SaintBobby

I'm not doubting that we deserve our overall league position. After 36+ games, the table doesn't lie. I think there are two meanings of "deserve" in football terms. Firstly, there's when you've been literally robbed by bad decisions - not been given a legitimate penalty or had a goal ruled out that clearly went over the line or conceded a goal that was clearly offside etc. That wasn't the case on Saturday. Both penalties were legitimate. In that narrow definition, the result was "fair". A second, alternative definition is that you are the poorer team on the balance of play, carve out very few clear cut chances etc, but still go on to secure a win. The win at Leeds fits into this category pretty clearly (notwithstanding the claim for a penalty for a Fonte handball). The result is "legitimate" but not "deserved". I'd say the win on Saturday fits into this category. Despite chasing the game, I think we only managed one shot on target in the second half until we got given a penalty. As I said, both penalties were entirely legitimate but also a bit "lucky" (in that it would have been pretty easy for the ref to have given neither of them, especially away from home in the dying minutes). Fair play to the ref for that, but I'd have been wholly unsurprised (although gutted) if we had been given neither penalty or only one of them. I suppose it's a question of "if we played like that, against these opponents for 100 games, how many games would we win, lose and draw?". The Millwall performance would typically result in a defeat IMHO. The Leeds performance even more so. My general sense amongst Saints fans leaving the game was very much a "how the feck did we win that one?" type attitude. Of course, over a season (a) these things even out and (b) it's the mark of a great team to make their opportunities count disproportionately. Saints score pretty high on (b) this season.

We definitely didn't deserve 3 points at Millwall yesterday. I put that as a +3

I don't have the stats to hand, but I would suspect that successful, attacking teams get flagged for offside measurably more often than struggling teams. if so, this is rarely used to suggest that the officials favour the underdogs.

Over the course of a season, every team is going to lose games they shouldn't; lose games they don't deserve to and win games undeservedly and beyond expectation. You can't just isolate one or two results and apply these to the final reckoning as if these results are somehow more definitive or more influential than the other 44. Saints have performed enormously beyond expectations. But that simply doesn't mean you can expect us to win every game in which we started as favourites. Man Utd lost at home to Blackburn 3-2. A staggering result. But any Man Utd fan who bleats about how they might not win the league because of this is not been objective.

Turkish isn't even worth ignoring. Sad little specimen.

This might help: http://www.picupine.com/bac4a04x#whufc

Back from the game and a few sherberts. I was never in doubt about the 2nd penalty, had a great view of it from where I was...the upper tier towards the corner flag. Good spot from the ref who had a much worse view. Slightly ropey performance overall, but not shocking by any means. Chaplow was very poor first half. I'm a big fan of his, but he's not one of those players who is much good at 80% (whereas, say, Lallana and Lambert can be). He was 80% at best and that just meant he didn't have the bite that we need from him. De Ridder really brought something to us in the first 15 mins of the 2nd half but then we seemed to forget how to use him (and/or Millwall got wise to him). Lambert's composure was amazing. Guly was pretty good. Busy and involved. But I was never quite sure what he was usefully doing in an attacking sense. Morgan Schneiderlin was nearly faultless. An exceptional midfielder. We missed Tadanari Lee. Still in a state of sheer joy and relief. With five mins to go, it looked like we were potentially going to slip to, effectively, third place. Must be a smack in the face to West Ham and Reading that we dug that out. Huge 3 points. Bloody marvellous. P.S. we are now mathematically certain to finish above 17th...what's your new prediction, Dalek? 12th? 15th?

Thanks for digging up an old thread. It's fascinating to re-read it. I didn't comment at the time, but probably would have said something embarrassing. It does show how we fans can get things badly, badly wrong. I think those people complaining about "why has this been dug up...times have changed etc etc" are desperate beyond belief and well worth laughing at.

Boro away

ML and NC were necessary conditions - without them, we probably wouldn't have survived at all. But things could have gone a lot less well even with the buyout and strong overall management. I'd give some considerable credit to Adkins and a fair sprinkling to Pardew. The players have done a great job and our signings have been incredibly astute. None of Fonte, Hoovield, Fox, Chaplow or various others made me punch the air when we signed them, but all have enormously exceeded expectations. It's hard to think of a bad signing really. I'm mildly pro-Guly but wonder if he gets so much flak not for being black but because he's one of very few not to have performed enormously beyond what was initially anticipated.

Saints are favourties to go up as champions following today's results http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/winner

Well, like having an extra 1/2 a point really. But, yep, may be crucially.

Weird substitution.....hope that's not an injury to Rickie and is just to rest him with the game (probably) won...

Get in!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I love this thread. It has set the tone. But here's a request for help. I think there is now a conclusive case that Birch is acting on his own money to keep the skates alive. I think this needs underlining. I am therefore drafting a letter to the FSA in these terms, but am uncertain that thus is the right route?

Very frustrating night. We shld have been out of sight after 30 minutes. Then having finally got the breakthrough, we shld have held on. Annoying. Not a bad display overall, but a disappointing result.

You what? Are we supposed to aim for 7 points from the next two games?

B@llocks

I def want a Cardiff win....they are very unlikley to catch us.

Sorry...odds will have tightened, but it was 4/1 on betfair when I posted.

No chance of an England call up for Rickie. Sadly.

Pretty much our worst performance of the season, yet you give the starting XI an average score of nearly 7 out of 10????

Where are Corp Ho and pfc123 to explain why everything is tickety-boo? Or is Corp PMSLing?

Seems a fair plan to me, overall. I'm a STH, so unaffected (other than when I want to secure extra seats next to our block of three). But, yep, overall I'd say this is a good system, even if it doesn't suit everyone.

I think you may be right. They certainly shouldn't be treated as "nailed on". The 4/1 odds on West Ham NOT being promoted is quite attractive, I'd say. I'd put there promotion chances as pretty good, but not much higher than 60% or so.