Saint Without a Halo

The most money I ever made gambling as my pride would not allow me to turn down the countless bets from all the Man U fans around me at odds of 6-1. We had to win or I would have been bankrupted at the age of 17! The relief, the Joy the tears when the goal went in and the bitten fingernails over the remaining 8 minutes till the whistle went will be with me forever! An emotional rush that has never been repeated! What a day, perfect hot weather, perfect result, and loads of money to boot! I also have a programme signed by the full saints squad as a memento I still treasure!

Dalek I think your processor has gone wonky and needs a re boot from Davros! Even were we for one minute, to accept your rather warped logic we will surely still finish above Newcastle who on the same basis as you claim for Saints will not pick up any further points having been walloped by 3 and 6 at home in their last two games. Your logic also comes unstuck to as given Saints will lose by 6 at Spuds according to you and Sunderland lost by 6 at Villa what will the demorilised derby game of Sunderland Saints result in given they both can't lose? And their was silly me thinking Daleks were logical machines!

That in a nutshell is the point! that is why bookies are offering 100 to 1 plus and they are not stupid!

We all know how difficult it was to pick 8 potential draws from 46 fixtures to win the pools! we have to have at least 15 results go a specific way against us to be relegated! the chances of this happening are very remote to say the least. Yes it is still possible, but it is highly highly improbable! There are currently about 1 in a thousand possible permutations of the remaining fixtures that see us down and 999 that dont.

You are right any team can win a straight 3, but we dont have just one team below us in the mix we have 5. The chances of all 5 teams at the bottom all winning at least 2 out of 3 and therefore all averaging 2 points a game are remote to say the least. At least one one of the 5 teams below us (if not more) will get no more than 2 points! Look at any six game form table and you will see at least 3 teams with 2 or 3 points or less. so over 3 games there will be a few teams with 1 to 2 points or less. Yes we can all do the predictor and force every possible result to go against us and yes this will see us relegated by 2 points, however what is the real probability of this happening over the last 30 or so games where at least 20 of these need to be forced in one direction in order to lead to a relegation!

You think wrong! It is a very remote possibility and highly improbable!

The point is any one two or even three of the chasing sides can have a good run but the liklehood of them all doing it is very remote! Hence the bookies odds (they are far from stupid)

There are 7 teams in it the average for the bottom teams is 1 point per match it is almost statistically impossible that all 7 will suddenly produce 2 to 3 points a game form, even more so because they each play each other a number of times and many also have matches against top teams involved in a real scramble for lucrative European Championship places. At least 1 if not more of the teams below us will get 3 points or less in their last three games my money is on at least 3 of them doing so.

I suggest you take any table and calculate the average points per game of the top 5 by dividing the points total into the number of games and do the same with the bottom 5 you will see what I am talking about! the top 5 always average around 2 points a game and the bottom 5 around 1 point a game. AS 2 is twice 1 ERGO a lead of 5 points at the top is half what its worth at the bottom in terms of number of games to make up a lead if the team in question scores no more points. Try any football table you like since 3 for a win came in!

Errr one key difference is the teams around the top tend to pick up more points per game than those at the bottom! So a 5 to 7 points lead at the top is only worth approx half one at the bottom!

How quickly we all forget! The saints of old when struggling were usually going into the last 3 games needing 4 or 5 points and others to drop points in order to stay up! We are going into the last 3 (4 for wigan) with 1) A seven point buffer (points in hand being better than games in hand as the season closes) 2) Two relegation places already filled 3) At least 7 other teams in the mix for the last relegation place and 5 of those below us already 4) A better goal difference than most This is a far from uncomfortable position to be in in our first season back after a double promotion particulalry as most pundits expected us to struggle in the Championship never mind the premiership Time to take a dose of reality and relax! We have done Bloody well and will stay up and be stronger next year!

OK lets see I have supported saints for 45 years and think i know when we are safe and when we arent by now! Why is my view arrogant and yours not paranoia! you have as much chance as being run over by a car crossing the road as of us going down so I hope you stay holed up inside!

Relax we are safe!

We stated the aim of our club is to bring youth through and by developing youngsters! cant see that changing much, in fact a large number of our exisiting team have been blooded well in the premieir now and will only get better next year. Two to three additions is probably all we need and likely all we will get if we are to continue following our stated strategy!

If all that happens then £1 on an accumulator will pay you handsomely! do you think bookies are stupid? you have more chance of getting knocked over crossing the road! does that stop you going outside your house?

and when you are proved to be wrong by not understanding probabilities and the way statistics work?

So boring constantly running down our players better go on the Pompey site and run theirs down!

Here! http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Southampton.html

Agreed but then again they had a lot to shout about!

For the Upteenth time No we wont! 39 is fine!

Are there any players we think are any good! we are 13th in the premiership after two successive promotions FFS! "Patience is a virtue"!

and this!

This!

Should have stayed in dubai at the bar rather than pitched up at the game! Poor performance by everyone! they look so much better on the screen in the pub! or is it the drink?

poor for last 15 min so good for 75min! Fitness by any chance?