Jimmy_D

Video going around reportedly showing military vehicles on the streets of Moscow. Unconfirmed reports that border guards aren’t opposing the Wagner troops crossing into Russia.

I guess one other option is that Ukraine have hired Wagner? (Only 99.9% joking with that )

Russia currently the second strongest army in Russia?

If it’s actually all fabricated for the purpose of something else, they appear to be REALLY committing to it. It’s starting to appear that it’s actually exactly what it appears to be. The next few hours and days will be interesting as to how it plays out and what turns out to be genuine. In the meantime Ukraine will still be carrying on with their own actions based on any opportunities that are presented, so ultimately any attempt at deception would be unlikely to help Russia much anyway.

Several different events converging today. Bipartisan announcement by the US that blowing the Nuclear Power Plant would result in NATO’s Article 5 being invoked. Putin appearing in two ‘live’ broadcasts on Russian TV in two different places at the same time. Claims by Prigozhin that Wagner was shelled with huge losses by Russian troops. Claims by Russian sources that the Russian army has been tasked with detaining/killing Prigozhin. Claims by Prigozhin that they’re in effect declaring war on the Russian Army. Claims by Russian sources that Wagner troops opened fire on Russian Army troops on the outskirts of Bakhmut. Claims by Russian sources that a criminal case has been opened against Prigozhin for calling for an armed rebellion. Unclear so far the accuracy and exact intentions behind the Prigozhin statements, but it doesn’t seem likely that it would lead to a positive development for Russia. It’s possible it’s a big hairy story designed to distract from the setbacks Russia have had recently, it’s possible it’s a prelude to being an excuse for withdrawing or falling back, it’s possible it’s a prelude to another round of mobilisation, it’s possible it’s exactly as it appears, or could be something else entirely.

If this is actually what’s happening as it’s said… bloody hell.

Pretty tragic all round. Sounds like this must have happened soon after the dive started. I guess there’s some small solace in that it would have been almost instant, and for the people that have been involved in the search that there’s absolutely nothing they could have done differently. RIP

That there’s footage almost hides how unbelievable it is that it’s happening. Imagine the USA had invaded Mexico last year, had stalled to the point of being pushed back, and now had resorted to dragging Sherman tanks out of museums, loading them up with explosives, before using them as VBIEDs.

Well, I do know for certain their objectives didn’t include more than doubling their border with NATO, reinforcing NATO countries’ commitment to NATO so as to be ironclad, losing their reputation as the second strongest military on the planet, and permanently losing half of the biggest customers for their biggest export.

Well, it started with ‘defending’ ‘separatists’ in Eastern Ukraine, then it was a few days to capture Kyiv, then it was combating NATO expansion, then it was defeating Nazism, then attempting to take Kyiv was a feint, then it was defeating Satanism, then capturing Kharkiv was a distraction tactic that they gave back as a goodwill gesture, then it was wiping out Ukraine as a nation because it doesn’t really exist, then capturing Kherson was a feint, and then capturing Bakhmut was a nine-month operation. I’ve probably missed one or a few in there.

Damn, have they changed again this week?

Well, they might want to actually start using it then, considering they hold less territory now than they did a year ago.

Probably holding it all back in reserve for when they run out of T-54s and Mosin-Nagant rifles.

Three more KA-52s reported as downed in the last 24 hours, on top of two confirmed since the counteroffensive started. There’s (very) unconfirmed speculation that Starstreak II have been supplied specifically to counter them, mostly based on it being one of the few systems that would have the range and anti-EW features to make it capable of doing so.

If that’s the metric they’re using, is there even any Russian equipment left? Certainly get the impression that the vast majority they’re using is Iranian, North Korean, or old enough that it was Soviet.

You keep digging out the same strawman argument about Russia running out of missiles. No one’s claimed they’ve completely run out. It’s also the case that they don’t have an unlimited supply. The numbers of cruise missiles they send are tiny compared to a few months ago. That combined with Ukraine’s increasingly comprehensive air defence has vastly reduced Russia’s ability to cause destruction with them.

Blimey, you really do love using weak false equivalence all the time don’t you? Still, at least we haven’t seen half the British tanks Ukraine are using destroyed in one weekend eh? In any case, it’s not the merit of the viewpoints, or lack thereof, from that blog that was funny, it was the fact that JB was either completely disingenuous or completely ****witted to claim it’s neutral.

If you think that’s neutral, I think we might be getting to the root of your issues with reality.

Don’t you need to go and try to fend off a Challenger II with a shovel or something?

There’s visual confirmation of at least 33 KA-52s being downed already, with an estimated upper limit of 100 that Russia have serviceable. That upper limit has probably been cut significantly by sanctions affecting Russia’s ability to maintain them, especially with constant combat usage. Ukraine is constantly getting new AA equipment, especially recently, as well as Sparrow AAMs that would be an option. On top of that Storm Shadows may well be an option on their base of operations. They’re one of Russia’s stronger assets, but not one that they can use with impunity.

Reportedly the crew survived, and the tank has been recovered and repaired already, but yes, Ukraine are making a huge sacrifice to protect and reclaim their home. They're against an army that, only two years ago, was thought to be second only to the US Army. Not everything will go their way. The perception of how things are going will be skewed by Russia tending to be far louder and far less honest about developments than Ukraine's leadership, as was seen in the battle to liberate Kherson, but even with that, it's so far been reports of Ukraine being slowed by higher than expected resistance in some areas, rather than being stopped or repelled.

Russia don’t even have the spare resources to prevent their own territory being occupied by a tiny raiding force at the moment. Most accounts are optimistic about Ukraine’s chances, and Russian sources are certainly pessimistic about Russia’s chances of preventing the counteroffensive. Storm Shadow missiles have had a massive impact on Russian logistics, and the response that Russia has been forced to adopt is causing issues for them too. Meanwhile Ukraine’s initial recon-in-force probing attacks are turning out to be strong enough to liberate territory. That’s without any of the NATO trained divisions with NATO tanks being committed yet. The front lines might have been relatively static for a while, but the balance of power certainly hasn’t been static, and it’s certainly not a stalemate. The balance of power will continue to tilt further as well, Ukraine has F16s on the way, and next seems to be growing support for further extreme long range missiles and artillery.

And of course Russia are already trying to blame Ukraine. Never mind that an airstrike causing this has already been ruled out, the water level of the dam (controlled by Russia) was raised to a record level just before this happened, and Russia were seen mining the dam months ago. Also, look at the difference between Kherson and Bakhmut after the battles for each for the difference in ideology. Looks like it's yet another example of short sighted temper and spite by Russia. Likely an attempt to make crossing the Dniper more difficult to cross and divert Ukrainian resources to the rescue efforts, as well as change the narrative if they thought that Ukraine's counter-offensive would be linked to D-Day. The fact that it's a single terrorist act among the worst this century is just par for the course at this point for Russia. They also just flooded the majority of their own front lines around Kherson, pushing back their own shelling range, and as well as that, cut off the fresh water supply to Crimea. That there are some military benefits to Ukraine from this will likely form the basis of Russian disinformation about this, but it also shows the sort of state Russia's military must be in, that they're willing to resort to such desperate measures for such short term 'gains'. It appears they're just trying to cause as much damage and destruction as possible for when it's back in Ukraine's hands.

Deserved win for City!