NewYorkSaint

It always puzzles me when people refer to particular teams as a bogey team for us. I get that sometimes a team has a bad run against another team. But is there any evidence at all that that run has predictive power over a future result (beyond the actual relative strengths of the team)? I suspect it's overwhelmingly just statistical noise, and that the only thing you should focus on for an actual prediction is the current quality and form of the two teams. If being a bogey team is actually an actionable thing, could someone please explain their theory about what is the cause of it. Does one changing room somehow put strange chemicals into the blood of the opposition players? Is the journey to that ground somehow destructive to playing ability? That they always have incompatible weather? That one manager always outthinks the other? Or perhaps there's an actual bogey monster that decides to adopt certain teams and make sure we can't beat them or vice versa?! Random fluctuation makes it almost inevitable that when you have just say a dozen games to look at between two clubs (compared with hundreds played over several years) there will inevitably be pairs of clubs that have unbalanced results against each other. I'm pretty sure that's all that being a bogey club is. Don't rely on it for betting or predicting! And on that basis, given that most of these fixtures are against top half clubs about equally spread above and below us, I predict two wins, two draws, two losses for 8 points.

It's the kind of professional away win that other teams always seem to pull off and we rarely do. VvD, Clasie, Tadic, Pelle... all getting stronger each game. Davis had a great game too. Almost every time we gain possession Davis has something to do with it. He's constantly harrying, pressing. A beautiful ingredient of our secret sauce. Meanwhile NBC commentators agree that bertrand is best left back in premier league. Now we just need Spurs to lose 5-0 tomorrow, and we go 6th. More realistically, a gap is starting to open up above the mid-table teams......

Give credit to Bournemouth for a superb 2nd half response. They gambled on speed, out ran us and out-thought us. Without knowing all the facts, certainly looked like Koeman shd have subbed Wanyama at half-time. But more than that, he's got to find a way of getting the team fired up for when we come back out. It certainly happened at Chelsea, but on a lot of other games our early 2nd half performance has lacked energy. That seems very fixable. Tied for 6th place. Not too bad.

Great half by Saints. Really sweet football. Lighting up the TV here in US. meanwhile radio solent commentators were cool on Clasie as just doing his job. They must have missed that incredible ball to Pelle that set up the first goal. Clasie's starting to look really exciting to me. Beautiful, incisive passing and relentless energy. And how good is Davis becoming, as his confidence grows?! Our accented attack of Pellè, Mané and Tadïc just get better every game.

Impressive fight-back. Koeman with some truly positive subs. GREAT to see Gaston assist for the equalizer. Plus, he had a fantastic run just after that that Pele could have made us all v happy on. For a fraction of the money we fought hard and got the point.

I enjoyed that. We've been playing much more exciting football than Liverpool. Some really beautiful one-touch build-up play. Clasie starting to look good... a couple of great tackles and a sweet switch of play to the right. Victor is incredible. Hope his ankle OK. We can do this!

Red v green. An early Xmas present please, Santa!

The game is to run live on NBC's main channel. will be glued...

Like this line-up! Clasie, it's time to rise and shine!! 0-1 saints, with Mane scoring from a delightfully lofted through ball from Clasie.

Really proud of the team. The game's on NBC's main channel here in the US. The whole country saw how unjust the refereeing is. Commentators here certain there was a penalty. Hopefully the ref sees that at half time and adjusts. JWP for Romeu for dead balls and to avoid a sending off.

Would just like to put in a word for JWP. He gets a lot of stick here, but I thought he played a key part today. Some great touches and passes, and made the first goal with an inch-perfect near-post corner. But most important is how often he plays a role in winning the ball back for us. He's always in there challenging, and even when he doesn't win the ball personally, he often forces loose passes from the other side. The NBC commentators were oohing over him this side of the pond. VvD is exciting signing. Single best thing about today's game? the football itself was quality. Some of our recent games have been bland and predictable. Win or lose, I want Saints game to be fun to watch. We got that today.

Love the pace of our play. We're pressing well, and fast in possession. Fantastic JWP/VvD corner/goal. Bertrand/Tadic combo looks wonderful, as does Mane/Cedric. Wanyama mostly incredible play, couple of oopsies. On a knife-edge though. Here's to a great 2nd half and 3 pts.

He was terrific first half hour against Man U.... made the first goal.

I predict the anti-Davis+JWP-together meme may get spiked today. Seems to me JWP has been getting sharper, more creative, more physical last few games. And Davis adds extraordinary energy. If we want a successful high-press strategy, those two are key to it imho. Or maybe I'm just reacting to the pre-game cynicism. Personally prefer to go in excited, optimistic and as a supporter. 2-1 Saints.

Frustrating day. Football needs video reviews, it really does. It's ridiculous that they're allowed a goal that's clearly offside in 5 seconds of video review. Absent that and Yoshida's moment, we're all celebrating here. At our best, we're amazing. But we need to find a way to win the ball back. No intensity in much of the second half today. silver linings: Pelle looking really strong. JWP great first half.

We've played by far the more attractive football. Wonderful to see JWP playing so well. Wanyama owning the midfield. Pelle killing it. their goal clearly offside, though admittedly our defense looking dodgy. Hope Targett's OK. Yoshida looked really strong. I'm predicting 2-2, but would love to see us take this. 4-1 for 6th place!

'Prone to injury' has always struck me as an unfair label. It *might* be true, but if you're talking about, say, five different instances of getting injured, that could also easily just be bad luck. Also, any super-fast, tricksy player tends to get hacked down a lot. At his best, Gaston is beautiful to watch. Personally I hope he gets a chance this year to prove the naysayers wrong.

The main argument for leaving someone like Mane up field is that, because of pace and guile, it will force opposition to hold back not one, but two extra players. That means you have a better edge in your own penalty box defending... AND at least a chance of a breakaway goal.

Ease up on big Vic. Anyone's allowed to be ambitious. He's been spectacular for Saints last couple of years. And he will be again this season.

Fantastic. Football always surprises. Just when you think a dull season in prospect.... boom! boom! and BOOM! Love it.

Exciting half. Tadic is back! JWP had a great half. (I thought the pre-match-acid poured on him was way over done). Mane is wondrous. Constantly trying to create. sometimes results in ball given away, but you have to gamble to make it. Great great assist on the goal. C'mon saints!

Too much negativity, gang. Yes, the VW situation is upsetting. But you're not giving JWP a fair chance. On his day, he's an wonderful creator. He always gives his all. I think there's going to be some fire out there today. If Tadic is back to fit, and Mane turns on a little magic, we'll be on the scoresheet before long and life will feel a lot better. Meanwhile, we're supporters. Let's support!

A little perspective, guys. It's bad, and I agree our midfield way underpowered. But there are always two teams involved. Everton have been excellent, really excellent. It's not over yet, either. A goal in the first 15 mins of second half, and we can still win it. Let's see how Koeman reshapes. And, if you want a silver lining, this will confirm club's determination to buy before deadline.

At risk of flogging a dead horse, in a league where you get 3 pts for a win and only 1 for a draw, it's definitely worth gambling on winning even if it increases your chance of losing. Imagine two teams that were overall equally good, in the sense that over the course of a season their net goal difference was zero, but one team only let in 30 and scored 30, while the other let in 60 and scored 60. That means on average, both teams will have the same number of wins and losses. BUT, the team that scores more and lets in more goals will have a lower % of DRAWS. That's because the first team will almost always score or let in 0-2 goals, while the second team will score or let in 0-4 goals... that greater variability means more chance of a result one way of the other. So the first team might have 13 wins, 13 losses and 12 draws, and the second team 16 wins, 16 losses and 6 draws. That means it will actually clock up more points (54) than the lower scoring, better defense team (51). It will also be a helluva lot more entertaining. So in that sense, if you could dial up attack at the exact same rate you dialed back defense, you should do so. That, by the way, is why the 3pt incentive is there. It's to stop the game becoming boring. So count me among those who welcome our new uber-attacking Saints.

Yes, NBC. Superb streaming onto a computer in the US if you have a cable subscription. (and usually on TV too, though sometimes better HD on computer!)