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Things are looking up for the Tories if the Guardian are to be believed


dune
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there is evidence that the swing away from Labour in Lab-Lib Dem marginals may be as much as 8%, while there is no discernible swing from the Conservatives in Con-Lib Dem battles.

 

So as many of us thought the Tory vote is holding up while the Labour vote is collapsing primarily to the benefit of the Liberals. It's not all good news for the Tories because they will struggle to win what was considered to be crucial Lib-Con marginals, but with Labour losing so many votes to the Liberals it opens up new battle grounds in Lab-Con marginals where the Conservatives can take advantage of a left wing split vote and sneak in through the back door. It's all getting quite complicated but what is looking certain is that the Conservatives will now be the largest party, but bigotgate could just do enough to deliver a conservative majority.

 

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/apr/28/liberal-democrats-labour-marginals-poll

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there is evidence that the swing away from Labour in Lab-Lib Dem marginals may be as much as 8%, while there is no discernible swing from the Conservatives in Con-Lib Dem battles.

 

So as many of us thought the Tory vote is holding up while the Labour vote is collapsing primarily to the benefit of the Liberals. It's not all good news for the Tories because they will struggle to win what was considered to be crucial Lib-Con marginals, but with Labour losing so many votes to the Liberals it opens up new battle grounds in Lab-Con marginals where the Conservatives can take advantage of a left wing split vote and sneak in through the back door. It's all getting quite complicated but what is looking certain is that the Conservatives will now be the largest party, but bigotgate could just do enough to deliver a conservative majority.

 

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/apr/28/liberal-democrats-labour-marginals-poll

 

Of course, the counterpoint is a Yougov poll (prior to today's Brown events) that says Con 33%, Lab 29% and LD 28% which would leave Labour as the largest party but short of a majority by about 40.

 

It will be interesting to see the effect of Bigotgate... I'm sure as many people agree with Brown privately as those like Dune trying to play it up as a scandal. I had forecast a rise in Lab at the expense of the LDs as Clegg has overplayed his hand among Lab/LD switchers but if Andrew Marr can't tell what might happen, who am I to say now?

Edited by TopGun
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Of course, the counterpoint is a Yougov poll (prior to today's Brown events) that says Con 33%, Lab 29% and LD 28% which would leave Labour as the largest party but short of a majority by about 40.

 

Well just to keep things up to date this is todays Yougov poll CON 34%(+1), LAB 27%(-2), LDEM 31%(+3)

 

n.b this poll doesn't take into account bigotgate but shows the Conservatives 7 points ahead of Labour.

 

Ram that into your swingometer and smoke it.

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Well just to keep things up to date this is todays Yougov poll CON 34%(+1), LAB 27%(-2), LDEM 31%(+3)

 

n.b this poll doesn't take into account bigotgate but shows the Conservatives 7 points ahead of Labour.

 

Ram that into your swingometer and smoke it.

 

Actually I'm quoting the latest poll just released Dune. In tomorrow's Sun.

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Nah i've just checked - you're out of date. That poll is being published in The Sun tomorrow but Yougov have done another one since - the one I pasted up. That was the 27th April poll, the one I put up was the 28th.

 

Scroll down the page on this link.

 

http://www.ukpollingreport.co.uk/

 

 

 

Where is your poll published Dune? ukpollingreport shows the one I quoted as the most recent.

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Top Gun what results do you get on your swingometer with the up to date Yougov poll just out of interest?

 

(i say up to date but even this poll doesn't take into account bigotgate)

 

I get those figures as Con 267, Lab 250, LD 104, Others 29.

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Scroll down the page on the link, it's in an article. The second article from the top.

 

Comres due out at 10pm officially, so most recent of all. Con 36, Lab 29, LD 26.

 

Which is Con 280, Lab 264, LD 77, others 29.

Edited by TopGun
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I think it's now nailed on that the Conservatives will be the largest party, we've just got to hope that bigogate drives away enough core Labour voters to let the Conservatives in through the back door in seats such as Southampton Itchen and Test. It's these Lab-Con marginals that are now the real battleground that the Tories must win to get that majority.

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So with the largest number of seats and share of the vote it looks like a tory-lib pact. I blame Sue personally.

 

Not if an article in todays Mail is to be believed. Conservative sources have told them that David Cameron will not give in to Liberal demands over voting reform and is prepared to ally with the Unionists and the Nationalists and go with a minority government.

 

A senior Tory told the Mail: ‘My strong impression is that David would battle on without a majority or try to cobble something together with the unionists and the nationalists. No one wants to give in to Lib Dem blackmail over PR.’

 

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/election/article-1269477/General-Election-2010-Cameron-hammer-pact-unionists-smaller-parties-avoid-Lib-Dem-electoral-reform.html

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Not if an article in todays Mail is to be believed. Conservative sources have told them that David Cameron will not give in to Liberal demands over voting reform and is prepared to ally with the Unionists and the Nationalists and go with a minority government.

 

A senior Tory told the Mail: ‘My strong impression is that David would battle on without a majority or try to cobble something together with the unionists and the nationalists. No one wants to give in to Lib Dem blackmail over PR.’

 

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/election/article-1269477/General-Election-2010-Cameron-hammer-pact-unionists-smaller-parties-avoid-Lib-Dem-electoral-reform.html

 

shows how sad cameron is,so much for change and the big society.

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Not if an article in todays Mail is to be believed. Conservative sources have told them that David Cameron will not give in to Liberal demands over voting reform and is prepared to ally with the Unionists and the Nationalists and go with a minority government.

 

A senior Tory told the Mail: ‘My strong impression is that David would battle on without a majority or try to cobble something together with the unionists and the nationalists. No one wants to give in to Lib Dem blackmail over PR.’

 

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/election/article-1269477/General-Election-2010-Cameron-hammer-pact-unionists-smaller-parties-avoid-Lib-Dem-electoral-reform.html

 

And the price of nationlist support will be - erm more money from England for Scotland, Wales and NI. Go Cameron!

 

Loved the unintended irony of this comment after the Mail article. Dozy **** wouldnt be allowed to live in Pas de Calais if it wasnt for the EU.

"A vote for UKIP is support for Labour and Liberals who signed and supported the Lisbon treaty. Do you want more power given to these Euro fanatics. I find it incrediblle that UKIP wish to support indirectly these parties." - K Martin, Pas de Calais, 28/4/2010 19:08

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I think it's now nailed on that the Conservatives will be the largest party, we've just got to hope that bigogate drives away enough core Labour voters to let the Conservatives in through the back door in seats such as Southampton Itchen and Test. It's these Lab-Con marginals that are now the real battleground that the Tories must win to get that majority.

 

Do you understand the concept of a core voter?

 

If you did you'd understand how idiotic your ramblings are.

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Do you understand the concept of a core voter?

 

If you did you'd understand how idiotic your ramblings are.

 

Yes I do and i've already had this discussion with you. I may ramble but I don't resort to insults in every other post.

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Not if an article in todays Mail is to be believed. Conservative sources have told them that David Cameron will not give in to Liberal demands over voting reform and is prepared to ally with the Unionists and the Nationalists and go with a minority government.

 

A senior Tory told the Mail: ‘My strong impression is that David would battle on without a majority or try to cobble something together with the unionists and the nationalists. No one wants to give in to Lib Dem blackmail over PR.’

 

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/election/article-1269477/General-Election-2010-Cameron-hammer-pact-unionists-smaller-parties-avoid-Lib-Dem-electoral-reform.html

 

As SNP and Plaid are basically on the same page as Labour on most issues, Cameron would have to concede a huge amount of extra self-legislation to Scotland and Wales for that to happen. I don't think that is feasible given that such a minority government would likely have to go to the electorate again in a year or so.

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Yes I do and i've already had this discussion with you. I may ramble but I don't resort to insults in every other post.

 

Then if you understand it, which I doubt, you'd know that "core" voters don't switch, which is why they are "core" voters, which is why, last week, you were on about getting thre "core" tory vote out.

 

It's not "core" votes that decide elections.

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As SNP and Plaid are basically on the same page as Labour on most issues, Cameron would have to concede a huge amount of extra self-legislation to Scotland and Wales for that to happen. I don't think that is feasible given that such a minority government would likely have to go to the electorate again in a year or so.

 

Personally I think it's ********. The SNP and Plaid will produce very few seats anyway so it'd be better just to go minority without them and string it out for another election in the autumn.

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Then if you understand it, which I doubt, you'd know that "core" voters don't switch, which is why they are "core" voters, which is why, last week, you were on about getting thre "core" tory vote out.

 

It's not "core" votes that decide elections.

 

You've already said that. And i've already said that Mrs duffy was a core voter. And a good many other people like her who've voted Labour all their lives will switch to the Liberals.

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Personally I think it's ********. The SNP and Plaid will produce very few seats anyway so it'd be better just to go minority without them and string it out for another election in the autumn.

 

That's 11 seats or thereabouts which is potentially a lot of Parliament votes one way or another as a bloc at the moment.

Edited by TopGun
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You've already said that. And i've already said that Mrs duffy was a core voter. And a good many other people like her who've voted Labour all their lives will switch to the Liberals.

 

TBF Rochdale has been LD territory for years. It was Cyril Smith's seat. It is only boundary changes that make it Labour potential.

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If the Libs play the long game here they could be onto a real winner.

 

Tories form a minority government and **** it up, which they will. Labour will implode into a leadership war, they sit back and watch the other fall apart and storm through in the election that will end up being called within 12months with a double dip recession to help them.

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Anyone know if the Queen must invite the leader of the party with the greatest number of seats to form a government, even if they are a minority in parliament with only a few more seats than others? Could she choose two parties who have publicly agreed to work together?

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If the Libs play the long game here they could be onto a real winner.

 

Tories form a minority government and **** it up, which they will. Labour will implode into a leadership war, they sit back and watch the other fall apart and storm through in the election that will end up being called within 12months with a double dip recession to help them.

 

FPTP doesn't allow for that. Too much core red in the urban areas and core blue in the rural areas.

 

Labour "imploded" in 1983 as did the Tories in 1997. Both were still far larger parties than the Liberals/LDs after each election.

 

Arguably we have been here before with your scenario VFTT as far as Labour are concerned because the SDP came out of that after 1983 and lasted a mere few years before merging with the old Liberal Party to first form the Alliance and then the LDs as we have today. The LDs did not benefit from that in the long term.

Edited by TopGun
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FPTP doesn't allow for that. Too much core red in the urban areas and core blue in the rural areas.

 

Labour "imploded" in 1983 as did the Tories in 1997. Both were still far larger parties than the LDs after each election.

 

Arguably we have been here before with your scenario VFTT as far as Labour are concerned because the SDP came out of that after 1983 and lasted a mere few years before merging with the old Liberal Party to first form the Alliance and then the LDs as we have today. The LDs did not benefit from that in the long term.

 

I don't believe they'd win power but they could find themselves in a very advantageous position by doing nowt!

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Anyone know if the Queen must invite the leader of the party with the greatest number of seats to form a government, even if they are a minority in parliament with only a few more seats than others? Could she choose two parties who have publicly agreed to work together?

 

Convention offers the previous government the opportunity to try and form a coalition first of all.

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Convention offers the previous government the opportunity to try and form a coalition first of all.

 

So if no party has a majority in parliament Labour will be invited to try to form a government, even if the Tories have a larger number of seats? Interesting.

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I don't believe they'd win power but they could find themselves in a very advantageous position by doing nowt!

 

I think a hamstrung minority government such as the one voted in in Feb 1974 (minority Lab) causes voter polarisation so that the ensuing election (Oct 1974 in that case) produces a more clear cut result. It's a natural tendancy.

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So if no party has a majority in parliament Labour will be invited to try to form a government, even if the Tories have a larger number of seats? Interesting.

 

Gordon Brown would have first dibs at forming a coalition (minority government). That's where the bartering would occur.

 

Somewhere along the line a deal would be struck, if not with Brown, then with Cameron. But the prices asked by the LDs and nationalists would be possibly too high for a coalition to last very long. Thence another election called to clear the air like 1974.

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Gordon Brown would have first dibs at forming a coalition (minority government). That's where the bartering would occur.

 

Somewhere along the line a deal would be struck, if not with Brown, then with Cameron. But the prices asked by the LDs and nationalists would be possibly too high for a coalition to last very long. Thence another election called to clear the air like 1974.

 

 

I'd be delighted with a coalition which delivers PR, then collapses and we have a new election under PR. Im so sick of the two party system. Basically everyone knows that Labour is tired and jaded and the Tories are the weakest (talent and ideas wise) they've been for generations, except possibly the Major government. Its Hobsons choice.

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I'd be delighted with a coalition which delivers PR, then collapses and we have a new election under PR. Im so sick of the two party system. Basically everyone knows that Labour is tired and jaded and the Tories are the weakest (talent and ideas wise) they've been for generations, except possibly the Major government. Its Hobsons choice.

100% agree.

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I'd be delighted with a coalition which delivers PR, then collapses and we have a new election under PR. Im so sick of the two party system. Basically everyone knows that Labour is tired and jaded and the Tories are the weakest (talent and ideas wise) they've been for generations, except possibly the Major government. Its Hobsons choice.

 

 

That would be pretty good.

 

There are people on this forum that think the PR system would return 75 UKIP seats to Westminster, but I am prepared to take that risk........

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I'd be delighted with a coalition which delivers PR, then collapses and we have a new election under PR. Im so sick of the two party system. Basically everyone knows that Labour is tired and jaded and the Tories are the weakest (talent and ideas wise) they've been for generations, except possibly the Major government. Its Hobsons choice.

 

It's an interesting secenario in many ways.

 

You have the Tories offering up the best talent that they have for this election in terms of front bench material and it isn't startlying good. Osborne is very weak and the markets know that. Villiers is prob quite good but not being used properly as is the case with a couple of others. Otherwise the cupboard looks a bit bare.

 

Labour might have better people but they are being overshadowed by Brown and his kingpins like Straw and Harman. Johnson is the natural successor in many ways as a moderate with a clean record but himself maybe viewed as too much associated with Brown. The younger generation of Milibands, Jim Murphy, Andy Burnham etc are reasonable bets longer term but they have to toe the line at the moment. John Denham would play a valuable part in a younger Labour front bench too as he is unimpeachable having resigned over the Iraq war previously on principle.

Edited by TopGun
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Not if an article in todays Mail is to be believed. Conservative sources have told them that David Cameron will not give in to Liberal demands over voting reform and is prepared to ally with the Unionists and the Nationalists and go with a minority government.

 

A senior Tory told the Mail: ‘My strong impression is that David would battle on without a majority or try to cobble something together with the unionists and the nationalists. No one wants to give in to Lib Dem blackmail over PR.’

 

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/election/article-1269477/General-Election-2010-Cameron-hammer-pact-unionists-smaller-parties-avoid-Lib-Dem-electoral-reform.html

 

I believe you referred to Tories doing deal with SNP and Plaid as nonsense. Shows how wrong you regularly are.

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there is evidence that the swing away from Labour in Lab-Lib Dem marginals may be as much as 8%, while there is no discernible swing from the Conservatives in Con-Lib Dem battles.

 

So as many of us thought the Tory vote is holding up while the Labour vote is collapsing primarily to the benefit of the Liberals. It's not all good news for the Tories because they will struggle to win what was considered to be crucial Lib-Con marginals, but with Labour losing so many votes to the Liberals it opens up new battle grounds in Lab-Con marginals where the Conservatives can take advantage of a left wing split vote and sneak in through the back door. It's all getting quite complicated but what is looking certain is that the Conservatives will now be the largest party, but bigotgate could just do enough to deliver a conservative majority.

 

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/apr/28/liberal-democrats-labour-marginals-poll

 

What happened to the Tories 15 point lead Stanley?

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If Conservatives form a coalition with SNP and Plaid there will be another election within 10 months, mark my words. Doesn't take a genius to see that the most likely outcome at the moment is a LibLab coalition, and that's what I hope to see happen. Even then, we'll probably have an election before a year, maybe 2 if we're lucky. Coalitions don't have a great track record, but it's hard to see any party being able to win by a majority at this moment in time.

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