Saint Without a Halo

1-1 punch

1-0 sunderland

That is what probability across a number of events is all about each on its own looks likely to give a particular outcome but taken as a whole! very little chance!

I will say it again 39 points will not see us relegated using the above logic we will be relegated next season whatever division we are in, as all other teams in the league will win, and we will lose all our matches so why do we bother entering! Our fate is not only in our own hands but even losing two games a lot of other results have to go against us to go down! we have rarely been this comfortable going into the end of the season in a top league relegation tussle over my 45 years of supporting saints! If anyone offered us the position we are now in with two games to go we would have bitten their hands off when this season kicked off.

You can add to that also the need for both norwich and Newcastle to get at least 2 points each from their last two games! So actually seven things to think about!

You cannot be safe on 37 there are currently only 3 teams with less! 37 will now mathematically go down!

Maybe Fergueson is our next manager now he's chucked Man u

how? only 3 teams now have less than 38!

Yup this has been the case since we hit 39

Even if wigan win both, Norwich Sunderland and Newcastle all need to overtake us and of course we need to lose both games! chances of all this happeening are currently 250 to 1

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Southampton.html 0.385 % (250 to 1) of being relegated 20% (5 to 1) chance of 11th! After Wigans result

youm are mistaken we were never likely to go down on 39 points with our goal difference what it is! that is why we have the odds we do! of course it was possible but actually highly improbable as it turned out!

There are 6 teams making up 6 points over one team in this case Fulham but even then there are three teams who dont! Norwich, Swansea and Newcastle so they are still effectively safe if they had the points in the bag! Also I have used a 6 game series for this to happen when many on here saw it happening over 3! The issue is, it is not only the points difference that matters but equally importantly are the number of teams below you that need to ovetake you. It is difficult for 5 or 6 teams to overtake a team over 6 games almost impossible over 3! That is why we were always safe on 39 points as the probailities showed!

We are and have been safe since getting to 39 points!

Also interesting to note the teams from WBA down are all currently lining up in the table in accordance to their goal difference the only exception being Villa who are punching above their GD weight!

Now time for some perspective! For those who continued to believe all other teams could win and we will lose all our matches I list the last 6 matches for the following bottom teams bar Reading and QPR 1) Villa W3D1L2 pts 10 2) Saints W2D2L2 pts 8 3) Wigan W2D2L2 pts 8 4) Sunderland W2D1L3 pts 7 5) Westham W1D4L1 pts 7 6) Stoke W2D1L3 pts 7 7) Swansea W1D3L2 pts 6 New C W1D2L3 pts 5 9) Norwich W1D1L4 pts 4 10) Fulham W0D1L5 pts 1 As we can see the average pts per game is barely more than 1.25 a game and there are always at least 2 or 3 teams with less than 1pt a game in this case Fulham, Newcastle and Norwich I also note Saints have done as well as anyone in the bottom half over the last 6 games apart from Villa That is why we were always safe on 39 ands all these theories that everyone will win whilst we lose, or that all bottom teams would average 2 to 3 points a game, are nothing but myths Only Villa gained any points over us over the last 6 games, and then only 2! This shows just how difficult it is to make up a 6 point difference over 6 games, when there are many teams below us, and this is why probabilities and bookies are inevitably right and we were always safe on 39 points what ever the wrist slitters said! QED

Yup you are right! Certainly much more likely than relegation! although 12th to 14th are the most likely

We are and have been since we got onto 39 points!

Using your own logic surely you are not right until such time as we are mathamatically relegated!

how about sunderland and stoke to not beat saints?

So then why are we assuming all other teams fighting for their lives can pull of unexpected results and we cant?

So what are yours then?

For a bit of perspective it is interesting to note that even after yeaterdays results there is a considerably greater probability of finishing 10th than being relegated 6% to 1.3%! or 17 to 1 top ten to 75 to 1 relegation! Also if we assume we will get no points next season whilst all others will get points we will be certain to be relegated whatever divsion we are in!

I am glad there was no internet/forum for the majority of our great escapes when we constantly went into the last 3 games needing 4 to 5 points in the 60's till 2005 I remember particulalry Dellhurst, the 4-1 win on the last day home to Villa and even the year we went down in 74 after a brilliant 3-0 away win at Everton which left us 1 point short! Going into the last 3 seven clear, 7 teams in the mix and 5 below us, good goal difference and with two places already filled is as Monty Python used to say LUXURY LAD LUXURY!

I had a video made as my grandfather had an early recorder the match covered two complete tapes and each tape was the size of a big book! Still have them somewhere not sure they could be played back now! they had all the post match BBc interviews/celebrations with the players in the changing rooms too!