SaintBobby

I'm in the "want to win the league, not just get promoted" camp. But, a draw would keep us in pole position. Given our GD, we'd only need to match Reading over the last three games and I think we would. So, even though I think we are slight favourites to win, I'd take a draw now.

I think his point was that if you lost tonmight, you'd be 9 points adrift with 12 left to pay for. I agree relegation is now a near certainty for Portsmouth, but suspect that is the least of your problems. You're probably 90% to be relegated, but also about 70% to cease to exist by the start of next season.

The late equaliser was annoying. Very annoying. But it looks like being purely ceremonial. They are near certs for relegation (and probably won't survive into next season IMHO) and we'll very probably go up. I almost don't begrudge them it now. A bit like a dying man's last wish...

Win = we're almost certainly up, and almost certainly as champions Draw = we're almost certainly up, probably as champions, but a bit 60-40ish on that issue Lose = we're still probably going up (70%+ chance) but most likely as runners-up (maybe a 30% chance of being champions) HTH

In my view, the GD is now nailed on. I just can't see how we end up equal on points with West Ham, but behind on goal difference. (if we lose all our remaining games and West Ham win all their games, they might catch our GD - but at that point, our problem is points not goal difference!) As an extra buffer, we have many more goals scored. So even if we ended up on the same points and the same GD as West Ham (a 10,000,000/1 shot), we'd still almost certainly beat them on goals scored. So, the chance that we will end up on the same points as West Ham, but end up one place behind them is something like 10,000,000,000/1. These odds are so small as to be disregarded. It is measurably more likely that some ghastly incident or terrorist attack on St. Mary's will derail us than to even consider this mathematical near-impossibility. Back in the real world: 1. 6 more points (88 in total) guarantees promotion. For each point West Ham drop in their next four games, this falls by a point. 2. To win the division, we need to "keep pace" with Reading. With the slight advantage that we have 3 points and they have a game in hand. (and also that they have to play us at home) Most likely, Saints are nearly nailed on to get an auto-slot, with Friday's game being nearly a title-decider. (but a draw measurably favouring Saints' chances and a Southampton loss being more recoverable by Saints than a Royals loss would be recoverable by Reading). Even if we lost all of our remaining games, I'd put our chances of promotion at nearly 50%.

Amazing how thoughts and moods can change. I couldn't bear to get involved in the post-skate analysis, that last gasp equaliser was just too horrid. But for all the doubters, the bookies odds are now as follows: Saints are a general 1/20 to be promoted (by any means - including play-offs) and a general 4/7 to win the Championship. So, if you think we ain't going to go up (or just wish to hedge), you can make 20 times your stake within a month. A £100 bet makes you £2,000 if we don't go up. If you think Reading are likely to win the title, you can get them at a general 6/4. A £100 bet makes you a £150 profit.

Did you watch either game? If not, on what are you basing your opinion? I'd say we were 4/10 v Blackpool and 5.5/10 v Portsmouth. (i.e. a slightly poor average) But, heck, what do I know?

Did you watch the game? West Ham should have had at least one and possibly two other penalties. Why do you imply any worry about "dodgy decisions"? It was an absolute stonewall penalty. I appreciate that you are unable to actually watch much football given you're away from the UK. But I'm unclear why you seem to be so determined to prove that ignorance is no barrier to expressing an opinion.

Those sentences don't really go together. If you think West Ham and Reading are about to drop points, we'd still be in very good shape with two draws. And pretty good shape with just one draw.

If you really think Saints will lose or draw, you would be doing your favoured charity a bigger favour by betting that way and giving them the winnings. Saints are about 1/2 to win - so you can approximately treble your stake if they fail to win.

We're still 1/2 to win the division and about 1/10 to be promoted. Btw, you can't bet on us "finishing third".

Have emailed you.

The latest issue of FFT has another of those interminable lists. They've done these things to death. The top 100 matches, the top 100 upsets, the top 100 types of boot polish etc etc Well, this issue they have the top 50 players in the Football League. Peter Wittingham wins it. Lallana is no. 2. Rickie is no. 3. The other Saints are Sharp at 12 and Guly at 27. Shows how daft these lists are really.... (Morgan, Kelvin and Fonte are all in top 50 for my money. Not so sure Billy or Guly are). But then these list things are only designed to generate debate/discussion/outrage, so I've fallen right into their trap....

Agree. I think he's the nuts. I'm just amazed that Burnley would rather get £3m in July than £6m in the previous window. Hooper might just be a "not selling" issue. JRod isn't.

Great signing if we go up (and assuming we lose Connolly and/or Barnard). I think they wanted £6m for him last time out? He'll go for about half that now. Sharp was turned down at £3m, but we got him for £1.8m a few months later. You wonder who runs the finances of football clubs like Doncaster and Burnley. It's not just the skates who are innumerate and insane.

You've got to hand it to them. A brilliantly planned military operation. Years of preparation. But it all goes tits up because a skate in a suit decides to divulge the entire scheme to a guy in a Bournemouth pub carrying a Saints Megastore carrier bag. I guess that was the one random eventuality they didn't quite count on, hey? Rumbled again.

In otehr news, I hear Alan Pardew has been sacked http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulfletcher/2010/08/pardew_sacking_at_saints_raise.html

If "literally hundreds" means about 360 people, then they've raised just enough money to pay Tal Ben Haim's salary for one week. MMMMMMMMMMMMMMWWWWWWHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Am I in a minority in finding the secrecy over injuries a bit OTT? Yes, I can see that full and immediate disclosure isn't always in the best interests of the club. I'm a tad sceptical though about how much it really flusters the opposition to not know whether Lee, Lambert etc is injured or not. It does seem strange to me that the BBC are happy to report the news as fact on their website http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/17584386 whilst there is still zero confirmation of anything on the OS. If a player is 50-50, you might want to be circums[pect about what you state in public. If a player is undergoing surgery and is out for several months, I don't see the poitn in obfuscating. Very pleased overall with how Saints are doing both on and off the field at the moment, but comms with fans/supporters/STHs does seem to be pretty dreadful (and unnecessarily so)

I questioned this too. If these are loans with a 100% obligation to buy then they are actually, to all intents and purposes, transfers. And they are outside of the transfer window - so that would be a breach of the rules. I can just about see there could be an option to buy - but surely not a promise to?

Sorry to hear this sad news. RIP.

Blimey, what a total mess. I sure hope next season is better than this shambles. (but I'm usually sceptical about some new flashy "database solution"...it seems we need some basic human competence)

That's not really a precedent. If I recall, the relevant info about Swindon only came to light after the play-off final. It wasn't as if - many weeks before the play-offs - the authorities were umming and erring about what to do. The issue this time is whether a "double dip" administration without the first CVA being honoured counts as a more substantial penalty than simply drifting into admin for a second time. The situation isn't directly covered by the League's rules (in the same way that the Southampton Leisure Holdings/Southampton FC situation was not directly covered). But I'm struggling to see what might happen between now and the end of the season to shed more light on this anomaly. The facts are basically in, but the League's judgment is not.

I'd definitely take it. I care much more about promotion and winning the division than about beating Portsmouth. In anything approaching reality though, the two are positively not negatively correlated. So, I'm not quite sure which fairy godmother I "make the deal with"

Not so sure about this. I think we're now beyond the "points deadline". So, if a team now gets a points deduction, then unless its impact is meaningful this season (eg. The deduction gets them relegated), it will be carried over to next season anyway (as happened to us in our relegation from the Championship) I think the league needs some certainty as well. If, for example, a team survives relegation by two or three points at the end of the season, it's bad for the integrity of the competition for further points to be deducted in May or June. I don't want the norm to be that the league finishes in April/May, but who ends up where in the league is determined in committee meetings or court hearings in June and July.