in 2011. (See EasterbrookL coming-century-predictions.pdf) In contrast, Gore and the IPCC’s computer models predicted “a big increase” in global warming by as much as one degree per decade. But the climate models used by the IPCC have proved to be wrong, with many places in Europe and North America now experiencing record-breaking cold. Easterbrook noted that his 20-year prediction was the “mildest” one of four possible scenarios, all of which involve lower temperatures, and added that only time will tell whether the Earth continues to cool slightly or plunges into another Little Ice Age as it did between 1650 and 1790. … On the PDO: “What I did was I projected this same pattern forward to see what it would look like. And so in 1999, which was the year after the second warmest year on record, the PDO said we’re due for a climate change, and so I said okay. It looks as though we’re going to be entering a period of about three decades or so of global cooling. “And so in 2000, I published a paper with the Geological Society of America in which I predicted that we were going to stop warming and begin cooling for about 25 or 30 years, on the basis of taking the temperature records that go back a century or more and simply repeating the pattern of warming and cooling, warming and cooling, and so on. PDO fluctuations and projections to 2040 based on past PDO history. - See more at: http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/barbara-hollingsworth/climate-scientist-who-got-it-right-predicts-20-more-years-global#sthash.jTgQD6lj.dpuf

Your comments on Heuristic modelling are valid. A risky approach but when applied in the right scenarios a useful tool. In my field, working with CSG companies to enable them to understand the characteristics of reservoirs including gas saturation, porosity etc.. we typically rely on multivariant, multivariate, multidimensional and stochastic methods. However, is some cases the use of correctly applied heuristic principles enables us to jump the gap to an accurate yield forecast for wells/stages etc. If you have access take a look at an SPE (Society of Petroleum Engineers) paper 135523 I had involvement in which describes a practical application of these. Looks like Kotov has no been overly prolific with his output as the paper I linked was approx 10yrs old and nothing of note since 2007.

This paper is worth a read - if slightly long and heavy on the technicalities of modelling techniques Records from the GISP2 Greenland ice core are considered in terms of dynamical systems theory and nonlinear prediction. Dynamical systems theory allows us to reconstruct some properties of a phenomenon based only on past behavior without any mechanistic assumptions or deterministic models. A short-term prediction of temperature, including a mean estimate and confidence interval, is made for 800 years into the future. The prediction suggests that the present short-time global warming trend will continue for at least 200 years and be followed by a reverse in the temperature trend. http://www.kgs.ku.edu/Conferences/IAMG//Sessions/N/Papers/kotov.pdf

Hey, I've not made an assertion on the "accuracy etc.. " of the published article only to post on here for consideration. I find all of this debate really interesting. As a left leaning, POM living in Aus, working in the Coal Seam Gas industry and with a strong understanding of Statistics, Analytics, forecasting and the application of these and seeing some of the utter rubbish posted on both sides here is amusing. I'm a firm believer in responsible consumption, the application of technology to reduce our environmental impact and that climate change is a constant we cannot control - no matter how much tax you ask people to pay.

A newly-uncovered and monumental calculating error in official US government climate data shows beyond doubt that climate scientists unjustifiably added on a whopping one degree of phantom warming to the official "raw" temperature record. Skeptics believe the discovery may trigger the biggest of all 'climate con' scandals in Congress and sound the death knell on American climate policy. Independent data analyst, Steven Goddard, released (January 19, 2014) his telling study of the officially adjusted and homogenized US temperature records relied upon by NASA, NOAA, USHCN and scientists around the world to 'prove' our climate has been warming dangerously. Goddard reports "I spent the evening comparing graphs…and hit the NOAA motherlode." His diligent research exposed the real reason why there is a startling disparity between the 'raw' thermometer readings, as reported by measuring stations, and the 'adjusted' temperatures, those that appear in official charts and government reports. In effect, the adjustments to the 'raw' thermometer measurements made by the climate scientists "turns a 90 year cooling trend into a warming trend" says the astonished Goddard. Goddard's plain-as-day evidence not only proves the officially-claimed one-degree increase in temperatures is entirely fictitious, it also discredits the reliability of any assertion by such agencies to possess a reliable and robust temperature record.

+1.

This made me chuckle

A pioneering climate scientist with decades at Harvard and MIT, Lindzen sees his discipline as being deeply compromised by political pressure, data fudging, out-and-out guesswork, and wholly unwarranted alarmism. In a shot across the bow of what many insist is indisputable scientific truth, Lindzen characterizes global warming as “small and ... nothing to be alarmed about.” In the climate debate — on which hinges far-reaching questions of public policy what-catastrophe?

Same but different ------ Davis ----- Clyne - Fonte - Yoshi - Fox ----- Cork ------ JWP - Gaston - Davis - Reed --- Ossie -------

assuming we have a couple to come back from "injury" Gazza Clyne - Lovren - Fonte - Shaw --- Cork - Davis --- Lallana - Ramirez - Jrod SRL Also, we have to assume that ***ttenberg will award Everton a dodgy late 2nd half penalty so need to make sure we've got at least a couple before this certainty happens.

Living in Brissie and regularly traveling down to Sydney for work the are a huge number of flights between the 2 cities. Virgin, Qantas, Jetstar and Tiger all fly hourly between the 2 and booking flights is easy via http://www.webjet.com.au/ or http://www.skyscanner.com.au/. The price varies from day to day, and from flight to flight but you can usually get seats around the $100 mark (1-way), sometimes cheaper on Jetstar or Tiger. You wont save any money booking in the UK unless you bundle in with international flights. It's a whole days drive, approx 11hrs non-stop, and the roads on the northern NSW section around Byron - Yamba are none too flash. Nothing like the A34 - more akin to the A35 from Dorchester westwards at best with lots of 50KM/H zones heavily enforced by a zealous police force. Ping me if you want any more advice/help. Cheers, Paul.

Positives - likely to see some quality additions to the squad in the next couple of transfer windows. Negatives - who'll take on some of the "surplus to requirements" players we now have on the books? To navigate to a possible top 8 spot by the end of this season I think we'll need to 1. Buy a decent back-up for Boruc 2. Replace Yosh/Jos with another Lovren 3. Replace Gaston with a similar player who fits our style better 4. Pick JRod and Ossie as our preferred front 2 and use SRL as a super-sub until his form comes back

I'd like to see us play a more attacking style at home, especially in the more "winnable" games - just tweaking the current line-up by pushing the 2nd DM into a more traditional CM role but reverting to type when needed if under pressure from the opposition by moving Davis into the DM role and JRod to (a)ML -------- Gazza -------- Clyne - Fonte - Lovren - Shaw -------- Big Vic ------- - JWP - Lallana - Davis - ---- SRL ------------ --------- JRod -------

A new study suggests that the ban on ozone depleting chemicals may have also impacted the rise in global temperatures. CFC gases were responsible for a massive hole in the ozone layer but they also had a powerful greenhouse effect. The authors link a ban on their use to a "pause" or slowdown in temperature increases since the mid 1990s. The research is published in the journal Nature Geoscience. The subject of a hiatus or standstill in global temperatures rises since 1998 has been the subject of intense debate among scientists, and it has been used as a key argument by some to show that the impacts of global warming have been exaggerated. "Our analysis suggests that the reduction in the emissions of ozone-depleting substances under the Montreal Protocol, as well as a reduction in methane emissions, contributed to the lower rate of warming since the 1990s," the authors write. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-24874060

Keep the momentum going and play a strong team who'll have a couple missing due to red cards on Saturday -------- Boruc -------- Clyne - Fonte - Lovren - Shaw ---- Cork -- Big Vic ----- Lallana - Davis - J-Rod ---- SRL -----

I fully expect Stoke to try and kick lumps out of us in the first 30 mins. Wouldn't be suprised to see Luke or JWP go off injured within the first 20. I'd be more than happy to come away from that 5h!t hole with as few injuries as possible and a 1-0 win. COYS

I fully expect Stoke to try and kick lumps out of us in the first 30 mins. Wouldn't be suprised to see Luke or JWP go off injured within the first 20. I'd be more than happy to come away from that 5h!t hole with as few injuries as possible and a 1-0 win. COYS

According to this http://principia-scientific.org/latest-news/163-new-discovery-nasa-study-proves-carbon-dioxide-cools-atmosphere.html NASA says CO2 cools the atmosphere. Que? Also worth a read http://joannenova.com.au/2013/09/ipcc-in-denial-just-so-excuses-use-mystery-ocean-heat-to-hide-their-failure/ No settling of science from what I'm seeing.