NewYorkSaint

When you go player by player and compare this year with last, there's every reason to think we will do a lot better. Goalkeeper: last year we were at 6's and 7's half the season. This year... Boruc is proven. L and R backs: Shaw and Clyne can only have gained in experience and strength. Shaw only came in part way thru. And we now have great backup for Clyne in Chambers. Center backs: last year, a v inexperienced and nervy Jos and Jose. This year they're experienced - and still only make backup. Holding midfield: Schneiderlin and Cork. Awesome last year... this year shd only be better. They're both young and gained amazing experience last time round. And they're now aided and abetted by the thrilling prospect of Wanyama. Attacking midfield: Gaston, Adam, Punch, Davis. Slight concern about Adam. He started last season as team's best player and lost his way after the injury. Will be back 100%? Gaston wildcard but shd be better. Lots of options. Strikers: Rickie is key question. He's gained premiership experience. But also another year of age. JayRod came on by leaps and bounds and shd be primed for action. Then there's exciting prospects of Mayuka, Isgrove. And if none of this works: Guly. All in all, the overall quality and depth of the squad is massively better than last time. If Rickie and Adam show up we could be amazing, even without another purchase. Though it will depend on Poch finding the right combo. I could see us trying a super-flexible 451 with the killer midfield of cork, spider, wanyama, Punch and Adam (+ Davis/Gaston/Isgrove as amazing backup). Upfront Rickie or JayRod. I predict 8th place. Can't wait.

Excited by Wanyama. Won possession 3 or 4 times, then instant, accurate distribution.

Striped socks enough!

Double Punch!

Personally, want Wigan to win. We still have a chance at overhauling Swansea. Their final two fixtures are Man U away and Fulham at home. If they go LLD, we can take 'em. We're not going to be relegated. We're 6x more likely to finish 10th than 18th... --> http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Southampton.html

It really distresses me when people panic without looking at the real numbers. This site http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Southampton.html ...calculates all possible outcomes with odds based on playing records. It gives us a 1.3% chance of relegation. Even if we lose both remaining games there's only a 10% chance we go down. 25 to 1 odds are a real ripoff. We're far more likely to finish top 10 (7% chance) than to be relegated. It can happen. But it won't. Instead of panicking, let's dream of 2 wins and the possibility of leapfrogging Stove, Vila, Fulham and one of West Ham or (final day) Stoke and ending 10th. Also unlikely. But far higher chance than relegation. C'mon Saints. Let's end with some joy!

According to http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Southampton.html ...we are 7 x more likely to finish in top 10 then we are to being relegated. Even if we lose both games, there is only 10% chance we get relegated. Yes, it might conceivably happen. But overall chance is calculated here at 1.3% = 70 to 1. (Those 40 to 1 bookie odds are a rip-off!). It's natural to be nervous, but personally, I'll go with the numbers. We'll be fine. And a single point turns it into a 99% certainty.

MP so far has totally won the strategic battle.

According to this brilliant website: http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Southampton.html ...chances of relegation for Saints are 0.1%. 1000 to 1 would have been a fairer price. But if it stopped you worrying, I'm sure £10 well spent. The same site says we still have 1 in 11 chance of finishing top half of table. More interesting and uplifting bet for me!

Wow... West Brom really have our number. Pretty much our worst two results of the season. Sickening. Hopefully we learn from this.

ouch

Gaston looking good so far... Clyne and Davis having great games. Ain't over yet. I'd like to see Mayuka get 20 mins for Lambert.

Great link, The9, thanks for that. Same site gives us just 20% chance of top 10 finish currently, though a win this w/e will boost that significantly... We'll probably need 47 points - a min of 2 wins and 2 draws to get there.

Edit: West Brom too... but Ladbrokes have them at 9:1, longer shot than us, even though currently ahead. My times have changed.

Interestingly, you can still back Southampton at 7-1. Us and Swansea only teams with a realistic chance other than Man-U. Look for 'divisional handicap' under this link. http://is.gd/oOUUnQ And even if we come in third, that's staying that relative to expectation, Saints did 3rd best of any team. Not bad, friends, not bad.

Spectacular football. When is the world going to realise that there isn't a single top team that hasn't been given a hard time by Saints this season? Now... can we sustain the pressure? It'll be heart-breaking to lose this one.

There have been two competing descriptions of the past two months: 1) Saints flatter to deceive... all flash, no substance. 2) Saints playing glorious, fast-touch attacking football, and desperately unlucky not have more to show for it. On basis of today, it's that second story that's the correct one. We were AWESOME. Lallana and Rodriguez are going to strike terror into the heart of many a defense before the season is done...

The quality and pace of our passing game in that half was just sensational. Commentators claiming Liverpool not playing well. Like Man U. And Man City. This is not a coincidence. Our pressing game is blitzkrieg supreme. And how about Ramirez? He's coming good. Lallana back too. Just love it. Score shd be 3-0. Pleease don't blow this second half, saints. want 2 more goals!

Interesting that Hooiveld and Yoshida still favored over Fonte (and Forren). Great to see both Clyne and Shaw playing again. It's a strong team. But if no goals for us by 60th minute, we need Punch on! Fingers crossed this could be the day Ramirez truly shines.

We all underestimate the role of luck in football. If just one of the 15+ shots on goal goes in, we're 1-0 winners, and you can bet that the entire narrative of this thread would be completely different. It would then have been a spectacular away win against a strong side who we'd made look average. And yet everything about the game would have been exactly the same... EXCEPT for one microsecond adjustment or one slight rebound or, or, or... And every game is like that. The 'better' team, even the better team on the day, only wins maybe 60-70% of the time. That's because football games are often settled by a single goal. ...and in the circumstances that lead to any goal, there is ALWAYS an element of luck. Personally, I look at the overall quality of Saints play, the amount we dominate possession, and have done the past 10 games, and the long-term track-record of people like Ricky Lambert, and I feel pretty confident we'll make it. Yes, frustrating so many chances were missed... but brutal conditions, and taking the season overall, we are great goal scorers. There's no question we were the better overall team today. I don't think Norwich are going down. We're better than Norwich, even playing them away. We'll be OK. (Probably.)

We are so much the better side. Schneiderlin, Gaston, Lallana, Fonte, Lambert, Boruc... and SHAW... all had strong halves. Maya??!!! With Clyne on and fit, I think we'll win this.

Pretty sure there are going to be at least 2 more goals in this game!

I'm genuinely surprised that bookies have Newcastle twice as likely to win as Saints given recent form of both teams. If I could bet legally on this from the US, I'd be popping a few on Saints at 12 to 5... But we shd make no mistake: win a giant result for us. Draw wd be great too.

Very, very happy with that team. Lallana was our best player first part of season, and if he's back on full song, I'm excited. Puncheon, Ramirez available as impact subs. Slightly surprised that Jos in ahead of Jose. But he's been strong last few games. Maybe the early problems weren't so much him as lack of Cork. Exciting couple of hours ahead...

There's a difference between the decision, and the way it was implemented. I think it's pretty clear now that Pottechino offers a step up. So the decision to bring him in was the right one. Some of the critics seem to think you can never fire a manager unless he's performed terribly. There's no logic to that. If the owners are ambitious, you replace a manager if and only if you believe you can install a better one. So I have no problem with the fact that the decision was taken weeks earlier, that it happened right after a great performance, etc. Al that was actually really smart. What wasn't smart is that it would have cost Cortese nothing to honour Adkins with a much warmer statement, program guide recognition, and perhaps even a farewell ceremony on the pitch. Instead of "whilst we acknowledge Adkins contribution..." he could have said: "Adkins was a great manager. A truly great manager. He brought us up 2 divisions. The club will always honour his performance and his time here. We'll give him a great send-off. But I believe I've found a manager who's even better and can take Saints to the very top of Europe.... " That would have made the whole transition so much easier. He didn't do that. It's a real shame. But it was still a brilliant, courageous decision... ...and yes, it's time to move on.