Jimmy_D

What’s happened in the Black Sea has a very real effect on Russia’s ability to take Ukraine. Two years ago the threat of an amphibious assault to attempt to take Odessa was a worry as it would have cut Ukraine off from all sea trade, and is an example that Russia’s ability to wage war has already been degraded. Kherson is probably the best example on the ground. Eventually they calculated that they didn’t have the resources to defend and withdrew. Russia are already starting to have problems replacing troops. They’ve cannibalized a huge portion of their regular economy to fuel their war economy. On paper that makes certain aspects of their economy look great, unemployment is low, production is high, but it also means that Russia isn’t producing everything Russia needs, with sanctions increasing that problem. As reserves start to run down, scarcity of some products is increasing, and inflation is starting to run away, making it more expensive to hire soldiers. On the battlefield, similarly, they’ve been delving into reserves of Soviet equipment to maintain their forces. While those are deep, they’re not replaceable at anywhere near the rate they’ve been using them, and the best quality is used first. There’s a reason we’re seeing equipment that’s 60 or 70 years old appearing from Russia, and motorised troops being equipped with nothing more than motorbikes. This is being exploited by Ukraine by using drones that Russia’s remaining materiel is more and more vulnerable to, with Ukraine now having the advantage in drone production, and also Western IFVs provided to Ukraine being able to compete with Russian tanks. Air defence is a particular problem for Russia, with coverage already having to be prioritised by Russia, and Ukraine in possession of weapons that can take out Russian air defence systems, which is about to be exploited by the introduction of F16 by Ukraine. Another aspect that’s starting to become an issue for Russia is artillery. They currently have enough shells, albeit of less than ideal quality, thanks to North Korea, but the barrels to fire them (and the ability to replace those barrels) is another matter. Huge swathes of Soviet equipment have been cannibalized just for the barrels. Russia has already started to have to ration barrel usage.

One battlefield has already been settled by Ukraine. The Black Sea has no Russian navy any more. What makes you think that it’s different for their army in Ukraine that means Russia can just indefinitely sustain more losses than they can replace?

So Russia still have access to the same level of resources they did two years ago then?

Russia would love everyone to believe they have effectively unlimited resources, but they really don’t. They’re gutting their own economy to keep the war going, and it’s starting to hit the tipping point where that’s going to start having very real effects on their ability to wage war.

Someone providing anecdotal evidence that Russian disinformation and propaganda works on ethnic Russians isn’t actually disinformation itself. (Or particularly surprising, unfortunately.) It doesn’t particularly surprise me that you’re either too dim or too disingenuous to recognise the difference, though.

Certainly not the worst we’ve ever done to start a preseason!

Very few international teams face more than one or two top teams on the way to winning a trophy, and none of them go into those games thinking they’re guaranteed to win. Even fewer fully deserved to win every game along the way. Southgate earned those easier draws to a certain extent by being far more consistent in qualifying and group stages than any other recent England manager. Remember how often we’ve heard ‘group of death’ attached to England because we weren’t in the top seeds and ended up missing out on finishing top of the group stage as a result, or even going out in the group stage. Part of the reason for avoiding that, and one of Southgate’s biggest accomplishments with England compared with those managers, is that we’re sat here talking about whether the football was good enough to win a tournament and not about whether the preparation or the environment around the players was to blame for yet another early exit.

Thought it was going to go our way for a few minutes after we scored! It very nearly did… and can’t help but wonder how it might have gone if it’d gone to extra time with the close offside or that late header cleared off the line, but at the same time it was similar late goals in our favour that even got us there. At least we don’t have to sit and watch any more games in the tournament without England still in it… straight back to Saints’ football.

One of those rare transfers that makes sense for everyone involved

YEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEAAARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRGGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!

Holy ****!!!!! What a way to win it!

Gah! What a chance that was…

Gah! Wasn’t far offside there!

Probably ‘Tackles or challenges’ with being late, missing the ball, and having studs up pushing it over into being classed as careless or reckless.

Looks like something’s finally clicked for England! Just hope we can take advantage of it…

Regardless of Kane getting the shot off, it was no different to a player going into any other tackle late and missing the ball but catching the player.

Defender goes through him studs up! Penalty surely?

Spain certainly very very deserved finalists, but they don’t look invincible.

THAT was the chance for France.

Blimey. That was a huge chance to level it up.

Interesting game now, Spain likely to keep attacking you’d think, but they’ve also looked vulnerable on the break, perhaps not surprisingly with the players they have out.

Ok, maybe not so difficult to break down (Although that is due to two incredible goals.)

Cracking goal!

Oh! German fans over the handball penalty that wasn’t given against him apparently, been a big part of the German reporting after they went out.

France likely to be extremely difficult to break down now! Have I missed Cucurella doing something? Crowd seem to be right on his back?