StatsBomb: What has happened to Southampton?

http://statsbomb.com/2017/05/what-has-happened-to-southampton/

A statistical analysis of our performance this season.

Thought it was a nice read and pretty much confirmed my thoughts about this season.

Good read, and certainly suggests we've had more than our fair share of bad luck. The whole expected goals thing is an interesting take and often useful as an indicator, but I do wonder quite far you can take conclusions and analysis from it. It depends what the debate is - a piece a few weeks back claiming WBA had been incredibly lucky seemed to have merit and be easy to justify, but I'm not sure that Southampton's "shot volume" is necessarily an indicator for bad luck. The clip against Man City (ending with Tadic miss, ugh) is a perfect example of why I think we could end up being good next season. We've produced moments like that a fair bit. Whether or not we can consistently play like that, not just within games but over the course of weeks and months is another matter though.

The bit about Davis & Romeu was interesting. I think most would agree that Davis shouldn't be playing as a DM, but mainly because he dawdles on the ball and doesn't have right defensive mentality for that role, not because he isn't attacking enough! But perhaps his tendency to 'recycle' the ball wide is also a legitimate criticism?

One area we have definitely been unlucky with this year is the fixture list. The Europa League and League Cup fixture congestion was unhelpful but unavoidable, however to compound it we were absolutely screwed by the TV scheduling at Christmas, then had immense bad luck with the FA Cup scheduling, where we due to face a team still in the competition on the equivalent PL weeks. That would finally have been a period where we had one game per week, and instead we now have another fixture pile up at the end. Not only that, but we have to play every few days against teams gunning for the top 4! Also notice that even though we are playing on Wednesday next week, our game at the weekend isn't on Saturday, but Sunday. TV once again shafting us.

This is the key lesson for some of our contributors to take on board:

"while 38 games on the face of it sounds like a massive number, it’s still a small enough sample size to have variance run amok"

Excellent article. Sums up my feelings quite nicely.

I do think Puel has earned another season.

This is the key lesson for some of our contributors to take on board:

 

"while 38 games on the face of it sounds like a massive number, it’s still a small enough sample size to have variance run amok"

Yet he cites no evidence to this end - a bit ironic coming from someone who uses metrics to predict season finishes, presumably because he believes they're statistically significant. Bizarre. Would help if these types of article cited p-values, confidence intervals etc for their various claims and estimates but guess that's too much to expect from amateur journalism.

Yet he cites no evidence to this end - a bit ironic coming from someone who uses metrics to predict season finishes, presumably because he believes they're statistically significant. Bizarre. Would help if these types of article cited p-values etc for their various claims but guess that's too much to expect from amateur journalism.

I think the word you're looking for is "popular", rather than necessarily "amateur" (although I'll save you the trouble of pointing out that the two are not mutually exclusive). I suspect he, quite rightly, thinks that only a small group of weirdos would be remotely interested in the mathematical theory behind everything postulated in the article.

I think the word you're looking for is "popular", rather than necessarily "amateur" (although I'll save you the trouble of pointing out that the two are not mutually exclusive). I suspect he, quite rightly, thinks that only a small group of weirdos would be remotely interested in the mathematical theory behind everything postulated in the article.

No it's definitely amateur...this isn't the moneyball equivalent of Richard Dawkins

Gabbiadini from day 1 and a keeper and it would have been a different season all round

Great Article and really highlights the good things that Redmond brings us

I think the word you're looking for is "popular", rather than necessarily "amateur" (although I'll save you the trouble of pointing out that the two are not mutually exclusive). I suspect he, quite rightly, thinks that only a small group of weirdos would be remotely interested in the mathematical theory behind everything postulated in the article.

I agree the distinction is not necessarily one of relevance. I have no idea quite how capable he is in terms of his statistical nous: he doesn't really give much. Yes, quoting proper stats might turn off the idiots, but that's a good thing. I do seem to recollect that with a fair big of jiggery-pokery (technical term ) 32 can be a sufficient sample size although as has been said they usually look at 100 as a minimum and prefer 1000+. Ultimately I think there's not really much to it and it really only (at the risk of repeating here) repeats what people actually do see. I still remain wholly unconvinced that the xG measurement has any real validity, certainly as measuring certainty in a game such as footy just has no meaning unless you want to talk about pens taken by e.g. SRL or MLT.

Down to 10th, but happy to see Spurs lose. The twonks

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Down to 10th, but happy to see Spurs lose. The twonks

 

 

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Bottled it again. Poor mopo

The were pretty gash tonight.... Fonte looked solid

The downside..... WHU now above us

^Though we have 3 games in hand on them, albeit pretty tough ones.

^Though we have 3 games in hand on them, albeit pretty tough ones.

He knows, but will be delighted that he got a bite

Interesting.

It repeats what I've said about Romeu & Davis this season. It's pretty obvious to anyone who has played at any level. JWP, Davis & Romeu is not the right mix. That's why I think Hojberg will play much more next season.

Also agrees with what I've said about Tadic. Personally think it's time to let him go.

I can see 5 or 6 leaving this summer, but unlike previous years I think they won't be the obvious one. More like Tadic, Long & Jay Rod with MacCarthey & Gallagher in the match day squad.

Confirms exactly how I've felt about the season, being someone who's very interested in analysing a game statistically on my way home.

Great article. Well written and backed up clearly by evidence and case studies.

I don't disagree that Saints have had some great moments this season, but it's Puel's logic that makes me consider he isn't the best fit for Southampton. That and his boring charisma and poor grasp of English.

I have watched Puel substitute JWP twice and watched the opponents dominate the midfield afterwards. Then the next game he drops JWP altogether and we fail to beat Hull.

I also cannot understand why he doesn't sometimes change the system to 3-5-2. We obviously have the players to do this.

Eric Black fills me with no confidence.

Strachan, McMenemy, Souness, Koeman, Poch, Nichol....I held these managers so high in my respect. Puel is different.

There is something about him and maybe Puel wanted more out of Boufal and so knew what he was doing replacing JWP. Maybe he challenged Boufal to work harder defensively.

Maybe Rome needs more than one day to build and maybe there is logic that I don't see. He is obviously intelligent and there are no bad managers in the Premier league (except Moyes).

Long needs a strike partner to get the best out of him. Long and Gabbiadini working together in a mouth watering 3-5-2 system.

Depressing that we haven't tried it yet. All are opponents know how we'll set up. Boring, boring, boring!