Why Southampton can top the tree at Christmas
Bill Edgar
It is shaping up to be the craziest Premier League season on record and it is only going to get tougher as the clubs enter the hectic Christmas period.
The 20 clubs will play five matches between now and the start of January with a full midweek fixture programme starting tonight. This season has been impossible to predict but — for a bit of festive fun — we decided to make an educated guess at who might sit top of the tree when the decorations come down.
Our projected Premier League table indicates what might happen if teams continue to perform at their present level. It also takes into account the strength of the opposition: both those played this season and those still to be faced.
Each team is given a ‘home’ and ‘away’ ranking. The home ranking is the halfway point between a team’s average points earned in home matches and the average points gained by their opponents in away matches. For example, Southampton average two points per game at home and their six opponents have averaged 1.41 points per game in away matches. Southampton’s ‘home’ ranking is therefore 1.71.
To predict the results of the festive fixtures, we compared home teams’ home rankings with the away teams’ away rankings. Anything less than a difference of 0.15 between the rankings is counted as a draw, to maintain the Premier League’s draw rate of 20 per cent. Otherwise, the team with the higher figure earns victory.
Southampton’s ‘home’ ranking of 1.71 is the second best in the Premier League and, under our projection, is enough to earn victories over Liverpool and Manchester City who have ‘away’ rankings of 1.30 and 1.22 respectively.
Here, we have predicted the results of all 50 matches. If any results look strange, that is because they reflect a very strange season.
KEY:HW Home win; D Draw; AW Away winThis week’s midweek matches all live on Amazon Prime Video
Today
Wolves v Chelsea 6pm D
Man City v West Brom 8pm HW
Tomorrow
Arsenal v Southampton 6pm AW
Leeds v Newcastle 6pm AW
Leicester v Everton 6pm AW
Fulham v Brighton 8pm AW
Liverpool v Tottenham 8pm HW
West Ham v C Palace 8pm HW
Thursday
A Villa v Burnley 6pm D
Sheff Utd v Man Utd 8pm AW
Saturday
C Palace v Liverpool 12.30pm HW
S’hampton v Man City 3pm HW
Everton v Arsenal 5.30pm HW
Newcastle v Fulham 8pm HW
Sunday
Brighton v Sheff Utd 12pm HW
Tottenham v Leicester 2.15pm AW
Man Utd v Leeds 4.30pm AW
West Brom v A Villa 7.15pm AW
Monday
Burnley v Wolves 5.30pm D
Chelsea v West Ham 8pm D
Dec 26
Leicester v Man Utd 12.30pm AW
Aston Villa v C Palace 3pm D
Fulham v Southampton 3pm AW
Arsenal v Chelsea 5.30pm AW
Man City v Newcastle 8pm D
Sheff Utd v Everton 8pm AW
Dec 27
Leeds v Burnley 12pm D
West Ham v Brighton 2.15pm HW
Liverpool v W Brom 4.30pm HW
Wolves v Tottenham 7.15pm AW
Dec 28
C Palace v Leicester 3pm AW
Chelsea v A Villa 5.30pm D
Everton v Man City 8pm HW
Dec 29
Brighton v Arsenal 6pm AW
Burnley v Sheff Utd 6pm HW
Southampton v West Ham 6pm D
West Brom v Leeds 6pm AW
Man Utd v Wolves 8pm AW
Dec 30
Tottenham v Fulham 6pm HW
Newcastle v Liverpool 8pm HW
Jan 2 (to be confirmed)
Brighton v Wolves AW
Burnley v Fulham HW
Chelsea v Man City HW
C Palace v Sheff Utd HW
Everton v West Ham D
Man Utd v A Villa AW
Newcastle v Leicester AW
Southampton v Liverpool HW
Tottenham v Leeds D
West Brom v Arsenal AW