Cheltenham Festival 16th March thread

[chrisobee]

Fancies here please. As I say for every big meeting don't forget the ATR £1000 free tipping challenge:

 

 

http://www.attheraces.com/cheltenham/tipping.aspx?hlid=507563&day=tue

 

Someone has to be win , it could be you though hopefully me !!

[chrisobee]

From main thread:

 

 

1:30 Supreme Novices

Oscar Whisky- Irishsaint 83

 

2.05 Arkle Challenge Trophy

Captain Cee Bee @ 3/1 - Irishsaint83

 

 

2.40 WH Handicap Trophy

 

Khachaturian- Irishsaint83

 

3.20 Smurfit Hurdle

 

Zaynar- Bungle

Punjabi- saint stevo, notnowcato

Celestial Halo- notnowcato

Go Native- notnowcato, Irish saint83

[irishsaint83]

From main thread:

1:30 Supreme Novices

Oscar Whisky- Irishsaint 83

Best place to do this is with PaddyPower - they are offering single win stakes back on all loosers if Dunguib wins, If dunguib wins (which i think it will) and oscar wiskey places(which i think it will) then you get your win stake back and you win your place!

 

2.05 Arkle Challenge Trophy

Captain Cee Bee @ 3/1 - Irishsaint83

Hard to see anything else - My banker for the festival at a great price

 

2.40 WH Handicap Trophy

Khachaturian- Irishsaint83

It fits in the tight window of past winners, ie weight, official rating and age.

 

3.20 Smurfit Hurdle

 

Zaynar- Bungle

Punjabi- saint stevo, notnowcato

Celestial Halo- notnowcato

Go Native- notnowcato, Irish saint83

No thoughts on the others -

Whilst Noel Meade's Cheltenham history isnt a great one, Go Native has a million pound to pick up for Stable, owners and jockey..... incentive is there and more importantly, the winning form.

[chrisobee]

Best place to do this is with PaddyPower - they are offering single win stakes back on all loosers if Dunguib wins, If dunguib wins (which i think it will) and oscar wiskey places(which i think it will) then you get your win stake back and you win your place!

 

I think Dunguib will win as well though much too short, good little bet this one !

[bungle]

Good advice on the paddypower bet, I will be doing that.

 

In the 2.40 I like The Package.

 

Can't argue with Captain Cee Bee.

[irishsaint83]

I think Dunguib will win as well though much too short, good little bet this one !

 

Hey hey..... someone agree's with me!! I've been trying to pick 2nd place since January!! Its a tough one, I hate going against Willie Mullins and he has 2 very good horses in this race, but Oscar Wiskey is unbeaten and Barry G has come good with some great results against all odds. If Dunguib makes a mistake (and his jumping is not the best of the field) then who knows but anytime i've seen Oscar Wiskey he has done what is required and taking the last he hit the fence over the last fence, didnt run on but still won by 2 lenghts (over 20 lenghts to 3rd) before that around xmas, he won comfortably again by around 7/8 lenghts.... that commands respect

[chrisobee]

Good advice on the paddypower bet, I will be doing that.

 

In the 2.40 I like The Package.

 

Can't argue with Captain Cee Bee.

 

Clearly it is worth looking around for this type of bet as of course it can give you the vital edge, finding the time is the problem so shared info on here is most welcome!

[saint_stevo]

Betfred offering the following,

Danguib

Master Minded

Big Bucks

Kauto Star

@10's. Will bet match up to £50 for new customers……Got £10 of mine and £10 of there's on it.

 

I also fancy the following this week, apologies for not having days/races next to em…..

 

The Package

Riverside Theatre

Garde Champetre

Swift Counsel

Mad Max

Mister McGoldrick

Poker De Sivola

Awesome George

Imperial Commander

[saint_stevo]

ok that should have gone into the other thread...

[chrisobee]

Hey hey..... someone agree's with me!! I've been trying to pick 2nd place since January!! Its a tough one, I hate going against Willie Mullins and he has 2 very good horses in this race, but Oscar Wiskey is unbeaten and Barry G has come good with some great results against all odds. If Dunguib makes a mistake (and his jumping is not the best of the field) then who knows but anytime i've seen Oscar Wiskey he has done what is required and taking the last he hit the fence over the last fence, didnt run on but still won by 2 lenghts (over 20 lenghts to 3rd) before that around xmas, he won comfortably again by around 7/8 lenghts.... that commands respect

 

The way Dunguib won the Deloitte Novice Hurdle was exceptional:

However, his short price makes the market for the outsiders and I think of those only 3 or 4 seem to have a realistic chance of winning. Oscar Whisky is one, Get Me Out of Here another.

[chrisobee]

ok that should have gone into the other thread...

 

For tomorow :

 

The Package - Tuesday 2.40

Riverside Theatre- Tuesday 2.05

Garde Champetre - Tuesday 4.00

Mad Max - Tuesday 2.05

[saint_stevo]

cheers mate

[sperm_john]

hey, haven't done much tipping for a while now, mainly due to laying off the horse betting for a good stretch, but i'm back in business and have been getting some good results ..so without further a due

 

my first tip of the week;

 

tuesday 16th, champion hurdle, 3.20

- starluck

 

i'd go down the each way option, this horse will at least finished placed, currently running at 12/1 with tote sport, possible to find better odds elswhere

 

more tips to come, good luck all, heres to a successful week =)

[notnowcato]

Supreme - i have fancy odds on Oscar Whiskey and will lay that back tomorrow and shovel it on Dunguib.

 

Arkle - Somersby.

 

William Hill - The Package. Chief George Dan to place.

 

Champion Hurdle - Awesome race. Think I have it covered with Go Native, Punjabi and Celestial Halo.

 

Other races to be studied tomorrow.

[labibs]

Supreme Novices - Dunguib

 

Arkle - Somersby

 

Glenfarclas (16:00) - Garde Champetre

 

Mares Hurdle - Easter Legend (E/W) (on at 21's)

 

Champion Hurdle - What a race! Could be anyone's. I''m keeping my powder dry and sitting back to enjoy this purely as a spectator.

 

Good luck to you all tmw, lets hope we all have something to cheer about come 17:00!

[saint_stevo]

quite like the look of medermit in the champion hurdle. Gonna stick with punjabi though, after the small fortune i won off it last year at 25s . Gone a bit mental tonight, signing up for online accounts left right and centre! Also spunked a load on the 'big 4' bet on betfred i mentioned before

[SNSUN]

Every year I have a flutter, and every year I end this week being much skinter. (If that's even a word. I will of course be betting again this year.

 

As for tips, I'm not putting any up. In past years, you lot have had far too easy a ride by avoiding the tips I put up. (...and correctly so)

 

Oh nuts to it. My selections (and for you to avoid) I have made for today are:

 

13:30 General Miller e/w

14:05 Mad MAx e/w

14:40 The Tother One e/w

16:00 Monkerhostin e/w

16:40 Carole's Legacy e/w

 

Not a lot of money, I'm not a big gambler. (Which is why I haven't gone bankrupt ;-))

Edited 16 March, 2010 by SNSUN

[chrisobee]

Every year I have a flutter, and every year I end this week being much skinter. (If that's even a word. I will of course be betting again this year.

 

As for tips, I'm not putting any up. In past years, you lot have had far too easy a ride by avoiding the tips I put up. (...and correctly so)

 

Oh nuts to it. My selections (and for you to avoid) I have made for today are:

 

13:30 General Miller e/w

14:05 Mad MAx e/w **

14:40 The Tother One e/w

16:00 Monkerhostin e/w

16:40 Carole's Legacy e/w

 

Not a lot of money, I'm not a big gambler. (Which is why I haven't gone bankrupt ;-))

 

** At least you only put the mockers on on of saints stevo's selection !! Anyway stevo with all the free bets you must accumulate you should be quids in, just wish there was even one online bookie I didn't have at least one account with

[chrisobee]

Not a lot of money, I'm not a big gambler. (Which is why I haven't gone bankrupt ;-))

 

Which is the smart way to bet, I can enjoy the racing without having a single bet though a few small sporting bets does add to that enjoyment. I'm guessing like me you have multiple accounts and cannot avail yourself of free bet offers for new clients. If not try :

 

 

http://bet72.com/big-free-bet-list/

 

http://www.freebetshere.com/

[chrisobee]

With thanks to Matt Bisogno who knows infinitely more about Horse Racing than I do a briefish guide to Day 1 :

 

http://www.geegeez.co.uk/4096/cheltenham-festival-2010-day-one-preview/

 

Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

 

 

Tapes up for Cheltenham 2010: Dunguib

 

It all kicks off with the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at 1.30. Dunguib should win. He reminds me of the magical mare, Like-A-Butterfly, who won four straight prior to taking on 28 rivals for the opener. Dunguib can hardly expect to win this swinging off the bridle, and there are lots of horses with which there is no form line. But he’s a proper racehorse, whatever noises people are making about sore shins and can’t jump and this and that.

 

Although he can hardly be considered value at around evens, I think he’s likely to win. The style and time of his victory over Fionnegas last time was breathtaking, and he did that apparently without jumping and with pain in his legs. Really? Come off it!

 

The Irish have traditionally had the best of the opening skirmish on the opening day, and I expect it to be the same tomorrow. If I had to back one each way, which I won’t be, I’d side with Philip Hobbs’ Menorah. I know he got beaten in a noddy race the other day, but his overall form level, against proven horses in UK, is as high as pretty much anything else, bar the favourite. And, at 12 or 14/1, he’s far better value for me than Get Me Out Of Here, at half that price.

 

Sure, Get Me Out Of Here won the totesport Trophy, which is a competitive enough heat. But he received weight from most of the field (and all of the leading contenders), bungled the last (and several before), and took a cut to his heel. Moreover, his trainer said that the plan was to win that race, and anything else would be a bonus. So he’ll have been cherry ripe that day. Keeping him at perfect pitch for another five weeks is a huge challenge and, whilst he should have further improvement, he’s not for me.

 

Timeform top two: Dunguib 166p, Get Me Out Of Here and Menorah, both 161p

 

 

 

Arkle Trophy

 

Next up it’s the Arkle Trophy, a steeplechase over two miles for novices. Both French Opera and Tataniano will contest the closing event of the week, the Grand Annual, as opposed to the second one, the Arkle. Bugger. It’s especially disappointing because I think this year’s renewal looks wide open, and there are reasons not to side with any of the market protagonists. And Timeform had French Opera rated just a pound below Captain Cee Bee and clear second best (I put him up at 33/1).

 

Captain Cee Bee is bidding to be the first nine year old winner since 1988, and only the third ever. The race was incepted in 1946! Good luck with that.

 

Although Somersby hasn’t raced for three months, and missed his prep due to abandonment, he might be the soundest bet in the race. His hurdles form was top drawer (third to Go Native and Medermit in the Supreme last year), and two bloodless victories over fences, including a definitive decision over the talented Crack Away Jack.

 

The Irish have a poor record in the Arkle, despite one of their newspapers sponsoring the race, and I expect the home team to grab the tuck again this time.

 

I don’t have a bet in the race after my two were pulled out (even more frustrating to learn that Timeform had French Opera rated just one pound inferior to Captain Cee Bee, and my ticket had him at 33/1!). But I might back Somersby on the day.

 

Timeform top two: Captain Cee Bee 169, Somersby 165p

 

 

 

William Hill Trophy

 

The first of the handicap races at the Festival, the William Hill Trophy acts as a nice buffer between the Arkle and the feature of the day, the Champion Hurdle. It’s a steeplechase, run over a distance of three miles and a hundred metres (mixing my imperials and my metrics nicely there). So, after the marathon, the winner will need a sprint!

 

My three against the field are The Package, Khachaturian, and Boychuk (if he gets in).

 

This race is normally won by a fancied runner, and I think The Package must go mighty close.

 

Khachaturian and Boychuk both have two ways of running: if either is on a going day, then we’ll have some fun and maybe cash a big ticket. But it’s possible they’ll not fancy it, and I’ll be left with The Package. That’s the chance you take.

 

[Note also that both the bigger priced duo are usually front-runners, so it will be interesting to see if they can get their preferred position.]

 

Also of interest in the race, at the top end of the weights, are the numerous Grand National entries having their final prep. The likes of Character Building (whose National chance I like very much), Comply Or Die and Niche Market will be interesting to observe, with an eye to Aintree.

 

Timeform top rated: The Package 172, a whole host of horses on 171

 

Champion Hurdle

 

After the hubbub of the handicap chase, comes the speed and style of the Champion Hurdle, the feature event on Day One, at 3.20. There have been a couple of significant ‘will he, won’t he’ scenarios in the run-up to this race, with both Solwhit and Binocular questionable starters.

 

I remember many moons ago Nick Mordin saying that Grade and Group 1 races are hard enough to win when everything has gone spot on, let alone with an interrupted preparation.

 

I mean, despite the staggering common sense virtue of that statement, why do we so often overlook it and try to find a justification for backing a horse whose prep has been stunted. It’s true that we might miss the occasional winner, but we’ll swerve plenty of losers as well.

 

For this reason alone, I’ll be against Solwhit (who, with no Cheltenham experience, couldn’t win anyway – according to the trends at least!) and Binocular (who was beaten fair and square at the last two Festivals and has done nothing to justify reversing form with a bunch of horses since).

 

Celestial Halo does have to overcome the poor run last time. But I reckon he’s Ruby’s best chance of a day one winner.

 

Timeform top two: Solwhit 176+, Zaynar 176

 

Cross Country Chase

 

Derided by many, it has proven a punters’ pal since its inception, and this year ought to be no exception.

 

Form over this variety of obstacles wins the day, and hat-trick seeking Garde Champetre will be very tough to beat. Biggest danger is likely to be stablemate L’Ami, and don’t rule out Sizing Australia.

 

Nothing British-trained is likely to get near first place (although Philip Hobbs has a surprisingly strong entry, given he’s no pedigree in these races at all).

 

I’ve not had a bet yet, but will be backing Garde Champetre (9/4), with a money-back saver on L’Ami (7/2).

 

Timeform top two: Garde Champetre 169, Monkerhostin, A New Story, both 168

 

Mares’ Hurdle

 

Tuesday’s finale is the Mares’ Hurdle, a Grade 2 over two and a half miles. It’s a new race, and in its two years, has seen a 20/1 winner and a 2/1 winner. It is not a race that I tend to play in. I’ll be finishing off my pint, and writing up my notes at this stage.

 

Quevega is the favourite, at a general 5/4, and this is PLENTY short enough for a horse who hasn’t raced since tailing off in Paris in May. That said, she won this race easily last year and, on that form, would be tough to beat.

 

The one I like though, is Voler La Vedette, an improving young lady, who has won four on the bounce, including a thirteen length trouncing of an admittedly unfit Go Native.

 

There’s nothing in this race of that calibre, including the short priced jolly, and at 5/2 she really should go close.

 

I’ve looked down the rest of the card trying to find a value alternative, but I can’t. Most of these would be uncompetitive in the handicap hurdles, so it is difficult to make a case for this race really.

 

Voler La Vedette for me.

 

Timeform top two: Quevega 171, Voler La Vedette 166

[bungle]

Right, today's bets:

 

1.05 Oscar Whiskey e/w on Paddy Power as per earlier in thread

 

2.05 Captain Cee Bee

4.00 Garde Champatre win double

 

2.40 The Package

3.20 Go Native

4.40 Voler La Vedette Patent

 

Actually hoping Zaynar wins the 3.20 as have him in ante-post double with Punchestowns tomorrow.

[notnowcato]

Woolcombe Folly to place in the Arkle.

 

Quevega in the Mares Hurdle.

[SNSUN]

** At least you only put the mockers on on of saints stevo's selection !! Anyway stevo with all the free bets you must accumulate you should be quids in, just wish there was even one online bookie I didn't have at least one account with

 

 

Yeah, sorry Stevo! Who knows, today might be my lucky day.

 

I missed a race from my earlier post, and it's the biggest of the day!

 

So in the 3:20, I have Celestial Halo to win. I apologise to anyone with this bet.

[saint_stevo]

Off to bookies at lunch as well.

 

Probably have a Quevega and Cee Bee double in there somewhere too.

 

How i wish pay day wasn't yesterday

[chrisobee]

Yeah, sorry Stevo! Who knows, today might be my lucky day.

 

I missed a race from my earlier post, and it's the biggest of the day!

 

So in the 3:20, I have Celestial Halo to win. I apologise to anyone with this bet.

 

It might be too late to apologise !!

[chrisobee]

Just have to decide now how best to use my free £2 Daily Mirror bet ( Hills) and £1 sun free bet ( Ladbrokes). Might as well go for something like Chain of Command at 200/1 (

1.30) though I do like Oscar Whisky more and more in the same race at about 9/1.

Hmm, could do both !

[Percysaint]

1.30 Dunjib

2.05 Riverside Thearter

2.40 Razor Royale

3.20 Medermit

 

Apoligies if I ruin anyone day in advance nut got a good feeling about 3 out of these 4

[chrisobee]

After much thought I'm going for ( in the ATR tipping challenge) :

 

1.30 Oscar Whisky 10 points ew at 10/1

2.05 Captain Cee Bee 20 points to win at 3/1 ( Simply I think will win IF doesn't get let down by his jumping. However, his name is the clincher ! )

2.40 The Package 15 points to win at SP ( so I'm hoping that will be at least 11/2)

3.20 Go Native 15 points to win at 9/2

4.00 Garde Champetre 10 points to win at SP ( so hoping for 2/1 +)

4.40 Voler La Vedette 20 points to win at SP - (my NAP of the day, hoping for 7/4+ )

 

Oops, just realised this exactly matches Bungle's tips ( though I know you want Zaynar to win), could be a sign though good or bad I don't know !!

[RedArmy]

Did a £1 patent.

 

Bensalem, Captain Cee Bee and Go Native.

[bungle]

After much thought I'm going for ( in the ATR tipping challenge) :

 

1.30 Oscar Whisky 10 points ew at 10/1

2.05 Captain Cee Bee 20 points to win at 3/1 ( Simply I think will win IF doesn't get let down by his jumping. However, his name is the clincher ! )

2.40 The Package 15 points to win at SP ( so I'm hoping that will be at least 11/2)

3.20 Go Native 15 points to win at 9/2

4.00 Garde Champetre 10 points to win at SP ( so hoping for 2/1 +)

4.40 Voler La Vedette 20 points to win at SP - (my NAP of the day, hoping for 7/4+ )

 

Oops, just realised this exactly matches Bungle's tips ( though I know you want Zaynar to win), could be a sign though good or bad I don't know !!

 

Well, let's hope we can't both be wrong on all 6 races!

[chrisobee]

Well, let's hope we can't both be wrong on all 6 races!

 

I wouldn't bet against that !!

[SO16_Saint]

Did a £1 patent.

 

Bensalem, Captain Cee Bee and Go Native.

 

what return would that give?

[chrisobee]

I didn't back Oscar Whisky but 4th was the very worst position, never understand why they only pay 1st 3 in some races including this one ?

Anyway, a bookies benefit. They'll be millions of pounds up already

[chrisobee]

what return would that give?

 

Of course it depends on the odds but all 3 winning would I figure pay £250-300 ?

[chrisobee]

Every year I have a flutter, and every year I end this week being much skinter. (If that's even a word. I will of course be betting again this year.

 

As for tips, I'm not putting any up. In past years, you lot have had far too easy a ride by avoiding the tips I put up. (...and correctly so)

 

Oh nuts to it. My selections (and for you to avoid) I have made for today are:

 

13:30 General Miller e/w Fell at 1st

14:05 Mad MAx e/w

14:40 The Tother One e/w

16:00 Monkerhostin e/w

16:40 Carole's Legacy e/w

 

Not a lot of money, I'm not a big gambler. (Which is why I haven't gone bankrupt ;-))

 

 

The 1st race tends to support that !!

[saint_stevo]

oh dear

[chrisobee]

Betfred offering the following,

Danguib

Master Minded

Big Bucks

Kauto Star

@10's. Will bet match up to £50 for new customers……Got £10 of mine and £10 of there's on it.

 

[/b]

 

Well with them it will remain. Very interesting point about the short run in, they mentioned it on the Morning Line. It might have changed the 1st 2, Danguib never seemed to be close enough.

[chrisobee]

oh dear

 

Yes !! Plenty more races to come though.

[RedArmy]

Of course it depends on the odds but all 3 winning would I figure pay £250-300 ?

Yeah, i think its about 280.

 

Got 3/1 on CCB

5/1 on bensalem

and 9/2 on go native.

 

a doube and 2 singles should be pretty nice too.

[chrisobee]

Captain Cee Bee seems to be the one we want to win in the next, been gambled into

9/4.

 

Edit: Well CCB was never in it.

Edited 16 March, 2010 by chrisobee

[chrisobee]

Yeah, i think its about 280.

 

Got 3/1 on CCB

5/1 on bensalem

and 9/2 on go native.

 

a doube and 2 singles should be pretty nice too.

 

 

Well a double and and a single it will have to be. The bookies are laughing after 2 races.

[Hatch]

Was in Ladbrokes just now, they announced that an Irish punter put £250,000 on Dunguid..

 

Big Oh dear.

[chrisobee]

Was in Ladbrokes just now, they announced that an Irish punter put £250,000 on Dunguid..

 

Big Oh dear.

 

Stupid money TBH.

[saint_stevo]

great

[bungle]

A great start to the festival!

Edited 16 March, 2010 by bungle

[REDARMY79]

2 seconds so far, The package in the next.

[chrisobee]

From main thread:

 

 

2.40 WH Handicap Trophy

 

Khachaturian- Irishsaint83

 

 

Is this one running ?

[chrisobee]

2 seconds so far, The package in the next.

 

Also popular on here, oh dear oh dear !

[tonibell]

I done two both each way and each way double KICKS FOR FREE 20/1 and BINOCULAR 7/1 2 x £10 each way and a £10 each way double played £60

[saint_stevo]

Package?