hypochondriac

How likely is that? If he ends up dying he will just be replaced by a kgb crony equally ruthless and hard nosed to keep his place at the top.

It's not just America though. Putin doesn't have the problem of having to sell to a domestic audience the loss of pote tially thousands of people over a country that most people don't care about. The west does have that problem and I can envisage significant opposition and calls for compromise to prevent war on that scale. Besides, it's most likely going to be an incremental thing anyway like I said earlier. Russia will just wait for things to die down and a bit and then keep going.

I don't think it's a small thing. I still don't think it's a reasoning that the American public will accept. I don't even think it's one we will accept here, particularly if we get mass cyber attacks or similar that shut off communications.

Not really the same thing is it. The American public won't stand for body bags coming back to America from an Eastern European country and whoever is in charge won't have the backbone to allow it. Why would they?

I am aware thanks.

So here we are then. If true then we can't even muster proper sanctions against Russia let alone start a ground war against them. The optimism from some that we are going to defend some of this Eastern European nations is misplaced in my opinion.

A lot of them disagree. There's voices on both sides but the point is it's not going to be universal opposition to Russia in Ukraine.

Yet apparently its swallowing Russian propaganda to make that argument!

I think you misunderstood my post. I think he believes what he said which is the problem.

Russia can take what they want and then just sit there as an occupying force waiting for the next opportunity to expand in a few years. A huge percentage of the country are Russian anyway so I expect from Putins point of view it's manageable.

If you want my opinion, I think that the west will slap sanctions on Russia and offer support to Ukraine but ultimately they will fall. I think Putin will then say that he's got what he wanted and he will stop there, people will move on and then in a few years time he will encroach again (by which time the West will have moved on and been distracted by other things.)

Well we will see won't we but in my opinion your desire to downplay Russia's capability and seriousness will be shown to be folly just as those who predicted that this was all a bluff have been shown up.

Quite possibly. Certainly a more realistic scenario than some on here are suggesting.

I don't see how Ukraine will be able to hold out for that long. I'm told that Russia have the largest heavy artillery and ground troops in the world and they've been planning this for a while (intelligence suggests they plan to attempt to take Kyov within days.) Much more likely imo is that Russia seize power and then look to quell unrest as soon as possible.

Piffle. I also would like him squashed and removed, my opinions are what I think the West will actually do rather than what I would like to see happen. The fact you think that I'm aping Trumps opinions speaks to your bias not mine.

I know its comforting to try to downplay the seriousness or the capability of an enemy but you underestimate your opponent at your peril- particularly one as dangerous and as well placed to inflict pain on the west as Putin.

So how do you see this playing out then? Because I don't see it ending at Ukraine and from what I've seen neither do so called experts on the matter.

I'm guessing you're neville chamberlain in this scenario given that you've swallowed all the Russian bull about them just going into those two regions and firing a couple of rockets to prevent those evil Ukrainians from committing genocide.

No I'm realistic about how serious Putin is unlike many of the talking heads who've been saying it was all a bluff for weeks or those who think we can stop him with some piddly little sanctions. You're the one with your head seemingly in the clouds, swallowing Russian propaganda about them sending in a peacekeeping force because they've been asked to by Russian separatists in Ukraine. We will see won't we if he simply goes into those two regions and no further then we will know you were right and there was never any intention to invade further. If not though will you be coming back on here to admit you were wrong?

So you think he is going to take back the two regions and not go any further? That his intention isn't to overthrow the Ukrainian government and reclaim what he views as rightfully his? Did you not listen to his speech the other day?

You have more faith in me that the West has the confidence that it has something worth fighting for in small Eastern European countries. My view is that Putin desires Soviet territory much more than the West wants to defend it otherwise they would have done something beyond shrugging their shoulders when Russia took Crimea.

I'd fight him as early as possible but that would involve real pain for all of us and real world consequences and western political leaders aren't prepared to do that. It's not about where I would draw the line, it's about the lack of conviction or any sort of courage beyond platitudes from our political class that will let Putin carry on.

I think he will get a lot further than some people imagine on here. People don't want their comfortable lives disrupted and the calibure of politician has declined to such an extent that none will have the backbone to push back if Putin goes at a slow enough pace. Do you really think lightweights like Macron or Boris are going to sanction ground offensives against a juggernaut like Russia led by someone who will happily pay the cost in bodies to get what he wants? NATO is dead.

He's not mad, he's clearly a very canny operator and shrewd which is why he's held power for so long. I completely disagree with you that it is not his intention to an ex the country. His clear and obvious intention is to restore the soviet Union starting with Ukraine and then expanding from there.

So other than a token show of force and some sanctions, do you think that the West is going to get drawn into some full scale war once Latvia or its equivalent is invaded? Because I can't see the public in these countries going for it, least of all the likes of Biden.