SaintBobby

Am I right to assume that the Liebherr-Cortese five year plan was two seasons to get out of League One and then three seasons to get promoted from the Championship? Are we merely supposed to be in the PL at the end of the five years? Or is the plan that we're "established" in the PL by then? If the former, we're on schedule. If the latter, we're probably behind.

I'm happy to take that if you can confirm. Although to be honest, you'd be better just to back against Saints being promoted on betfair - where you can still gets odds of 2/1. (e.g. your ten quid stake would yield a £20 return from betfair, but only a £10 return from me) This does leave you exposed to Saints getting promoted via the play-offs, but that's easy to hedge. If Saints do get to the play-offs, but three or four quid on us to win them (at likely odds of 5/2) Alternatively, I'll happily take your tenner bet, because I can transform it into a guaranteed profit of at least £5 with three clicks of a mouse (essentially just by following the two steps I recommend above)

Alpine, I think the "outrage" (or more usually "annoyance") is not so much that you tend to be negative but that: (a). as you've conceded, your negativity often isn't really within the realm of statistical reality (or even internal consistency) (b). there is no instance - none at all that I am aware of - of you ever being even marginally optimistic side on anything Saints-related at all. For example, not a single match thread ever in which we go a goal down and you say "plenty of time to go, we should be able to pull this back". No analysis thread ever in which you say "actually, I think Brighton/Bournemouth/Huddersfield are looking a bit shaky as we reach the run in." That's pretty amazing given the many thousands of posts you've racked up. Even if you can cite a couple of counter-examples, they will amount to an absolutely tiny proportion of your colossal number of overall posts. ©. in any walk of life, people prefer to be surrounded by optimists (or at least realists) rather than relentless pessimists. Probably particularly true of football fans. When the relentless pessimist's incessant doom-saying is clearly based on a failure to maintain any consistent grip on likely or probable outcomes, people start to find the person's presence grating, irritating, annoying and possible even worry for the person's mental health.

You're right - 75% for automatic is about my shout. The markets have us at 4/11 for promotion by any means (i.e. about 75% - but that includes maybe a 7-10% of promotion via the playoffs?). And therefore 11/4 for us not going up at all. I can get slightly better odds from the markets than I can from you, I'm afraid. That's why I said if anyone wildly disagrees with my percentages, I'd take a wager. If you don't disagree with them wildly, I may get better odds from betfair.

No, don't agree. Although the "champions" league is misnamed, the fairest way to decide the best teams is League position. I would merge the Champs Lge and the Europa Lge, however.

And that was the ref's first ever league game? Welcome to the Football League....

Aren't they doing a fair job of scrapping hard for their lives and possibly engineering a great escape from relegation? 3-0 to Saints though IMHO

Lallana (n) - naturally skillful midfield maestro, adept at securing promotions for underperforming team Llama (n) - a South American camelid, widely used as a pack and meat animal by Andean cultures since pre-hispanic times HTH

Huge expectations mixed with several years of struggle and - so far this season - slightly disappointing results, throw in a pinch of people realising how vital promotion is this year and you have a nervy home crowd. This is made even worse by being at the "business end" of the season. (Maybe we always start the season so badly because we think of August and September as the "leisure end" of the season?)

Ahhhh, bless....give him a break, suewhistle. The first step to overcoming a problem is admitting you have one. And in his last few posts on here, Alpine takes the first few steps towards admitting he has a problem. I, for one, am rooting for him.

Start with Schneiderlin and Barnard for sure. Jaidi was immense today, but assuming he needs resting soon. I thought Hammond was pretty good today, so I'd drop Chaplow.

Lol. I'd say equating odds of 55% with 0% counts as more than a "bit" of an overreaction. In fact, I'd say it was an utterly monumental over-reaction... But as long as you admit you are prone to these extreme, wild, colossal and - frankly - innumerate overreactions while Saints games are in progress, then at least people can discount the opinions you are expressing accordingly.....

The impartial analysis seems pretty close to my percentage predictions - although I'm not sure you can bet on winning the play-offs or losing the play-offs just yet.

You must have made massive bets with the bookies then. Something which you think is 9/1 is only available at 2/1. You must be laying off a fortune on those odds. You think promotion is evens, but the market odds are between 1/2 and 1/4....again, you must be laying off a fortune. I'm happy to exchange contact details - and even deposit the money now. At 9/1 on being champions, I'd like to bet a sizeable amount (and it's me taking the big risk here - my stake would only be a tenth of my possible winnings)

Well, I guess it's your opinion that something which will "no way" happen actually has a 55% chance of happening..... Just to be clear, I don't have a major issue with people who "express a different opinion" to the conventional norms of mathematics and logic....

So when you say, there's "no way" we'll get automatic promotion or win the play-offs, what you actually mean is that it's 55% likely that we, in fact, will..... And if you think Saints are 9/1 to win the league, how much of a bet will you take at these odds? (or even odds of 8/1 or 7/1 or 6/1 or 5/1 or 4/1)?

Ooops...make that Saints to be champions 32% Saints to be runners-up 43% Saints to win play-offs 9% Saints to lose in play-offs 15% Saints to fail to make top 6 1% See...I can't even add up to 100%...surely the doomsayers want to place a bet with me????

Have just read the 2nd half thread on here. And have picked myself off the floor and fear my sides have split....LOL. Amongst a string of classics was "Adkins being found out" (he probably had his best tactical game since becoming Saints manager) and "No way can we get automatic promotion or wint eh play-offs now". If you don't think we'll be promoted, you can treble your money by placing a bet now. Also, don't agree that we need to beat Bournemouth. Assuming a defeat at Dean Court, we'd be a hypothetical 9 points behind them having played 3 less games. Not ideal by any means - but there are plenty of scenarios in which we lose to them but still get promoted automatically. However, if we do beat Bournemouth, we're a hypothetical 3 points behind them with 3 games in hand - that would make us something like 1/5 or 1/6 to get promoted. A win at their place and - in statistical terms - promotion starts to get close to "nailed on". A defeat and it's obviously tougher, but still open. The odds on us winning the division (a general 2/1) are - I'm guessing - about the same as the odds of us beating Brighton away. There's a reason for that - if we beat Brighton, we'll probably win the league. If we don't, we'll most likely end up second. My present percentage predictions are: Saints to be champions 30% Saints to be runners-up 40% Saints to win play-offs 7% Saints to lose in play-offs 12% Saints to fail to make top 6 1% If anyone disagrees wildly with these figures (for example, someone who claims there is "no way we will get automatic promotion or win the play-offs"), I'd be delighted to arrange a private wager. If those who disagree wildly won't place a private wager on outcomes that they portray as the sort of racing certainty that any sensible person would be willing to put their house on, can they please, please, please just shut the f**k up for a while? Here ends the lesson.

Just back from St Marys. A game of three thirds really. We were good for the first 30 mins We were poor, verging on dire, for the next 30 mins We were really excellent for the last 30 mins Can we start with Barnard from now on please? He terrorises defenders superbly. Credit to Schneiderlin too - technical quality and the ability to boss midfield. Huge kudos to Adkins for making the right substitutions at the right time. The bookmakers have League One as effectively a two horse race now - Brighton at around 4/7 and Saints at around 2/1. Odds on anyone else wining the division are at least 14/1 and drifting rapidly. For promotion by any means, Brighton are about 1/5 and Saints about 1/2. But our odds are tightening fast, with some major bookies having suspended them this evening and some others (Skybet) reopening at 1/4. All other teams are 2/1 or longer to be promoted.

I quite like both Bournemouth and Brighton. Generally want southern clubs to climb the divisions - excluding Portsmouth, of course. When I saw the 2-2 draw with Brighton last season, I reckoned they could be serious challengers this time. Credit to Bournemouth particularly though for performing so enormously above expectations in League One, especially since losing their manager. Sadly, I think they've probably peaked now and are unlikely to go up. But even finishing in the top ten would be an impressive season for them. The fact that Bournemouth are above us does show that Saints have rather under-performed this term, but there's plenty of time to turn this round and I'm confident we will.

Brighton will probably win the division, but not in the bag at all. However, they'd have to screw up a lot to fail to get automatic promotion. Saints are likely to come second, and if not, will be a good shout for the play offs. Still have a modest (15-20%?) chance of first. I think I'd tip Charlton to be the third team - but at that stage, it's a lottery.

See other thread (the absurd one about fixture pile up)....assume you've finally put your money where your mouth is? If not, please just shut the f up....

For any remotely major sporting event (and, yes, League One counts), the amount of optimistic fan money is swiftly matched by professional gamblers - or canny amateurs - swooping on odds that are deemed attractive. In these relatively liquid markets, the odds very swiftly move back into credible balance. For example, if those who you characterise as "Walter Mitty" Saints fans have been piling on money on Saints to win the League, this would lead to the odds on Brighton drifting out to unrealistically attractive levels and "neutral"/"objective" gamblers snapping these up. A quick look at Betfair's odds on the League One title show that over £500,000 has been staked on the winner (and that's just on this one website). Saints are at 3.45 to win the title (i.e. a £10 stake yields £44.50) and Brighton are 1.75 (i.e. a £10 stake yields £17.50). As others have said, this equates to the markets saying Brighton have about a 50% of winning the title and Saints about 25%. In terms of achieving promotion by any means, Brighton are 1.27 and Saints are 1.56. Saints price has come in a bit since Saturday - that is to say that since the Rochdale game was abandoned (and given other results went broadly our way), the markets believe Southampton have a slightly greater chance of promotion than this time last week. Put another way, amongst the thousands and thousands of people betting upon League One - no one seems to take your "fixture pile up problem" remotely seriously. If you're right and everyone else is wrong, you can clean up, of course. You think Brighton are nailed on certainties to win the title? Great, you can nearly double your money by backing them at 1.75. Backing what you consider to be a certain outcome at about evens is a no brainer. Over £80,000 has been staked on Betfair this season on Brighton winning the title - not a single penny from a single punter at any stage this season has been bet at odds shorter than 1.7. In layman's terms, this means no one - absolutely no one at all - has ever rated Brighton's chances of winning the title at greater than 60%. Similarly, if you think Southampton will fail to be promoted this season, you can "lay" odds on Saints. The markets think Saints have a 2 in 3 chance of going up. If you think that's over-stated, you can clean up here too. It's literally free money.... Even if you're not a betting man, what these odds show is that you're wrong to consider that the typical levels of "optimism" shown on here are just the rantings of a delusional few Saints fans. A position of "Saints to win the title" is a c.25% shot and "Saints to get promoted is a c. 65% shot" is the prevailing view of many thousands of people who have staked many millions of pounds on the outcome. You might yet prove to be right in your gloomy predictions of course, but it's you who is enormously and dramatically out-of-step with the norm.

I'm hardly worried about it at all. We may pick up injuries, but so will the teams we're playing and they have smaller squads. We comfortably have enough in the tank to get 2nd and if we beat Brighton away, we'll probably win the league. Brighton have the same fixture pile-up as us, I think, and a thinenr playing staff to deal with it.

I think we're going to come 2nd. But play-off final is a real chance. If you have a wedding, funeral or 40th birthday planned, cancel them. See you at Old Trafford for the penalty shoot out....