SaintBobby

That's a pretty weird answer. I'd say it's delusional to say winning the football league doesn't get you a trophy. Obviously, today, I'd rather be in Swansea or Norwich's position than QPR's. But QPR aren't doing worse because they won the league. You don't start with a five or ten point handicap for going up in first place. So, last May, I'd prefer to have been QPR. If we do win the league, I won't forget it by August. I wish we'd won League One rather than Brighton. I can live with the fact that we came 2nd, sure. But the extra silverware would have been most welcome. Football isn't all about where you're going tomorrow, some of it is about winning stuff today. I find it really bizarre that anyone can be completely indifferent between us finishing 1st and 2nd. I'd have found it equally odd if back in 2003, Saints fans had said "I don't care if we beat Arsenal in the FA cup final or not. We've qualified for the UEFA Cup either way and in a few years time most people won't remember who won it anyway".

Do you really think there's no trade off? E.g. what about 1. 95% chance of promotion and 60% chance of going up as champions or 2. 94.99999999999% chance of promotion and 80% chance of going up as champions? Surely, you prefer option 2? I'd think most folk agree there's a trade off...it's just a question of what this trade off is.

Watching MOTD last night, they said one of the Arsenal defenders got injured in the warm up and was replaced by another without having to make a substitution. I don;t know if you're limited to using your named subs in such an instance though.

Don't wholly agree. As I've said somewhere else on one of these discussions, there's a trade off. Yes, winning the league is a "bonus" whereas promotion is the main aim. But which would you hypothetically prefer: 1. 95% chance of promotion and a 60% chance of winning the division or 2. 94% chance of promotion and an 80% chance of winning the division? I'd prefer the 2nd, even though it shaves a bit of our chances of going up.

Let's hope they don't feel any need to make a bid for Lambert then! If we do go up, I think there are about 12 teams who could get relegated from the PL next year. Newcastle aren't one of them, but WBA are.

I'd approve of that...but it would probably be illegal (not just on health and safety grounds but it would basically amount to imprisonment!)

Both. It's not the absolute be all and end all of football to be in the Premiership. Glory matters, not just financial considerations. Being able to have "Football League Champions 2012" on our CV would be fantastic.

Pretty graceless stuff from Saunders. As it happens, I agree it wasn't a corner for the first goal though.

Agree with the sentiment here entirely. Winning the league does matter. Quite a lot. That said, I can imagine a West Ham victory over Reading perhaps being preferable to a draw if we really want to aim for top spot.

It is hilarious and a salutory lesson for those who have made such utter fools of themselves. Ok, we're not promoted yet, but we are about 1/20 with the bookmakers. A fall to third place is still possible - but not likely. And falling below 3rd seems near impossible. The really amusing thing is not just the disastrous failure of the pessimists to predict the future but the astonishing, arrogant certainty with which they make their predictions. Congrats for digging the thread up. It takes all the right people down a peg or two. And is a handy guide on "who not to listen to" in future. These are NOT people you should ever take any betting advice from (unless you want to bet on the exact opposite of what they predict, which would probably net you a very tidy profit)

You've been very specific. I just think it's nuts to assume there is any plausible scenario in which we end up level on points with West Ham and/or Reading but falling behind them owing to goal difference. It really is a 1,000,000 to 1 chance or even wilder. The truth is that our chance of being promoted if we get 91 points is 100%. If we get 90 points, it's 99.9999999999999999999999% The truth is that our chance of winning the league if we get 95 points is 100%. If we get 94 points, it's 99.99999999999999999999% I just don't think it's worth worrying about that 0.000000000000000000001 % chance. You're best to just round down the points we need (to 94 and 90) rather than worry about being utterly certain to the twentieth decimal point.

Yep, that works. If West Ham lose their next three fixtures and we beat Blackpool, then we are effectively promoted if we beat Portsmouth (treating our GD as uncatchable). This seems to me a very unlikely state of affairs though - and might not be a state of affairs I even want to happen (I'm not sure I want Reading beating West Ham at the moment!)

Definitely agree that promotion is the top priority and winning the Championship is a bonus, but - by way of illustration - which scenario would you rather have: 1. Saints 95% certain of promotion and 60% sure of winning the championship or 2. Saints 94% certain of promotion and 85% sure of winning the championship I'd take the (small) extra risk and choose no.2 - even though we're less likely to be promoted.

Damn you...you had me toasting almost certain promotion there for a moment ;-)

As pointed out on another thread, your maths are out here I think. If West Ham lose their next two, they can still get 87 points, meaning we'd need 9 or 10 more points (depending on whether you treat our GD as uncatchable) Am I right?

Is that right? If West Ham lose their next two games, they could still get to a total of 87 points, no? Meaning we'd need 9 more (if you count our GD as uncatchable) or 10 more if you don't.

If West Ham lose to Posh, I think I'd want them to go on to beat Reading. Yes, it would shave a tiny fraction off our chances of getting promoted, but it would substantially boost our chances of going up as champions. There's some sort of acceptable trade-off here in % terms, but I'm not sure what it is....

Well, in those circumstances, not all things are equal. I've left early twice in about 250 home games. Once because the trains back to London were insanely f**ked on the day and I absolutely had to be back by 8pm for family reasons. Once because I had to make a flight or something. But I'm pretty sure the overwhelming majority are just "beating the traffic." Either that or Saints fans have a jaw-droppingly disproportionate number of very sick relatives...

Well, in theory, there could be an on-the-pitch punch up at the Pompey game and both teams get docked 2 points. The chances are tiny, but if we're going to include the infintesimallly microscopic chance of our GD being overhauled, we might as well include all such off-the-scale improbabilities. As a matter of interest, would you have said going into the Walsall game on the final game of last season that we needed a draw to guarantee going up? (technically we did, because if we'd lost and Huddersfield had won 14-0 or something mental, we'd have slipped to third). Once you start factoring in chances that have a smaller chance than us all dying in an all-out thermonuclear war before the end of the season, I wonder how practical and useful the calculations really are? (Don't get me wrong, I love these nerdy mathematical threads, just think you've made a way too cautious assumption in your reasoning)

Is it safe to build in to the equation that we will finish with a superior goal difference to both West Ham and Reading? It's not a mathematical certainty of course, but seems pretty much nailed on. If we're going to consider circumstances in which we're caught on Goal Difference, we may as well consider circumstances where we get some strange points deduction for some highly obscure reason. So, I'd say that 16 more points guarantees us the Championship and 13 more points guarantees us promotion - not 17 and 14 as you have it here.

You're staying behind to cheer the team off the pitch and to will them on for every last second. To try and cheer Billy onto a hatrick etc. Sure, if you just hear your wife's given birth or a relative has been rushed to hospital, leave. But f**king off ten minutes early in order to save yourself 15-20 minutes isn't being as good a fan as cheering the team on to the very end and saluting them off the park. I can't believe that's even in doubt.

I disagree. All things being equal, you ARE a better fan if you stay to the end. All things might not be equal, of course....

Gees. I'd forgotten how badly Birmingham had faded over the last ten games.

Sharp for me. I didn't think Lallana was at his best today. Involved, but a lot of the stuff he tried didn't quite come off for me. Honourable mention to Schneiderlin, who always seems to justify being in the "top 3" performances these days, even if he's a rare choice for MOTM.

I'm kind of treating Blackpool as a "bonus game". It's probably our toughest remaining fixture and I'd take a point right now, given our league position.