Saint Without a Halo

770 to 1 on betfair! and increasing by 10 every minute!

Your mum must be a Grand Master!

Yup thats how I read it too. Back on topic take away our 6 points versus villa and we have only done as well as them against everyone else. However we have recovered from a really really poor start!

Thanks, but to put your mind at rest You are far more likely to get knocked over crossing the road when you go out than us being relegated this season yet I hope you still go out! As a Saints supporter for over 45 years I have learnt by experience when to relax and when to worry.

spot on 20% on here http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Southampton.html

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Southampton.html There are 6 teams who need to get more points and goal difference than us for us to go down! The probability of this happening given they play each other in a number of key matches is miniscule. This is shown in detail the above site! The site uses a Monte Carlo statistical analysis that simulates the likely outcomes of the remaing matches over 5 million times looking at all probabale outcomes. It shows us relegated in just 0.07% of all simulations whilst it shows us achieving a 10th place or higher in 22% of the outcomes. i.e we are 300 times more likely to be 10th or better than go down! This methodology is used to reflect bookmakers odds! (All be it they build in profit for themselves so never fully reflect the true probabilities) The model works by looking at each match and attaching likely outcomes i.e if for example Man U v stoke was likely to be a home win 85% of the time a draw 10% of the time and an away win 5% of the time then these are the percentage outcomes for this match over the 5 million runs! By doing the same for all other remaining matches you achieve all likely outcomes. Each simulation then produces a final table and in the 5 Million final tables we are relegated in just 0.07% of thetime a negligable percentage. This probablistic technique is used in Risk analysis in most industries and is highly effective. In fact there are about 800 000 simulations in which we get no points from now till the end of the season and even then we are still not relegated 97% of the time! Relax we are safe!

Maybe he thinks it is still the old artifcial one from times gone by? Also Interesting to see that since he left Bournemouth he has come full circle as he will be in the same league as them next year!

1) I don't think we will lose the next game 2) Even if we did, we are safe already. The current relgation probability now being less than 0.1%

We are 300 more times likely to finish 10th or higher than 18th or lower! Relax

Chance of relegation now 0.07% and chances of 10th or better 22% http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Southampton.html I think we are clearly safe and have been for some time! time to look up not down!

22% chance of 10 or better and 0.07% chance left of relegation after todays results i.e 300 times more likely to be 10th or better than relegated http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Southampton.html

I'd forgotten how bad Chelsea were in the early 80's and how poor the attendences were. There were 4 games with less than 15,000 spectators in the top division

Time is already telling 0.2% chance of relegation now! No yo yo for you!

Forren not selected as crocked by MP!

Dont worry our scouts get to France from Germany via Belgium

As I recollect the 76 win meant we qualified for Europe the following season so we got both! not an either or!

Great News Am pleased for Saints and Arthur! Re watches they are to get people like us to talk about them like we are!

Most fans like Loftus road because so many of them get 3 points there and then go out on the **** in London!

Well Pompey Down and Bmth looking Favourites to go up to the Championship with the 2-2 between Sheff U and Brentford!

17th this year would still not achieve the 2nd "YO"! after achieving the first "YO" last year by coming up! Anyway I believe 17th was your prediction for our first year back in the championship last year so wherever we manage to finish from here on, in this year, your predictions will show a year on year significant improvement.

After todays matches a finish with 46 (8 from last 5) points would see us with a 79% chance of 11th or better and 36% chance of 10th or better most probable position as of today remains 12th and we have an 80% chance of finishing 10th to 14th. relegation is 0.2% chance only or 500 to 1 now Even if we lose all our last 5 matches our survival chances are still 86% or just above 7 to 1 http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Southampton.html

Part of the plan to get you to buy the watches maybe?

I dont agree, i think we would easily get more than 7m for him based on his career to date and his potential going forward, 12m howeer may be a stretch as it was when we bought him! But we are not trying to sell him now anyway we are trying to build a a young team for the future playing good football of which he may well be a part of! whether the investment turns out to be good or bad will be based on what he might be worth at 25/26/27. The answer to that is nobody can yet tell. I do however suspect the club are reasonably pleased with his progress to date!

There are too many teams between us and the bottom 3 with only a few games left! It is the number of teams that all need to go past us in the last few games rather than the points difference which is our greatest asset at present.

Also the fact Wigan now play Man C in the FA cup final will have an influence on the outcome of their league game too!