Jimmy_D

It’s early enough that different parts of the country are at different stages of Omicron. Where it has had a (very) little more time to spread it’s very quickly become the dominant variant. This will repeat everywhere. Also data on variants takes more time to process, it’s not that the other 80k are confirmed to not be Omicron, it’s that we haven’t confirmed how many are Omicron yet.

Feels like Omicron was a massive earthquake out at sea and a load of people have gone to the beach to see if there’s a tsunami or not.

Clearly handled it to control it.

What a finish!!!

Beautiful.

https://www.cogconsortium.uk Basically thanks to COG UK https://www.birmingham.ac.uk/news/latest/2021/07/uk-scientists-designed-world's-most-sophisticated-covid-19-sequencing-system.aspx https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/03/europe/tracing-uk-variant-origins-gbr-intl/index.html On this at least, the UK really is world-leading.

The massive drop in deaths reflects the previous wave of Delta receding. Hospitalisations and deaths are lagging factors, and the massive spike in cases caused by Omicron won’t necessarily have shown up in those yet. https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/south-africa#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-cases Also there are further confounding factors in the data from South Africa that mean it might not translate to a wave in the UK, for example, so far the vast majority of infections in South Africa are in younger age groups, and with Omicron being so heavily mutated, it’s possible there are other factors involved, for example a change in incubation period or progression of illness. The anecdotal reports of it being milder ARE promising, but like I said, it’s too early to assume that’s the whole picture just yet.

Really could be. Really hope it is. Too early to say just yet, though, and the cost of assuming that and being wrong would be immense.

Unfortunately we’re living in a world that’s going through a global catastrophe. It increasingly looks like it’s just taken a massive turn for the worse and they’re just being honest about that. They’re not any happier to say that than you are hearing it.

So sorry to hear that Winnersaint, thoughts are with you.

Unbelievable. Completely undeserved for Brighton, that equaliser.

Boosters definitely help against Delta, which is the problem we're facing right now, and are very likely to help against Omicron, albeit possibly to a lesser extent. Why wouldn't they be encouraging vaccination?

The mutations on it mean it can easily be tested for, as some haven't shown up before, and also because of those mutations, it seems like it's been discovered remarkably early after emerging, early enough that it's before we know how serious the illness it causes is. As as soon as it was sequenced it was spotted as unusual for the sheer number of mutations, including a lot on the spike protein that the vaccine targets. Those spike protein mutations make it more likely to be able to avoid the vaccine. It very likely won't stop vaccines working completely, but they'll be less effective, and the next mutation that emerges and becomes dominant could take it even further away from the vaccine. On top of that, where it was first discovered in South Africa, it's outcompeting Delta to the extent that it's now responsible for 90% of new cases, and there's a surge in new infections comparable to when Delta first emerged. Basically the early numbers that have been seen so far look really really bad, and we don't know yet whether the effects of Omicron will follow on similar, more benign, or possibly even worse than other variants. It's possible we're 'overreacting' in that it'll end up on the more benign side of the scale, but we've been stung too badly by doing less than was needed before to not react to this one. If Omicron does turn out to be on the worse side of the scale, anything that slows it spreading and gives us more time to increase vaccination and development of treatments is going to save lives. This in the FT gives a pretty good summary of where we're at. What we know about Omicron variant that has sparked global alarm | Financial Times (ft.com)

Or that Delta variant, don’t think we ever heard any more about that one either…

Mild symptoms aren't uncommon with previous variants either, we haven't seen enough cases for long enough to know whether more serious symptoms also occur with the same frequency as in previous variants, but at the moment there's no reason to assume it only causes mild symptoms. If it does only cause mild symptoms, AND it outcompetes previous variants, AND it causes immunity that's effective against other variants, then we might have hit an unbelievably massive lucky break. It'd basically be a self spreading vaccine that's most likely to vaccinate those that put themselves most at risk. Right now there's nowhere near enough data to indicate that that's happened, and even after that we'll be waiting longer to know whether Long Covid effects are milder too. I hope she's right, that really would be a light at the end of the tunnel, but I don't think you can really accuse the UK of being over the top with it's response, when even she's quoted with “Two weeks from now maybe we will say something different.”

If everyone had been wearing masks and following basic advice all the way through, it’s very likely to have made enough of a difference that we’d have had a R number way below one, and we’d only be looking at isolated cases due to travel now. I know it’s not really realistic to think that could have happened, but literally the only thing stopping that was that people didn’t want to. Almost every day we’re seeing more people die of Covid than were killed in the 7/7 bombings, but we’re living in a time where that’s barely even noticed.

Hopefully you're right, but some of the numbers on infections seen so far suggest it might be evading the vaccine. Vaccinated numbers in South Africa mean we can't tell for certain yet, so it remains to be seen how it behaves in a more vaccinated population, but if it evades the vaccine enough that it can also cause serious illness in vaccinated people, the current measures in place will seem to have been woefully inadequate. My gut feeling is that it's not the worst case scenario, but it's now more likely than with Delta that unvaccinated people will come into contact with it, mostly through vaccinated people with relatively mild or no symptoms, and they're the ones most at risk in the UK, but we really don't have enough data yet.

What do you think that actually shows? There are literally thousands of variants, the vast majority of them end up harmless and probably were never even seen, eventually some of them end up dangerous through luck, basically like long ball football. It was ages ago that they started using the Greek alphabet to designate some of the potentially more dangerous ones. That picture as far as I can see just shows an underestimate of how many designated variants we expected to see by now.

Unfortunately this one, Omicron, has the potential to be bad. We’re at a stage where strong measures against it aren’t going to be accepted by the public until a significant effect is seen from it, at which point a far bigger response is needed. Looks like it’s going to be similar to when Delta started taking hold, this time our relatively highly vaccinated population is likely to help us a lot in avoiding serious disease, but it’s likely anyone unvaccinated is going to end up coming into contact with this one. Remains to be seen how dangerous that will be but it’s likely to be similar to other variants. It’s been a good idea to take regular Covid tests, keep social distancing, and wear masks in public settings all through the pandemic, but for anyone that’s either stopped or never started, now it could potentially make a huge difference. I’d especially say to anyone that’s either not vaccinated, or anyone that could potentially come into contact with anyone that’s not vaccinated, these are especially important, both to try and reduce spreading it yourself, and to try and protect others too.

That’s three points dropped.

One of those games where you’re wondering how you’re not 2 or 3 up.

Higher expectations, worse squad at Villa, plus here Hasenhuttl has a club and a fanbase that’s stuck by him through some low times, and a squad that’s settled with his tactics. At Villa it’d probably turn a bit toxic at the first sniff of trouble on account of him not being Dean Smith. It’s possible he goes if Villa chuck a ridiculous amount of money at it like they did with Ings, but even that might not be enough. Very unlikely he goes I reckon. Watching the betting odds is worse than useless with next manager market.

Start of the second half we were getting overrun because their wing backs were pushing forward far more aggressively. Switching to three at the back allowed us to counter that by pushing our own wing backs more aggressively and forcing them to defend more. We looked far more stable against them after making that change.

So, Ing’s replacement scores a cracking goal against Villa, and we go on to keep a clean sheet? Even if we should have made it easier ourselves, and the bellend of a ref should have sent their cheating **** off? That’ll do

Not sure what the rules are regarding it having been seen on VAR already, but surely that forearm smash needs to be upgraded to a red? Wouldn’t be surprised to see the red that was given overturned though.