Jimmy_D

Difficult to read too much into that, SW not the strongest opposition, and we don’t know exactly how we’ll line up by the end of the transfer window, but we’ve looked very decent and there’s a lot to be encouraged by.

Not a bad finish to start this season!

Just had a short promo about our last season at this level on Sky. That last season in the Championship was so much fun to be a part of. Completely exceeded expectations having just come out of League One, and watching Lambert step up and dominate a higher league was phenomenal to watch.

I always miss watching Saints during the summer, looking forward to the match now ^_^

Seemingly is correct. They’re targeting civilians infrastructure because it gets noticed and widely reported on. It’s useful to them to be able to claim they’re having success to the Russian people. It also does nothing for them militarily against Ukraine, but because military targets are extremely well defended in Ukraine now, and they don’t have the stocks to overwhelm those defences, it’s a way they can still get some use from their limited supply. Anyone doing anything to disrupt that messaging to the Russian people are finding themselves in trouble. Look back at when they started their terror attacks with missiles, numbers are tiny compared to then, they’re far more sporadic, and far less effective. Meanwhile, Storm Shadows supplied by the UK have had a reported near 100% success rate, with huge numbers of high military value targets hit. They’re about to get some more from France too. Not to mention the success Ukraine have been having with new counter-battery radar against Russian artillery and MLRS targets the last few weeks, as well as constantly hitting Russian ammo dumps. If Russia did have more in their arsenal, they’re not using it very well because Ukraine have been pressuring them back on all fronts for a while now.

Resulted in the only fighters and leaders that have had any success from Russia in the last 12 months being exiled to Belarus and Africa.

Difficult to see how Putin can possibly just let Prigozhin go into exile after leading an invasion of Russia that got within 200km of Moscow, destroyed at least 6 helicopters, a plane, reportedly all of the pilots for those, and a fuel dump. Doing so undermines a lot of authority that Putin had. Similarly with any Wagner troops that backed Prigozhin, letting them go scot-free again makes Putin look incredibly weak. Then you have the breaking of trust by any troops that stood aside for Wagner, or even supported them. Then, a lesser issue, but there will be trust issues with Wagner troops that didn’t go against Putin, but nonetheless refused orders to take that course of action. Then there’s the breaking of trust by Prigozhin in backing down and leaving troops following him high and dry, and troops loyal to Prigozhin are currently armed and pissed off. All in all, Wagner are unlikely to be anywhere near as effective a fighting force going forward, and the Russian army itself will have taken a hit too. On top of that, anti-Putin sentiment among the public was given the biggest platform its had in years, especially considering the lack of reprisals for a full on insurrection attempt. There are reports that Wagner troops were greeted with food and water by the public, while police returning tonight have been greeted with protests. In the meantime, Ukraine’s counteroffensive has been progressing, and made several advances today, including into territory that had been held by Russia since 2014. I wouldn’t mind betting that Ukrainian psy-ops will be able to create havok with the divisions opened up by today’s events too.

Reports that some Wagner troops are really not happy that Prigozhin backed off. We’re one internal mutiny in Wagner from a reenactment of The Rock.

Assuming the audio clip is genuine, it’ll be interesting what Prigozhin was offered or threatened with to get him to turn around. Also how long Prigozhin survives after this.

Claims by Lukashenko that Belarus has negotiated a ceasefire, and an apparent voice message from Prigozhin that they’re turning back from Moscow.

Looks more like being knocked off a viaduct just at the moment.

6 Russian helicopters visually confirmed downed by Wagner now, including a KA-52 Several unconfirmed reports that Russian troops are being pulled back from Ukraine to fight against Wagner.

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3727224-ukrainian-forces-take-control-of-several-positions-near-krasnohorivka-which-russia-held-since-2014.html

An air force needs a lot of people to be functional beyond the pilots, as well as extremely robust logistics support. Are there enough people loyal enough to Putin to keep an air force running and willing to target Russians? Are they still being supplied with fuel and ammo? Not to mention that having already downed Russian helicopters and a plane, Wagner have demonstrated they have some AA assets.

Who knew that a three day march on the Capital and the seat of power was actually feasible for Russian forces.

Putin and the Russian leadership apparently fleeing Moscow judging by air traffic. Looks like there are some elements of Belarus’ military trying to kick things off in a similar way in Belarus. Seems likely Lukashenko fled to Turkey soon after things kicked off in Russia too.

Reports that the Russian Air Force are now targeting the Wagner convoy heading towards Moscow. Also reports that Wagner has responded to Putin’s speech this morning by claiming that Russia will have a new president soon. Doesn’t seem like this has much chance of being resolved any time soon.

No, that’s just losses inflicted by Ukraine, it doesn’t include friendly fire incidents or accidents either.

The enemy of my enemy is my enemy’s enemy. Wagner isn’t exactly an entity that Ukraine would be wanting to make peace with or wanting to ally with, but their recent rhetoric about the separatist regions in 2014 has been far more aligned with Ukraine’s view than Russia’s, and all the time they’re opposing Russia it’s beneficial to Ukraine. Right now, it’s not entirely clear who’s going to come out on top, for any Russian army troops coming up against Wagner, siding with Wagner or opposing Wagner is more dangerous than doing nothing, and that’s paralysing Russia for the moment. There are early indications Ukraine are already taking advantage of that, with unconfirmed reports of making gains in Bakhmut and other areas of the front. Even if Wagner quickly reestablish supply lines to the Eastern front through Rostov, just their own forces being occupied with their coup, and the resources needed to oppose them are an huge drain on resources that aren’t opposing Ukraine. How this plays out and how quickly it plays out will decide just how disruptive it is to Russia’s war effort. One (distant) possibility is that Putin decides to quickly get rid of Shoigu and Gerasimov, appeasing Prigozhin, but that seems unlikely considering Wagner have already destroyed three Russian helicopters overnight, Wagner are already being labelled as traitors, and doing so would make Putin look incredibly weak. Another is that Russia gets past its current paralysis and uses overwhelming force (or attempts to) to take out Wagner, but that would severely weaken Russia’s army, and the vast majority of Wagner would no longer be a Russian asset. This would likely lead to an extended stalemate with Wagner troops defending Rostov in a similar manner to Bakhmut. Prigozhin changing his mind and realigning with Russia seems unlikely at this point. Wagner turning on Prigozhin and realigning with Russia similarly seems unlikely at this point. Wagner succeeding with the coup, taking control of the military, would similarly likely incur severe losses for both Russian forces and Wagner, even if there were widespread bloodless surrender and defection, it would also make Putin look even weaker. Prigozhin being in charge of Russia’s military, however, would be unpredictable. Despite recent rhetoric that Putin was deceived into invading Ukraine based on lies about Ukraine attacking the separatist regions, Prigozhin being in charge of the Russian Armed forces would likely be more effective than their current leadership. Wagner being in charge of Russia’s nuclear arsenal would also be unpredictable. All in all, it doesn’t seem like there are any good options for Putin here.

Seems very much confirmed by several sources, Prigozhin himself there. They’re currently in control of the command, control, and logistics hub overseeing and supplying the entire eastern front in Ukraine. It’s difficult to overstate the effect this will likely have on Russia’s troops in Eastern Ukraine… supply, reinforcement, morale, not to mention likely being needed to repel the coup attempt.

If that’s verified, that’s an extremely significant military asset that Wagner have gained control of.

As-yet unverified footage starting to emerge of Wagner fighting near Rostov, Wagner are claiming to have downed a helicopter that fired on them.

Oh well, I didn’t need sleep anyway.

Purely speculation, but I’m wondering if something has happened to Putin to kick this all off.

Top ranking Russian generals being dragged away from ‘refreshments’ into fatigues to try and stop Russians from invading Russia is towards the more unusual end of the spectrum for a Friday night.