Jimmy_D

Reports that the Russian Air Force are now targeting the Wagner convoy heading towards Moscow. Also reports that Wagner has responded to Putin’s speech this morning by claiming that Russia will have a new president soon. Doesn’t seem like this has much chance of being resolved any time soon.

No, that’s just losses inflicted by Ukraine, it doesn’t include friendly fire incidents or accidents either.

The enemy of my enemy is my enemy’s enemy. Wagner isn’t exactly an entity that Ukraine would be wanting to make peace with or wanting to ally with, but their recent rhetoric about the separatist regions in 2014 has been far more aligned with Ukraine’s view than Russia’s, and all the time they’re opposing Russia it’s beneficial to Ukraine. Right now, it’s not entirely clear who’s going to come out on top, for any Russian army troops coming up against Wagner, siding with Wagner or opposing Wagner is more dangerous than doing nothing, and that’s paralysing Russia for the moment. There are early indications Ukraine are already taking advantage of that, with unconfirmed reports of making gains in Bakhmut and other areas of the front. Even if Wagner quickly reestablish supply lines to the Eastern front through Rostov, just their own forces being occupied with their coup, and the resources needed to oppose them are an huge drain on resources that aren’t opposing Ukraine. How this plays out and how quickly it plays out will decide just how disruptive it is to Russia’s war effort. One (distant) possibility is that Putin decides to quickly get rid of Shoigu and Gerasimov, appeasing Prigozhin, but that seems unlikely considering Wagner have already destroyed three Russian helicopters overnight, Wagner are already being labelled as traitors, and doing so would make Putin look incredibly weak. Another is that Russia gets past its current paralysis and uses overwhelming force (or attempts to) to take out Wagner, but that would severely weaken Russia’s army, and the vast majority of Wagner would no longer be a Russian asset. This would likely lead to an extended stalemate with Wagner troops defending Rostov in a similar manner to Bakhmut. Prigozhin changing his mind and realigning with Russia seems unlikely at this point. Wagner turning on Prigozhin and realigning with Russia similarly seems unlikely at this point. Wagner succeeding with the coup, taking control of the military, would similarly likely incur severe losses for both Russian forces and Wagner, even if there were widespread bloodless surrender and defection, it would also make Putin look even weaker. Prigozhin being in charge of Russia’s military, however, would be unpredictable. Despite recent rhetoric that Putin was deceived into invading Ukraine based on lies about Ukraine attacking the separatist regions, Prigozhin being in charge of the Russian Armed forces would likely be more effective than their current leadership. Wagner being in charge of Russia’s nuclear arsenal would also be unpredictable. All in all, it doesn’t seem like there are any good options for Putin here.

Seems very much confirmed by several sources, Prigozhin himself there. They’re currently in control of the command, control, and logistics hub overseeing and supplying the entire eastern front in Ukraine. It’s difficult to overstate the effect this will likely have on Russia’s troops in Eastern Ukraine… supply, reinforcement, morale, not to mention likely being needed to repel the coup attempt.

If that’s verified, that’s an extremely significant military asset that Wagner have gained control of.

As-yet unverified footage starting to emerge of Wagner fighting near Rostov, Wagner are claiming to have downed a helicopter that fired on them.

Oh well, I didn’t need sleep anyway.

Purely speculation, but I’m wondering if something has happened to Putin to kick this all off.

Top ranking Russian generals being dragged away from ‘refreshments’ into fatigues to try and stop Russians from invading Russia is towards the more unusual end of the spectrum for a Friday night.

Video going around reportedly showing military vehicles on the streets of Moscow. Unconfirmed reports that border guards aren’t opposing the Wagner troops crossing into Russia.

I guess one other option is that Ukraine have hired Wagner? (Only 99.9% joking with that )

Russia currently the second strongest army in Russia?

If it’s actually all fabricated for the purpose of something else, they appear to be REALLY committing to it. It’s starting to appear that it’s actually exactly what it appears to be. The next few hours and days will be interesting as to how it plays out and what turns out to be genuine. In the meantime Ukraine will still be carrying on with their own actions based on any opportunities that are presented, so ultimately any attempt at deception would be unlikely to help Russia much anyway.

Several different events converging today. Bipartisan announcement by the US that blowing the Nuclear Power Plant would result in NATO’s Article 5 being invoked. Putin appearing in two ‘live’ broadcasts on Russian TV in two different places at the same time. Claims by Prigozhin that Wagner was shelled with huge losses by Russian troops. Claims by Russian sources that the Russian army has been tasked with detaining/killing Prigozhin. Claims by Prigozhin that they’re in effect declaring war on the Russian Army. Claims by Russian sources that Wagner troops opened fire on Russian Army troops on the outskirts of Bakhmut. Claims by Russian sources that a criminal case has been opened against Prigozhin for calling for an armed rebellion. Unclear so far the accuracy and exact intentions behind the Prigozhin statements, but it doesn’t seem likely that it would lead to a positive development for Russia. It’s possible it’s a big hairy story designed to distract from the setbacks Russia have had recently, it’s possible it’s a prelude to being an excuse for withdrawing or falling back, it’s possible it’s a prelude to another round of mobilisation, it’s possible it’s exactly as it appears, or could be something else entirely.

If this is actually what’s happening as it’s said… bloody hell.

Pretty tragic all round. Sounds like this must have happened soon after the dive started. I guess there’s some small solace in that it would have been almost instant, and for the people that have been involved in the search that there’s absolutely nothing they could have done differently. RIP

That there’s footage almost hides how unbelievable it is that it’s happening. Imagine the USA had invaded Mexico last year, had stalled to the point of being pushed back, and now had resorted to dragging Sherman tanks out of museums, loading them up with explosives, before using them as VBIEDs.

Well, I do know for certain their objectives didn’t include more than doubling their border with NATO, reinforcing NATO countries’ commitment to NATO so as to be ironclad, losing their reputation as the second strongest military on the planet, and permanently losing half of the biggest customers for their biggest export.

Well, it started with ‘defending’ ‘separatists’ in Eastern Ukraine, then it was a few days to capture Kyiv, then it was combating NATO expansion, then it was defeating Nazism, then attempting to take Kyiv was a feint, then it was defeating Satanism, then capturing Kharkiv was a distraction tactic that they gave back as a goodwill gesture, then it was wiping out Ukraine as a nation because it doesn’t really exist, then capturing Kherson was a feint, and then capturing Bakhmut was a nine-month operation. I’ve probably missed one or a few in there.

Damn, have they changed again this week?

Well, they might want to actually start using it then, considering they hold less territory now than they did a year ago.

Probably holding it all back in reserve for when they run out of T-54s and Mosin-Nagant rifles.

Three more KA-52s reported as downed in the last 24 hours, on top of two confirmed since the counteroffensive started. There’s (very) unconfirmed speculation that Starstreak II have been supplied specifically to counter them, mostly based on it being one of the few systems that would have the range and anti-EW features to make it capable of doing so.

If that’s the metric they’re using, is there even any Russian equipment left? Certainly get the impression that the vast majority they’re using is Iranian, North Korean, or old enough that it was Soviet.

You keep digging out the same strawman argument about Russia running out of missiles. No one’s claimed they’ve completely run out. It’s also the case that they don’t have an unlimited supply. The numbers of cruise missiles they send are tiny compared to a few months ago. That combined with Ukraine’s increasingly comprehensive air defence has vastly reduced Russia’s ability to cause destruction with them.