SaintBobby

That Gardner red card is very helpful. Sunderland's attack is decimated and that starts to rip out the heart of their midfield.

Gaston Ramirez. Sadly.

Truth is that the gap between 9th/10th and 18th could be pretty tiny. I don't think there's any contradiction between saying 10th is a realistic target, but that we still aren't clear of relegation.

Plus, any injuries to the Wigan team have an effect. As would any red cards.

D'oh. Thanks, fixed it!

Now added.

UPDATES IN BOLD. SAINTS ARE NOW SAFE UNLESS WE LOSE 12-0 OR WORSE AT HOME TO STOKE Tuesday 7th May Wigan v Swansea (kick off 745pm, Sky Sports 1) RESULT Wigan 2-3 Swansea About half of all Premier League fans will be cheering on Swansea. If Wigan fail to win, they will have to get something out of Arsenal away in order to stand any chance of catching Saints. CONSEQUENCE: This is a massive result. If you were cussing the West Midlands and West Brom on Saturday, now is the time to give all your thanks and gratitude to South Wales. Wigan's defeat means Saints are almost certainly safe. Unless Wigan beat Arsenal away and Villa at home, they can't catch Southampton. Even if Wigan win both these games, Saints have a lot of "outs". The very strong likelihood is now that a team on 38 points (or less) will occupy 18th place - and Saints are already on 39. Mathematically, 41 points are still needed to be 100% safe - but it is now almost inconceivable that Saints will need such a points haul. As per my original post, even if we lose at Sunderland, the Arsenal v Wigan game on Tues 14th will probably confirm our survival. Happy days. Saturday 11th May Aston Villa v Chelsea (kick off 1245pm, Sky Sports 1) RESULT Aston Villa 1 Chelsea 2 Chelsea win desired here, obviously. A Chelsea victory means Saints can settle for securing just one more point and this might even alter our tactics (e.g. if we're drawing with 5 minutes to go, no need to go all out for the winner). CONSEQUENCE: Villa fail to guarantee survival and a point for Saints v Sunderland will effectively secure our Premiership survival (barring a 12-0 defeat against Stoke on the last day of the season) Man City v Wigan (FA Cup Final) (kick off 515pm, ITV1) - NOTE THIS IS NOT A LEAGUE GAME!!!! Man City 0 Wigan 1 Of tangential interest, I guess. A string of Wigan injuries/red cards would be useful. A Man City win is also desirable for reasons of morale. Maybe after 120 minutes to cause maximum exhaustion to Wigan too? UPDATE: A great result for Wigan. Will this give them momentum to get out of the relegation mire? Maybe, but not likely to be at the expense of Saints, thankfully. Sunday 12th May Stoke v Spurs (kick off 130pm Sky Sports 1) RESULT: Stoke 1 - Spurs 2 UPDATED: Results elsewhere mean Stoke were safe. Saints will overtake Stoke if we win the last game of the season. Fulham v Liverpool (kick off 3pm) RESULT Fulham 1 - Liverpool 3 UPDATED: Fulham are now safe unless they lose their last game by at least ten goals. Saints will finish ahead of Fulham if we match or better their result on the last day of the season. Norwich v West Brom (kick off 3pm) RESULT Norwich 4 - WBA 0 UPDATE: Norwich are safe and go one point ahead of Saints. Saints will need to better Norwich's result on the last day of the season (they are away to Man City) to go back ahead of them. QPR v Newcastle (kick off 3pm) RESULT QPR 1 - Newcastle 2 UPDATE: Newcastle are safe and go one point ahead of Saints. Saints will need to better Newcastle's result on the last day of the season (they are home to Arsenal) to go back ahead of them. Sunderland v Saints (kick off 3pm) RESULT Sunderland 1 Saints 1 UPDATE: Saints are now safe barring a 12-0 defeat or worse on the last day of the season. We will definitely stay ahead of Sunderland if we at least match their result on the day (they are away at Spurs) Tuesday 14th May Arsenal v Wigan (kick off 745pm, Sky Sports 1) UPDATE: Wigan now really need to win their last two games to stay up. If Wigan fail to beat Arsenal, the relegation places are decided before the final day. Sunday 19th May (all kick offs 4pm)

Never make any assumptions in football, as Dalek rightly says. The only assumption it is reasonable to make is that all of Wigan, Newcastle and Norwich will end up on more than 39 points. All other assumptions are mad.

I'm obsessed. Genuinely struggled to sleep last night. Feel so much more nervous than previous relegation scraps.

Well, not really. If we lost 8-0 and Wigan won 7-0, that would damage Villa's GD almost as much as our own and we'd stay up.

This. If we go into the Stoke game level on points with one of Villa and Wigan and a point ahead of the other, we are safe. (assuming we avoid a 13-0 defeat against Stoke or something mental)

Is there any reason you're assuming Wigan will get at least 5 more points and Newcastle and Norwich will both get at least two more points, then?

Really? If Norwich or Newcastle get zero or one points from their last 2 games, then 39 would still be enough. Also, even if Wigan do beat Swansea (which I'd say is about 50-50), they'd still need to get two points off Arsenal and Villa. So, there really are quite a few ways in which 39 is enough.

So, to be clear, you think that if Saints were to finish on 40 points, we'd be relegated?

Wonder if a draw might suit both teams. Depends if Sunderland get something from the Stoke game. If not, they have to go all out for the win.

Do you still think Saints need 41-43 points to avoid relegation?

Well, obviously. Everyone on here hopes we end up on 45 points. But were we to lose the last two games, it's still very likely we'll stay up. I'd say it's about 90% likely that 39 points will be enough, but also about 80% likely that we'll end up with more than 39. At least one of Norwich, Newcastle, Wigan and Sunderland is likely to end up on 39 points or less.

You're already wrong that between 41 and 43 will be needed for safety. It remains very likely that 39 points and a good GD will be enough. Not certain, but very likely. Of course, the likelihood is that Saints will get something from the last two games anyway.

We'll obviously be safe before kick off on May 19th if we win against Sunderland next week- and probably if we draw. Alternatively, if Wigan get a point or less in their games against Swansea and Arsenal, we're safe before the last game too.

Today's results could hardly have been worse. The chances of relegation are tiny - but I'm looking downwards not upwards at the moment. Stoke win and lots of red cards please.

The way it looks to me is that, even if we lose both games, Newcastle and Norwich need to get two points. One of them at least will probably fail to. Wigan need 5 points from 3 games - that's a tough ask. Additionally, I expect us to take between 2 and 4 points from the last two games. I'm still hoping we will be safe before kick off on the last day and think we will be.

Been a disappointing set of results recently. But 39 points is almost certainly enough to stay up still.

Nearly impossible to believe 41 points will be needed. Certainly not 42 or 43...

You actually said 41-43 wld be needed. It won't be.

We're fine. A point today would have sealed it though. Pity.