Saint Without a Halo

Errrrr No

There is no harm in setting hard targets to achieve. Better to say we are aiming at top 4 and under shoot to mid table than to say our aim is to be mid table and undershoot to relegation. also we are about to enter negotiations with a number of key players we want to join the club. Ambition will be key to getting them in. Who wants to join a club whose main aim is to avoid relegation? Yes it may be wishful thinking but where is the harm?

This is exactly why bookies use weighted probabilistic analysis to compile odds and why we have been safe to all intents and purposes since the Reading match. In reality there is no such thing as 100% safe! Even mathematically safe on points leaves open other risks such as relegation for breach of regulation by the league via a points deduction. So ultimately safety is a state of mind where the probability of being unsafe is so remote as to be highly unlikely and insigniifcant. This was the stage we reached after the 2-0 win at Reading. Compare such reasonable analysis with those of the panicky doom mongers who are comfortable to assume that all oppostion will win all their matches, a series of 15 plus matches will go only one way and we will lose all our remaining matches by putting aside all precedents, form and logic. In the end it is clear that reasoned analysis is not HAPPY CLAPPING if the analysis had supported relegation we would have been equally veherment that the stats point to us going down!

It takes a great person to admit they were wrong well done!

This!

I did say we were nailed on safe after Reading when looking at the probabilities however a certain Dalek is likely to blow a few fuses now his prediction of 39 points equals relegation which he stuck to in the face of all mathematical probilities seems shot to pieces! Although I must admit he is slightly closer this time than his prediction of Saints finishing 17th in the championship last year!

Bye Bye Wigan

I wonder now if 35 points would have been enough for us to stay up? (Wigan lose today and Sunday and we have 5 less points we would more than likely still be above them on GD!)

Arse 2-1 theo

Even Dalek & Alpine now think we are safe so the interest has waned somewhat from what it was last week

I am confused! Over the last few weeks run in the resident doom merchants on here have claimed we are so bad we will lose all our matches and every other team in the league will get maximum points! On that basis surely we can only go down next season! As usual reality will be somewhere between the two extremes and we will probably be comfortably mid table!

Real odds 0.01% or 1 in 10000 see http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Southampton.html Also interesing to note still a 7% chance ot 10th and a whopping 30% chance of 11th

signed

Too true if it was Saints at home needing the win to survive we would have expected to get it as did Sunderland. in the end they didn't due to a good fighting display by us! not what i would call inept!

Exactly!

Unlikely Alps NC has given them a 10 fold plus return in investment in a very short period they will be far more concerned about that than whether or not Gaston has made a contribution! It is in my own humble opinion more likely they now want to consolidate and go slowly to protect what they have but NC wants to spend big and make the next step promising them yet another doubling in their asset value. i.e. NC is a confident risk taker and the family are not. They want more say he sees that as cramping his style and he calls their bluff, They will either reach a workable compromise or not! given what he has achieved already I would be surprised if they dont ultimatrely find an acceptable compromise. NC is in the far better negotiating position! This was always gong to happen once we were safe and next years TV income was secured! it is normal board room politics!

Quitre common most CEO's of large companys rarely last more than 3 years if they are good they move on to better things and if bad the share holders generally get rid of them.

ALP's Funny, now that there are rumours he is going you suddenly decide the club has made more good decisions than bad and that he is irreplaceable!

This is probaly it! NC wants a significant amount of funds to take the next step the Trustees are relectunt to spend big, Nicola calls their bluff! Without him the club is worth a lot less!

I think the change was made not so much based on who could get more out of the exisiting players but who is more likely to attract and secure better players in the traqnsfer market! We shall see this summer if this assumption is proved correct!

to be clear the only way we can go down is if 1) Wigan win at arsenal 2) Wigan win against villa 3) Sunderland draw or win at Spurs 4) We lose by at 11 goals more than Villa do at Stoke probably 12 if our scored goals remains higher then theirs! 5) Fulham get at least a point or lose by less goals than us. The combined probability of all of the above happening is now less than 1 in a million so technically we can still go down but in the real world we are Safe Our probability of going down is too remote a probability to consider seriously indeed we have been effectively safe since the Reading game given what needed to happen since then for us to go down and how remote the likelehood was. I continue to believe that 39 points will ultimately be enough even though we now have 40!

I agree and 40 plus seasons for me too

Glad to see you have finally got the hang of probabilities Dalek, relegation has been a very REMOTE possibility for a few weeks now since we beat Reading!

If they beat Arsenal it is still in their hands! As a win in their game v Villa will see villa down!

Great result well done saints coming from behind to confirm our safety with home stoke still to go! As I said after Reading we were safe and will not go down! I still believe 39 points was enough but this point ensures no squeeky bum time next week!