Saints home form...

[gjphilsaint]

puts us bottom of the league!!!

 

http://stats.football365.com/dom/ENG/teams/Southampton.html

[Mr X]

If you don't win at least half your home games you go down simple as that

[Nexstar]

If you don't win at least half your home games you go down simple as that

 

Last season we won 9/23 and stayed up.

[Mr X]

your only right. its something most pundits keep saying though isn't it? "you need to win your home games". We need to start winning full stop

[St Marco]

Form wise (last 8 played) we are bottom. What is more worrying though is of those 8 games we let in 16 goals which means we had a goal difference of minus 10.... To put that into perspective even Doncaster were 4 goals clear of us.

[Mr X]

Form wise (last 8 played) we are bottom. What is more worrying though is of those 8 games we let in 16 goals which means we had a goal difference of minus 10.... To put that into perspective even Doncaster were 4 goals clear of us.

 

You would think things can only get better, lets feckin hope so

[Faz]

Form wise (last 8 played) we are bottom. What is more worrying though is of those 8 games we let in 16 goals which means we had a goal difference of minus 10.... To put that into perspective even Doncaster were 4 goals clear of us.

 

To put it into full perspective, form wise (last 17 played) we're 21st and safe. Funny old world, isn't it.

[St Marco]

To put it into full perspective, form wise (last 17 played) we're 21st and safe. Funny old world, isn't it.

 

unfourtunatly your theory counts only if the season stops right now. But that is not how form guides work is it. Especially with over half the season to go. If we maintain our form we will be bottom in 2 games. So to put that into perspective having a ratio of 1 win in 9 = relegation form. Meaning we have to start winning now or were be bottom soon and playing catch up.

[Faz]

unfourtunatly your theory counts only if the season stops right now. But that is not how form guides work is it. Especially with over half the season to go. If we maintain our form we will be bottom in 2 games. So to put that into perspective having a ratio of 1 win in 9 = relegation form. Meaning we have to start winning now or were be bottom soon and playing catch up.

 

Unfortunately your theory only works if we base the final table on any chosen period of 9 games. With over half the season to go, if everybody maintains their form over the last 17 games, we'll be safe. Result.

[yorkie]

If you can't win - home or away you will go down.

 

The problem with the whole home form situation is probably one of expectation. Not just the fans, but the players and Management...surely everyone expects.

 

The only positive I can see is we now have some triers out on the pitch. No matter how much you try - if you are not strong enough or good enough all that effort means nothing.

 

You can carry one or two in a team of professionals, but the reverse is not possible.

 

Personally I think the team shows a lot of potential, and they will be split up later. What's left will flounder in Division 1 with Lowe at the helm pulling the strings. Administration won't matter after that...the club will have lost everything. Talented players, loyal fans and status.

[mprobert]

..but only 3 CCC teams have won more away games this season!!

[St Landrew]

If you can't win - home or away you will go down.

 

The problem with the whole home form situation is probably one of expectation. Not just the fans, but the players and Management...surely everyone expects.

 

The only positive I can see is we now have some triers out on the pitch. No matter how much you try - if you are not strong enough or good enough all that effort means nothing.

 

You can carry one or two in a team of professionals, but the reverse is not possible.

 

Personally I think the team shows a lot of potential, and they will be split up later. What's left will flounder in Division 1 with Lowe at the helm pulling the strings. Administration won't matter after that...the club will have lost everything. Talented players, loyal fans and status.

 

And everything that this club is actually very good at - the academy.

[Mole]

Portvliet is the reason we've not done better at home. Don't get me wrong i think our first team squad is utter sh1te and nothing more than a run of the mill CCC youth team, but playing 1 man up front is such a negative approach it will give us no chance at all of staying up.

[St Marco]

Unfortunately your theory only works if we base the final table on any chosen period of 9 games. With over half the season to go, if everybody maintains their form over the last 17 games, we'll be safe. Result.

 

Unfortunatly again you dont quite grasp what "form guide" means do you?

For us to be "Safe" is to "assume" we will have won enough games from the last 17. A form guide looks as your games you have played and tells you how well you have done compared to everyone else. So if we lose on saturday which everyone seems to predict we will then that would mean 3 of our 4 months form guide says were in the bottom 3. From that you can sort of see a pattern there can't you?

So it has nothing to do with other people's results because i think we can safely "assume" that other teams will pick up points. Hence why we must concentrate on our own games and nobody else. If we start to win games were be ok! If we dont and rely on everyone else such as you suggest then were doomed.

[sperm_john]

we really need to sort it out, first step of strachans winning combination was to get our defence and home form sorted, bring back fortress st marys!

[southamptonfclegend]

If you don't win at least half your home games you go down simple as that

 

so if we won every away game and drew every home game we'd go down would we ?

[Mr X]

so if we won every away game and drew every home game we'd go down would we ?

 

smart arse, but yes I see your point I was wrong

[Faz]

Unfortunatly again you dont quite grasp what "form guide" means do you?

For us to be "Safe" is to "assume" we will have won enough games from the last 17. A form guide looks as your games you have played and tells you how well you have done compared to everyone else. So if we lose on saturday which everyone seems to predict we will then that would mean 3 of our 4 months form guide says were in the bottom 3. From that you can sort of see a pattern there can't you?

So it has nothing to do with other people's results because i think we can safely "assume" that other teams will pick up points. Hence why we must concentrate on our own games and nobody else. If we start to win games were be ok! If we dont and rely on everyone else such as you suggest then were doomed.

 

No my friend, it's you who hasn't quite grasped it. Based on a 17 game form guide we're safe. If you chose a two game period, Manchester utd can't possibly be champions. It all depends on how long a period you chose for your form guide. I understand that over the last 9 it doesn't look good, but the season is not based on the last 9, any more than it is games 5-13, or games 1-17. In football, as in most sports, you can't extrapolate from past performance and predict, with certainty, future outcomes. Otherwise we'd all be off to the bookies. But the mathematics of probability suggests the larger the sample, the closer to the actual result you will get.

[St Marco]

No my friend, it's you who hasn't quite grasped it. Based on a 17 game form guide we're safe. If you chose a two game period, Manchester utd can't possibly be champions. It all depends on how long a period you chose for your form guide. I understand that over the last 9 it doesn't look good, but the season is not based on the last 9, any more than it is games 5-13, or games 1-17. In football, as in most sports, you can't extrapolate from past performance and predict, with certainty, future outcomes. Otherwise we'd all be off to the bookies. But the mathematics of probability suggests the larger the sample, the closer to the actual result you will get.

 

Not quite sure how i can put it in simpler terms.

 

Based on 17 games we are 21st place. Based on current form we are headed for bottom place. For that to change means our results have to change. If we play the next 17 games and lose everyone of them i would say losing 27 games in a season = relegation. So it does not matter what you do with your last few games or your first few games it matters what you do in all of them. If i put this into how i do buisness terms i would have a projection of us finishing with 42 points. Compare that to table last year = relegation by over 12 points.

So it means if the form doesnt change the projection doesnt change. If the form changes then the projection changes. Which means it doesnt matter how many games you use as a sample if the form is poor. Using almost 4 months of data is more then enough to see our forecast graph. If you look at that graph that is on that statistics page they show you we have been in the bottom 3 for a total of 6 weeks in all.

[mprobert]

We could lose all our remaining games and still stay up .... probably not a good strategy though

[Sheff Saint]

We could lose all our remaining games and still stay up .... probably not a good strategy though

 

That means Watford would get at least three more points though this season and over take us.

 

Otherwise i like the logic!

[VectisSaint]

We could lose all our remaining games and still stay up .... probably not a good strategy though

Thankfully I think its clear to most people that you are talking ******. If we lost all our remaining games, that would mean that Watford would have beaten us and therefore gained at least 3 more points than us. It would also mean Forest picked up 6 points more than us. Getting the picture? You see, we don't play our remaining games against fictitious teams, but against other teams in the same division

 

All this business about form is crap anyway. The fact is we have played more home games than some of our opponents, such as Watford. Watford have won 37.5% of their home games, so extrapolation would suggest they will win at least 8 home matches, and draw about 5 or 6, which is a much healthier return than our form based on a large sample (9) currently would suggest.

 

The main point however is that whatever form we are in, we are the least likely of the teams around us to do something positive to change the situation. Watford have already sacked their manager, and new manager syndrome will have some short term impact there. Charlton will be making a move soon unless Mr Pardew has a collection of rabbits and hats hidden away, and Norwich have Leroy Lita baning in goals for fun. We on the other hand have Rupert Lowe with his experiment which he cannot possibly be seen to accepting has failed, and he will probably persevere until the bitter end, continuing to push the nice but hopelessly out of his depth Jan Poortvliet with a bunch of young kids, most of whom are on loan. Thats the problem.

 

Form is temporary, Lowe is permanent.

[Faz]

Not quite sure how i can put it in simpler terms.

 

Based on 17 games we are 21st place. Based on current form we are headed for bottom place. For that to change means our results have to change. If we play the next 17 games and lose everyone of them i would say losing 27 games in a season = relegation. So it does not matter what you do with your last few games or your first few games it matters what you do in all of them. If i put this into how i do buisness terms i would have a projection of us finishing with 42 points. Compare that to table last year = relegation by over 12 points.

So it means if the form doesnt change the projection doesnt change. If the form changes then the projection changes. Which means it doesnt matter how many games you use as a sample if the form is poor. Using almost 4 months of data is more then enough to see our forecast graph. If you look at that graph that is on that statistics page they show you we have been in the bottom 3 for a total of 6 weeks in all.

 

The difference between us is you say current form is 9 games. I say its 17. We can, in fact, both be right. Or both be wrong.

 

Good night.

[mprobert]

That means Watford would get at least three more points though this season and over take us.

 

Otherwise i like the logic!

 

I was just trying to use an extreme, yet illogical positive statement to illustrate the comedy in all the extreme and illogical negative comments on the forum. I appreciate my earlier point about only 3 teams having a better away record wasnt really up to the mark on the grounds that it was true. We rarely hear any reasoned discussion but admittedly I'm probably looking in the wrong place for that.

[Sheff Saint]

I was just trying to use an extreme, yet illogical positive statement to illustrate the comedy in all the extreme and illogical negative comments on the forum. I appreciate my earlier point about only 3 teams having a better away record wasnt really up to the mark on the grounds that it was true. We rarely hear any reasoned discussion but admittedly I'm probably looking in the wrong place for that.

 

I was just trying to be pedantic for comedy effect as well.

 

Sorry.

 

Sorry.

 

Soz.

[Victor]

The difference between us is you say current form is 9 games. I say its 17. We can, in fact, both be right. Or both be wrong.

 

Good night.

 

No, you are wrong. Our 'current form' can hardly include 4 games played in August with Svensson and Holmes in the side. Things have moved on a little in 3 months and they have changed but certainly not improved. Our current form IS relegation form and our final position, and whether or not our current form will actually lead to relegation, will depend on improving our home form, as it will also depend on how we do relative to the 3 teams below us.

 

This is the reality - quoting statistics is not, though it can be amusing.

[Chez]

If you can't win - home or away you will go down.

 

The problem with the whole home form situation is probably one of expectation. Not just the fans, but the players and Management...surely everyone expects.

 

The only positive I can see is we now have some triers out on the pitch. No matter how much you try - if you are not strong enough or good enough all that effort means nothing.

 

You can carry one or two in a team of professionals, but the reverse is not possible.

 

Personally I think the team shows a lot of potential, and they will be split up later. What's left will flounder in Division 1 with Lowe at the helm pulling the strings. Administration won't matter after that...the club will have lost everything. Talented players, loyal fans and status.

 

Yorkie you sure have got the case of the blues these days. Sadky though what you say will probably come true, but for now allow a little hope into your heart. Not sure if you saw the game on Saturday but we looked decent afetr we got our goal (pretty poor before mind). The side needs a slight tinker, Perry in (Lancashire out), Gobern out (Mills in with Skacel up to left wing perhaps), lose Pekhard, Smith and Robertson and try again with another set of lads on loan - and before you know it there might be soemthing to shout on for the second half of the season.

 

Not all is lost yet and at least they are going to go down fighting for the club and not their wages.