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Everything posted by Frank's cousin
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I am just grateful this nice bit of racist ****e was spouted by a pompey 'fan' and not one of ours... glad we embrace all fans form the community personally
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Club Finance Story - On Solent from 7am this morning
Frank's cousin replied to saints_is_the_south's topic in The Saints
Think the accounts show that the first season after relegation they were fell from 49 mil to 32 mil then down to 26 mil or there abouts - happy to be corrected though... -
Club Finance Story - On Solent from 7am this morning
Frank's cousin replied to saints_is_the_south's topic in The Saints
Seriously NOT worried... If we had any other micky mouse, fan type chairman I might be, but as stated above - I do not believe NC would ever sanction that level of spending had he not had guarrantees the cash was there to cover it - and indeed he even saiud there was following Markus's death, but left the option open should the family wish to opt out - which would have been understandable. -
Club Finance Story - On Solent from 7am this morning
Frank's cousin replied to saints_is_the_south's topic in The Saints
True, but our last 2nd tier revenue (after losing teh parachutes) was around 23-26mil turnover if I recall - I suspect we have a wage bill around 13-15mil which would be managable on that turnover - remeber our last prem wage bill ws 26mil on a 48 mil turnover -
Club Finance Story - On Solent from 7am this morning
Frank's cousin replied to saints_is_the_south's topic in The Saints
Sorry Kraken you missed the point slightly - had the club NOT had the backing, I am sure that the 15 mil Oxo cash would have been set aside to cover the wage spend if we were going for a promotion push as we have done, without the guarranteed backing of the Liebherrs? This instead of investing 15 i Staplewood, we would be using that to pay off a chunk of the 33 mil or would probably ont have spent so much in the first place! My argument is taht I do not think we have a CEO who would sanction the kind of wage spend we have had without teh guarrantees in place that it would be covered.... That is what makes it so different from the risky strategies seen down the road -
Club Finance Story - On Solent from 7am this morning
Frank's cousin replied to saints_is_the_south's topic in The Saints
Thing is Chez - think of it this way - IF we had not committed to the 15 mil development of staplewood (Which is probably being covered by the Oxo Money) then that would in effect nearly halve those ''losses' meaning instead of 33 mil, it would be 18 mil of which 14mil was the purchase price - so as Because we had Liebherr backing we were able to reinvest that money in other areas of the business rather than using the funds generated form player sales to ensure we broke even.... considering through clever appointments and wise transfers we stand on the verge of promotion the PL in 3 seasons, would say that 4-5 mil (the loss without the oxo cash) would have not be such a big gamble - especially as we have assets worth way in excess of that which would be liquified to cover the risk if not promoted? So although in theory we 'have not been breaking even', the fact remains that this is in part because we wanted to spend a huge chunk of revenue in other projects - which we could afford as the Liebherrs were supportive - I suspect that without the additional cash, we would have used the Oxo money, plus say a Lambo or Adam sale in the summmer to balance the books - It would only be a liabilty if we were in a position where our liabilities were greater than the asset value, or we were stuck with players on contracts way beyond their actual worth so impossible to shift... I agree we should always be looking to ensure the club has a sensible wage policy, but its been clear to many that NC is simply not the kind of man who would pay that level of wages if he could not GUARRANTEE that the funding would be there to cover it if needed - he has always stated provision has been made and we have had to trust him... this equity conversion shows we were right in doing so in MHO -
Club Finance Story - On Solent from 7am this morning
Frank's cousin replied to saints_is_the_south's topic in The Saints
Thing is, why the need to try and speculate on who is happy, unhappy? No need. Think this is a simple case of 2+2 =5. We KNOW the Leibherrs would probably sell if the price was right, nawt to do with being happy or otherwise, just different interests which is fair enough. We should still be very thankful that they have supported tehir late father's wishes and NC in delivering the plan to date - as NC has indicated, if they chose to sell, he has others waiting who would support teh fulfilment of the plan... -
Bring on the Monkey Chicken Petting Zoo I say
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Right, am driving down (thankfully have a full tank for the 490 mile round trip) for this one - have the secret sexy nun ready to be smuggled in just in case but will need to rely on the Web Troops (Ohio) to get them ready should we need them. Knowing the nuns are on the parade will help the lads no end - if push comes to shove, I'll stop the OWTS and sing the 'The Nuns are coming' so Adam et al know we have the will of the Lord behind us... Bring it on.
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Ok so lets do a best integrity scale thingy and see what happens: Option 1: The 'CLEAN/NEW SLATE' Solution - Rich new bidder with lots of cash - pays all outstanding creditors in full, including Chinney, old CVA CSI etc + Gaydamk etc + 10 mil to ensure they can avoid debt next year on their current contractual obligations - PURCHASE COST est £48 million ODDs - 1,000,000 to 1 - THE RIGHT AN HONORABLE approach Option 2: A new CVA is agreed - which includes all current creditors, at 20p in the pound (subject to Chinneys debendture not being worth 17mil) + cost of paying off gaydmark etc and say 2-3 mil to cover contracts they cant terminate in the summer PURCHASE COST est £12 million ODDs 1000 to 1 - The legal, but hardly honorable you cheating skate ****s approach Option 3: The accept the punishment to get the cheap approach - The club is sold to a consortium for 2-3 mil, but no new CVA is agreed. The lub exits administration having cleared its footballing debt, but without a CVA in place (effectively creating a newCo to inherit the golden share, but walk away from the debt) - start next season with -15 points in L1.. or agree new CVA at 2p in the pound to avoid points penalty (yeah right) Purchase Price £1 (2-3 mil for keeping teh thing going and footballing debt clearing) Odds? Evens FL punish the clu with -15, but club survives having wrintten off 160 mil in 2 years...... Option 4: Liquidation Odds: 10:1
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The key in all this is that it should be outlawed by the footballing authorities that clubs can be leveraged for purchase - for me that is the one thing I find worriying about clubs that are potentially for sale - the rest of it, good/bad, owners is part and parcel of the game and you need a slice of luck, but its this leveraging that is the problem. In a way, Saints were leveraged in that the originla 14 mil purchase price/payy off for Barclays and aviva was up until today on teh books as a loan from the owner....
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Club Finance Story - On Solent from 7am this morning
Frank's cousin replied to saints_is_the_south's topic in The Saints
Thing is NC said previously that should the Liebherrs wish to divest, he knows several folk who would be interested - from that I reason that they are folk know to him and he would in effect be a partner in any consortium. -
Club Finance Story - On Solent from 7am this morning
Frank's cousin replied to saints_is_the_south's topic in The Saints
My take is somewhat simple, and FWIW may I say less hysterical than some of the reactions and no doubt especially those down the road, who will be in a frenzy LOL. Would you mind? First up: Markus Liebherr saw an opportunity to turn a failing club/business with decent infrastructure around. He knew it would require a solid financial strategy, but one he was willing to back and invest in as the returns for success would be more than adequate. Since day 1 – Firstly Markus, and then the Liebherr Estate (With Katherine Liebherr, honouring her father’s commitment and investment provision) have invested a TOTAL of 33 million up to June 2011. That INCLUDES the 14 mil purchase price (or cost of satisfying and clearing the creditors Aviva and Barclays). This means that in addition to the purchase price, they have invested a net 19 mil in those 2 years, some of which will have been player purchase, wages and infrastructure improvements – approximately 7 mil in 2009-2010 season, and a further 12 mil in 2010-2011. So a total investment of 33 mil for a business that if promoted to the PL will be worth TWICE that (approx 60-70 mil) – Looks like VERY GOOD BUSINESS to me. Many have said before that this ‘debt’ is NOT debt, but would be converted to equity as it’s about investing in a business to ensure growth – common practice. The 93% wage to turnover was for the promotion season in L1 and is high, but expected. We have since had 70% turnover increase and likely a wage increase but would expect the ration for 2011-2012 to be more like 70% as a result. (NB. Do not confuse 'shares' with PLC/stock exchange shares - there are likely to be 4 or 5 shares wiyth a nominal value - if the reports have any truth, NC will own one and the Leibherrs 4) On the potential sale: Nicola Cortese is trusted friend of the Liebherrs, and sits on the MALI board which is now owned by Katherine Liebherr. He probably fully understands that they don’t really have the passion or interest in football or the club that their late father had, however, they are decent people who have honoured their father’s commitment. However, NC also commented some time ago that should they wish to liquidate their asset, he knew many folk through his financial connections that would be interested in taking over... I suspect that there is some truth in the rumour, and that the Liebherrs would be willing to sell under the right conditions to the right folk – and that NC would ensure that happens. The tricky bit of the puzzle now is that we are 2 years ahead of schedule if we are promoted and such the club is no longer worth 20-30 mil, but if promoted twice that - if any sale is being discussed, its more than likely that its changed the ballpark and a compromise on price would need to be reached somewhere along the line. I see no need to worry about this – I see NC here to complete the long term plan, whoever is holding the equity, given that its possible he holds 20% (if that speculation is true) he will have a very vested interest in the clubs future potential. Ideally any new owner would be aprivate invester, rather than a financila institution, and yes there might be the possibilty that any purchase is leveraged against the club, but we cant predict the future, so lets at least not get depressed by 'what ifs'? By all means ask questions and rightly ask questions about our wage to turnover situation, but I suspect that by the time we are in the Prem, this will be self sustaining – the investment was to get us there. I also suspect that because we are ‘ahead of schedule’ the wage to turnover level is probably still higher than expected by the time we are promoted. Think we need to chill out and enjoy the ride. -
But if not a tier one the kids go cheap to other Academies - that's what all the fuss is about - This investment won't produce better players- it merely ensures we attract the kids and can keep them until they are worth something more than small compensation - that is why it's so important as a business as well as a footballing strategy - read up on the new system and you will see why we are doing this
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Think the get out clause for the FL to do sweet FA (pun intended) is that the previous admin was not whilst they were under the jurisdiction of the FL, but rather th PL.... Wet,ball less feckers the lot of them- it's feckin disgrace and sets a very dangerous precedent for the game as a whole...watch the FL create anew rule to address this after Pompey escape any further punishment... Sickening
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You are missing the point though - to continue producing the this calibre of youngster in the future we will need to have tier one academy status to attract and keep the best kids - that requires amongst other things a certain Standard of infrastructure, education suites etc... That is why we are spending the money... So we can continue to produce 1 or 2 very good players every. 2 years or so - our big advantage is location and catchment area for the academy - no competition until you get to London and for many youngsters and parents we are a safer bet for the whole of the south of England... So this is wise move. Club for sale? Who cares really. If Markus were still with us I am sure it would be longer term, but the key for our future is NCs current approach to getting us in position where we are able to build within a prem environment - how far you can go will always depend on the money but new fair play regs will ensure its a little easier.... I am sure that if wee were sold it will be to someone who would recognise the work done and the strategy and look to continue that with NC at the helm.
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Actually think a draw between them is better for us, especially if we bag a win at Blakppol - would leave us 7 points clear of Reading and 8 ahead of WHU... with eveyone still with 6 to go.... getting squeaky time now...
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Thing is, if they stayed up having played their kids with a thread bare squad you could argue it was a well earned battle - If they saty having been allowed to sign loanees from prem clubs, whilst thsoe around them make do with limited resources, it just makes a mockery of the very integrity of the competition the FL say they are so keen to defend... What the skates dont get is that is why I cant stand them - that they cant even see how they have been so lucky in the authorities have treated them - they just carry on bleating that they have been hard done by...
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Best now is a reading win or at worst a draw - meaning whatever our result at blackpool a minimum of either 5 or 6 of 3rd - max 8 or 9 with a win, West Ham win and would put the pressure back on us to get a result - would be criminal if BFS and his hoofers go on a decnt run really, such arrogant ****ers...
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To be fair I will stand by the fact that had he not been such an arrogant tosser, more fans would have recognised that his approach was not far wrong - financial stability, infrastructure investment, not going stupid in the transfer/wage market etc.... is not that much different to what we are doing now. Had other clubs also followed a similar prodent financial pattern we would have been Ok in the prem... subject to getting managerial stabilty that is....
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... well whatever the real situation a couple of things are factual 1. If/when/sell...interested i long term or not... we will be in a far better position and worth alot more than when Markus decided to buy us 2. Cortese is driven by a desire for success and to make money - but that is only possible if the club reaches and exceeds it potential so feck all to worry about IMHO.
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1. ..The dutch duo is a good thing - in mitigation m'lord, the principle was good, but impossible with kids and hey were perhaps a little naive.... 2. .. Woodward is a great move... agin in mitigation m'lord, teh IDEA of transferable skills, all the sports science stuff etc is sound... but the role was never properly defined and it was never going to work with someone like Harry.. funily enough, could see someone like Adkins working really well with someone like woodward, if the roles were properly defined and Adkins wa sresponsible for first team etc.... 3. ...loads more, but would be way too emabarassing
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This - Even if we were now sitting comfortably mid table in the NPC (and lest be honest most of us would have been happy with that given what we knew about the tough nature of the NPC), I am sure Markus would have been happy with the progress - Given wher we are - think he would be as nervous as the rest of us right now... the image of him with his digi camera taking a pic of teh fans, is one that should be included in the FL FAPPT - its what a real owner is all about - sure its a good business move, recognising the potential, and investing appropriately etc, but it was clear that day that he had an emotional attachment to... and you cant ask for more than that.
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Bit disengenous - Keith was pro Mike Wilde and Crouchie before he was even got to know them - so he was 'rewarded' for his positive PR effort. I met Mike Wilde and found him to be a genuine bloke, same as Crouch despite that fact that to this day I still believe that they were very niave about why we were in the sheite. We were in the mess because of relegation despite having many players on 1/2 wage relegation clauses - most blamed Lowe (ironically) for NOT spending big on the first team whilst in the prem, instead investing in staplewood, and the stadium... hindsight is a wonderful thing. Crouch and Wilde made mistakes, but they both had a fans perspective and the interests of the club at heart. The mistakes were the orange Tango man and his cronies and blowing the 7mil we had as cash on a promotion attempt - which interestingly had it come off, would probably see us still with Wilde and CRouch, but my estimate would be with around 40-50 mil of debt right now. Keith is sound. Never agreed with him, did not share his opinion, but he is fair and courteous in defending his opinions. Good debate is what this forum should be about. Some prefer mud slinging.
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Not doing debt is not the same as not be ing prepared to invest in something that wilkl ake a return. Eg. Buy a plot of land for 100k - Spend another 150k build in a house out of your own cash, spend anouth 50K on fixtures and fittings. Total investment = 300k - value of property is now 400K sell and you have 100k profit. Even if you had borrowwwd tsay 250k from the bank, only spent 50k of your own cash, even after interest you might by 80k in profit. We should not confuse borrowing with debt - so even if the monies to build staplewood were borrowed from the Liebherr estate, provide the investment increases the value of the asset they own, they are always quids in. Its true, nobody knows what the nature of funding or directors loans are - all we have is that snipet from Nicola that Markus made 'provision' for the club - but what that is no body knows. If I were to speculate, it would be that spending money on Staplewood does increase the asset value + the investment made to help promotion does the same thing - so its most likely strategic and from a business perspective makes perfect sense as the value of SFC is now far greater that what Markus paid + the cash that has been spent eg approx 30mil spent, value after promotion around 50mil?