Required Run Rate

[Toussaint]

I was hoping for the autos this year, and I don't think that was an unrealistic aspiration following relegation. However, recent events have made me less than confident. Leeds and Burnley were promoted with 100 point last season. So, we have played 5 and have 6 points from a possible 18, a points rate 1.2 per game. If we are to achieve automatic promotion based on last years points requirement we need to secure 94 points from our "remaining" 41 games, therefore a points return of 2.3 per game is required, or putting it simply we need to win 32 of those games. I know there are many variables at play, and I realise its early days, but my concern is if we don't find a way, and very quickly, of winning games and stringing wins together we are going to be in the lottery of the playoffs, at best.

 

Maybe my hopes were over optimistic and the reality is we have to settle for a season of rebuilding and consolidation. I just hope we are not here for too long as it becomes a much steeper mountain to climb after 2 years.   I know some fans prefer the championship and I understand the reasons, but the longer a team is there the weaker they generally become.   

[Turkish]

no one will need 100 points for automatic promotion this season 

[Dr Who?]

I do not think there will be any outstanding teams in the championship this season. I think the quality is going to be much lower than the 3 last season. I expect Boro and Stoke to drop away, and Ipswich will probably be the best team at the end of the season. We will be anywhere from playoffs to 10th. I think that blue lot will be around mid table as well as they slowly progressively seem to get better every season since league 2.

[LGTL]

3 hours ago, Turkish said:

no one will need 100 points for automatic promotion this season 

Agree. It’s a much poorer league than last year, and even poorer again from the last time we were down here. 

[HarvSFC]

I'll provide a bit of hope with after 5 games last season Leeds had 8 points, two more than us currently and Burnley had 10 points, four more than us. West Brom were the leaders with 13 points from 5, like Middlesbrough now and they finished the season in 9th place.

Still a long way to go and we should be aiming for the autos.

[OneMrsWallace]

4 hours ago, Toussaint said:

I was hoping for the autos this year, and I don't think that was an unrealistic aspiration following relegation. However, recent events have made me less than confident. Leeds and Burnley were promoted with 100 point last season. So, we have played 5 and have 6 points from a possible 18, a points rate 1.2 per game. If we are to achieve automatic promotion based on last years points requirement we need to secure 94 points from our "remaining" 41 games, therefore a points return of 2.3 per game is required, or putting it simply we need to win 32 of those games. I know there are many variables at play, and I realise its early days, but my concern is if we don't find a way, and very quickly, of winning games and stringing wins together we are going to be in the lottery of the playoffs, at best.

 

Maybe my hopes were over optimistic and the reality is we have to settle for a season of rebuilding and consolidation. I just hope we are not here for too long as it becomes a much steeper mountain to climb after 2 years.   I know some fans prefer the championship and I understand the reasons, but the longer a team is there the weaker they generally become.   

Feels like so much depends on Still. I've seen a few comments saying he should go if we lose at Hull which seems premature - but - with it looking like we've signed some decent players, the pressure is definitely on him. I was underwhelmed by his appointment because I think you have more chance of promotion from this league with an experienced manager (Stats people welcome to prove me wrong). I'm sure he'd like more time to bed in the new players  and create a style (No sign of a style yet) but football is unforgiving and he just doesn't have that luxury given expectations should be play offs at least. So, I agree that wins are needed fast starting with Saturday. I would give him until Christmas as I think you can still make a play off charge from then provided you're mid table - but like you I'm not convinced it'll happen and I'm not convinced Still has the experience to take us forward. 

Edited Monday at 18:06 by OneMrsWallace

[Pamplemousse]

1 hour ago, HarvSFC said:

I'll provide a bit of hope with after 5 games last season Leeds had 8 points, two more than us currently and Burnley had 10 points, four more than us. West Brom were the leaders with 13 points from 5, like Middlesbrough now and they finished the season in 9th place.

Still a long way to go and we should be aiming for the autos.

Burnley also had an early season draw at home to their local rivals Blackburn if we want to draw a further comparison

[die Mannyschaft]

I'll go 68 points, or possibly 64,62 providing at lot of teams draw a lot of games to waste 2 points a game. 

Its not too late for 6th place but there needs to points on the board soon. Also goal difference at least plus 21.

[West end Saints]

2 hours ago, OneMrsWallace said:

Feels like so much depends on Still. I've seen a few comments saying he should go if we lose at Hull which seems premature - but - with it looking like we've signed some decent players, the pressure is definitely on him. I was underwhelmed by his appointment because I think you have more chance of promotion from this league with an experienced manager (Stats people welcome to prove me wrong). I'm sure he'd like more time to bed in the new players  and create a style (No sign of a style yet) but football is unforgiving and he just doesn't have that luxury given expectations should be play offs at least. So, I agree that wins are needed fast starting with Saturday. I would give him until Christmas as I think you can still make a play off charge from then provided you're mid table - but like you I'm not convinced it'll happen and I'm not convinced Still has the experience to take us forward. 

I checked a while ago during the days before Still was appointed - far by most successful managers in this league haven't managed here before.

[OneMrsWallace]

22 hours ago, West end Saints said:

I checked a while ago during the days before Still was appointed - far by most successful managers in this league haven't managed here before.

That's interesting for sure. I still question his lack of experience. I'm really hoping he can prove that isn't a problem. 

[Saint Fan CaM]

22 hours ago, West end Saints said:

I checked a while ago during the days before Still was appointed - far by most successful managers in this league haven't managed here before.

I think concern is that he’s inexperienced in an English football league at a time that the squad needs a massive overhaul. And the scars often mentioned are real in the sense that the style of play we’ve seen since the last Championship season has remained. Can’t underestimate the terrible state of affairs following relegation.