Just use the last two games it is easy
4 points 2 per game
37 to go 74 -1 =73
Play off spot easy
In fact use whatever figures you want to justify your stance.
I dont think Pardew has the team playing well at the moment which will probably change soon but we wont get relegated and we wont get promoted either this season
Which is what most people thought in July but hoped that things would have been better