Forester

I agree that Tonda is not good enough. But just compare the side Martin had to manage. Bednarek, KWP, Stuart Armstrong, a fit and motivated Aribo and Adams. We totally lack that experience and nous.

I’m just rebouncing this….

I don’t claim he’s one of the best players to grace Saints. But let’s examine the last three matches: Birmingham, Stephens starts, we concede one goal Millwall, Stephens starts, we keep a clean sheet Boro, Stephens is rested/dropped, we concede four How is this consistent with your assertion “take him out of the side and you’ll see an improvement”?

Given the increasingly likely scenario that we will be in championship next season, but with reduced parachute payments, and also that the Downs loan is with an option, not obligation, to buy, I would be surprised if we don’t get a loan deal striker in. Club will want to be confident they are getting money back on Downs before paying a big sum I suspect, unless there are other sales being lined up that can generate good sums (which neither Aribo or Edozie I believe would).

McCarthy (unless loan signing is done) Jelert, Wood, THB, Welington Romeu, Bragg Fellows, Azaz, Scienza Stewart Romeu and Stewart need game time to get up to speed. If it works on the day both are in contention for Hull, if not Jander and Armstrong come back in

Nobody, including anyone being paid to play or manage, should be dismissing relegation as a possibility. That isn’t to say it is the most likely outcome, but a summary of reasons why this needs to be seen as a credible risk. Warning, read through the gaps in your fingers: - As has been pointed out, we have no wins in the last six, including defeats against two of the bottom three. And the lack of character on display especially at Oxford and Middlesbrough is a huge concern. So poor form and getting worse. - Having played 26 games, we have just eight wins. Additionally, four of those came in a five game spell when we had an “interim manager”, when elevated levels of energy are often a feature (numerous examples to cite, a recent one being O’Neill at Celtic). And so under a permanent manager, it is four wins in 21. We have 20 remaining fixture. - history suggests that 50 points is needed to avoid relegation. However this year Sheff Wednesday (even ignoring the deduction) look set to accumulate an unusually low total. And equally, it looks like the top six will accumulate less points than recent seasons. And so, therefore, it’s a mathematical likelihood that a higher total than 50 may be needed as points are more evenly distributed. - Ignoring Sheff Wed who are down, every one of the eight clubs trying to catch us are yet to play us a second time. You can spin that as “easier fixture list”, but given we aren’t currently on the drop zone the onus is on others to take points off us. The opportunity for that exists. Two of the sides (Sheff Utd and Norwich) are greatly improved since changing managers and coukd be argued to be in a false position based on table since October. - Most fans would say, and data backs this up, that Saints’ most effective players this season in terms of actual results gained are Armstrong, Azaz and Scienza. That isn’t to say they are in form now, but that when points have been picked up it’s often been down to them. Not one of them has been injured for more than a week. What if that changes? If one or two of them pick up hamstring injuries at some point they will probably miss eight of the 20 games. - the club have said that we should expect a quiet window. And so there is no communicated plan to strengthen the outfield squad. Others will spend and gamble. So we may need to win five and draw four or five of the remaining 20 games just to finish fourth bottom. None of this is scaremongering, it’s just being dispassionate and looking at the situation.

Just checking, but has anyone told you that 80% is greater than 20%?

Shocking and really worrying capitulation. Looked like a proper throw the towel in second half, nobody tracking runners, huge gaps behind wing backs, no desire to close players down. Those of us that have watched Saints for many years will remember when Burley left midway the season having been in charge two years and we would never have been looking down the table. Dodd and Gorman had a horrific spell in interim charge and it needed Pearson to come in and keep us up on last day. Given we are no wins in six and now looking like we lack desire, you look at the Pompey game coming up, and Norwich are greatly improved under Clements. We need to average a point per game from here on to stay up and right now that looks a big ask. Cannot believe I am typing this but have a look at the table and remind yourself that we have to play all the teams chasing us a second time.

McCarthy Jelert, THB, Wood, Welington Bragg, Jander Fellows, Robinson, Scienza Armstrong

If we take a step back from the emotion of yesterday and look at the stats they tell us fundamentally where the gap is between us and serious promotion prospects. Last season the top three were Leeds, Burnley and Sheff Utd, who were super unlucky not to go up and started with points deduction. We are exactly halfway through our season and have scored 37 goals and conceded 33. So on track for plus eight scoring 74 and conceding 66. The finishing goals for and against last season were: Leeds 95 scored, 30 against. Burnley 69 scored, 16 against Sheff Utd 63 scored, 36 against. So while many, me included, think we lack a big centre forward option having gambled on Stewart’s height, the reality (perhaps surprising) is that we are on course to out score both Burnley and Sheff Utd from last season, teams that accumulated massive points totals. However, at just the halfway mark we have ALREADY conceded more than both Leeds and Burnley did IN THE WHOLE SEASON, and are just three short of Sheff Utd full season total. So, what could we do? I think we have been hampered by both Roeslev and Jelert being injured starving us of natural right back, but we could still have played either Edwards, Stephens, Welington or THB as a right back in a back four. Admittedly as the two Danes return to fitness they are better choices. For me, Manning is excellent going forward but poor defensively and never stops a cross coming into our box meaning we face too many 50/50 situations in our penalty area. So Welington is for me the better choice. Back to basics of full backs who stop crosses coming in. Then we look at centre backs and goalkeeper. Our style of play suits Baz but his shots stopping is poor. So McCarthy gets the nod, or perhaps give Long a try as an experience championship keeper. Then there is no evidence, per above, that we are benefiting from three centre backs and so why not go to a back four and pick the best two. Probably Wood and THB. That said, Edwards hasn’t been given any run in the team. By shifting to a back three we have the chance to play Azaz as a number 10 in front of two other midfielders giving us the chance to play three of Armstrong, Scienza, Fellows and Stewart across the front line. There appears little point continuing to do what data tells you isn’t working. So change it.

If you read the post I replied to, it was saying to ignore medical staff advice. Who was manger is irrelevant. Seems common sense to me that Fellows would not be risked for 90 mins in his first start for a few weeks, three days before playing at Birmingham. I drove to Oxford and am as mad at the performance as everyone else. But why do people detach brains failing to see that Fellows was never going to last 90mims today coming back from a groin strain?

I give you Stewart three games in a week row at Derby as evidence, M’Lud

8 hour round trip so am as fed up as everyone else. However trying to be balanced: - 6 wins in 8 is excellent, title winning if replicated from start if season. So let’s keep our frustrations credible. - despite not playing well (see below), had the free kick have been an inch lower or even rebounded off bar with more pace on ball and Armstrong taken his penalty we would have been two nil up at halftime. And then their goal looked handball from our angle but haven’t seen slow motion replay. If just one of those three moments happens in our favour we don’t lose. - however definitely some key aspects that need focus from Eckert and Spors. That is the second time we have lost the third game in a three game week away. I think we need to balance the natural desire to make minimal changes to a winning team with the need for some fresh legs in the three game week. Bragg, Romeu or Charles (when fit) should be utilised, and perhaps a formation change when digging in that sees us have a three man central midfield not two. - we have a choice in goal right now between Baz being excellent on floor for our chosen style of play, but clearly not helping us defensively versus McCarthy who in my opinion is unquestionably better in the air and stopping shots but will hamper our playing out from back. Not great. - having leaned the lessons of relying on Stewart fitness and Downs ability, both being proven mistakes, we need to sign a tall strong target man in January. It’s natural that at certain times in games you are under the pump and need sometimes an outlet where you can play long, get up the field and a striker can hold the ball up. We can’t do that at present and it really costs us.

Old fashioned and unconventional opinion perhaps. But having had prior experience of four wins from four games, perhaps in assessing his capabilities to be a permanent boss we will learn more from how he reacts to this defeat than we have in the first four games? If he goes and collects six points from the Brum and WBA games, arguably in the long run he is a better appointment to make than having known nothing but (very short term) success?

As many others have said, it’s only three games and there is every sense in leaving a decision until after Millwall. But I have been surprised how impressive the uplift is. So far he seems to have two major strengths which aren’t to be under estimated: - he seems capable of motivating and galvanising the dressing room - he has figured out a system and pattern of play that suits the players available. Back three rather than a back five way of playing wing backs, quick transition after breaking the press, and movement and ball on the floor upfront.