Jimmy_D

Blimey, you really do love using weak false equivalence all the time don’t you? Still, at least we haven’t seen half the British tanks Ukraine are using destroyed in one weekend eh? In any case, it’s not the merit of the viewpoints, or lack thereof, from that blog that was funny, it was the fact that JB was either completely disingenuous or completely ****witted to claim it’s neutral.

If you think that’s neutral, I think we might be getting to the root of your issues with reality.

Don’t you need to go and try to fend off a Challenger II with a shovel or something?

There’s visual confirmation of at least 33 KA-52s being downed already, with an estimated upper limit of 100 that Russia have serviceable. That upper limit has probably been cut significantly by sanctions affecting Russia’s ability to maintain them, especially with constant combat usage. Ukraine is constantly getting new AA equipment, especially recently, as well as Sparrow AAMs that would be an option. On top of that Storm Shadows may well be an option on their base of operations. They’re one of Russia’s stronger assets, but not one that they can use with impunity.

Reportedly the crew survived, and the tank has been recovered and repaired already, but yes, Ukraine are making a huge sacrifice to protect and reclaim their home. They're against an army that, only two years ago, was thought to be second only to the US Army. Not everything will go their way. The perception of how things are going will be skewed by Russia tending to be far louder and far less honest about developments than Ukraine's leadership, as was seen in the battle to liberate Kherson, but even with that, it's so far been reports of Ukraine being slowed by higher than expected resistance in some areas, rather than being stopped or repelled.

Russia don’t even have the spare resources to prevent their own territory being occupied by a tiny raiding force at the moment. Most accounts are optimistic about Ukraine’s chances, and Russian sources are certainly pessimistic about Russia’s chances of preventing the counteroffensive. Storm Shadow missiles have had a massive impact on Russian logistics, and the response that Russia has been forced to adopt is causing issues for them too. Meanwhile Ukraine’s initial recon-in-force probing attacks are turning out to be strong enough to liberate territory. That’s without any of the NATO trained divisions with NATO tanks being committed yet. The front lines might have been relatively static for a while, but the balance of power certainly hasn’t been static, and it’s certainly not a stalemate. The balance of power will continue to tilt further as well, Ukraine has F16s on the way, and next seems to be growing support for further extreme long range missiles and artillery.

And of course Russia are already trying to blame Ukraine. Never mind that an airstrike causing this has already been ruled out, the water level of the dam (controlled by Russia) was raised to a record level just before this happened, and Russia were seen mining the dam months ago. Also, look at the difference between Kherson and Bakhmut after the battles for each for the difference in ideology. Looks like it's yet another example of short sighted temper and spite by Russia. Likely an attempt to make crossing the Dniper more difficult to cross and divert Ukrainian resources to the rescue efforts, as well as change the narrative if they thought that Ukraine's counter-offensive would be linked to D-Day. The fact that it's a single terrorist act among the worst this century is just par for the course at this point for Russia. They also just flooded the majority of their own front lines around Kherson, pushing back their own shelling range, and as well as that, cut off the fresh water supply to Crimea. That there are some military benefits to Ukraine from this will likely form the basis of Russian disinformation about this, but it also shows the sort of state Russia's military must be in, that they're willing to resort to such desperate measures for such short term 'gains'. It appears they're just trying to cause as much damage and destruction as possible for when it's back in Ukraine's hands.

Deserved win for City!

City getting shafted here. They’re good enough to win regardless, hopefully they do.

Four possibilities as far as I can see. Ukraine, Russian partisans that don’t agree with the war, Russian politics that don’t agree with, or want to discredit Putin, or Russian false flag. Ukraine, main benefit would probably be to try and get Russia to relocate air defence away from Ukraine, and possibly further exhaust their stock of cruise missiles ahead of the counteroffensive. Also creates political doubt and possibly instability around Putin, possibly gets seen as the consequence of Russia hammering Kyiv. Main risks would be alienating Western support, even with plausibly deniability, that’s one hell of a risk to be taking, risk reward doesn’t add up for me, but can see it may have been tempting. Not impossible I guess, especially as using extremely low yield ordinance could be passed off as acceptable and more sending a message. Russian partisans against the war, main benefit would be to possibly create political instability and hasten Putin going. Risks would be being sent to a gulag if caught, and having the opposite effect of causing Russian conscription to expand their war effort. Again risk reward doesn’t add up, and the means to do it are less likely for this possibility. Depends how far the Russian Free Legion et al actually got, whether they’re still operating unopposed in Russia, and how widespread the support actually is among Russians. Putin rivals (possibly Wagner or inner circle starting to splinter), main benefit again creating political instability and creating the conditions for a PMC to start a coup. Main risks would be having to buy a bungalow and start drinking coffee instead of tea with a very low chance of success. Russian false flag, main benefits would be attempting to erode support for Ukraine and/or quell domestic dissent against the war while motivating people to support the war effort. Main risks would be that it makes Russia, and especially Putin look weak to the people. Russia’s response has been… interesting… They’ve not used it to try to escalate. Despite Moscow itself actually coming under attack, a nuclear response hasn’t been threatened or even alluded to, just that Russia reserves the right to respond in kind. After three days of Kyiv being hit with missile and drone attacks, that seems underwhelming to say the least. Instead the focus seems to be on avoiding panic among Russians. None of these options are screaming out as being the only obvious answer. Russia’s response perhaps gives a clue, they’ve not reacted to take advantage of the most obvious benefits to them of either it being Ukraine, or a false flag (not yet at least). My bet would go on it being Russian partisans that haven’t necessarily thought through what they’re doing fully, but like I said, no answer is completely obvious here.

Not that it’ll happen, but would be quite funny if Everton got a points deduction for the pitch invasion…

Well that was actually fun to watch! Been a while since I came away from a game feeling like that…

Hell of a story for Luton, especially with Pelly Ruddock Mpanzu following them all the way up through from non-league. Sounds like a story from a football manager save.

What a set of regulation penalties that was. Into sudden death.

Extra time then. It’ll only change the entire future course of both clubs either way. No pressure!

1-1 Anyone’s game now!

Coventry far more in the game this half, time must be ticking incredibly slowly for Luton.

What a goal! Deserved lead for Luton.

Luton definitely getting the upper hand in the play-off final so far, not been able to take advantage of it yet though.

Dortmund equalise but it’s not enough, Bayern take the title on goal difference I guess? I don’t know off hand whether they use head to head record in Germany first.

Equaliser against Bayern, title back in Dortmund’s hands as things stand!

Shaping up to be a dramatic last day in Germany, Dortmund 2 points ahead after being 9 points behind Bayern at one point, looking to break a long streak of titles for Bayern, but Bayern currently 1-0 up with Dortmund 2-0 down and 35 mins left to save it.

Still no confirmation of whether that ship was sunk or not, but if it was, that’s one of their most advanced ships gone. Apparently it’s the Ivan Khurs, a spy/intelligence ship that’s got a lot of modern Western designed tech on it, they don’t have the ability to replace it or its capabilities, at all at the moment, let alone in a timeframe that will help them against Ukraine. They only have two ships of its class, and the other is in Russia’s Northern Fleet, unable to access the Black Sea due to Turkey’s control of the Bosporus Strait with the Montreux Convention.

Quite the dilemma for Russia here. Seems the separatists are digging in to extremely defensible positions and giving every indication they’re not going to leave. Occupied Russian territory is something that Putin can’t afford to ignore, it’s utterly toxic to him politically, but considering the time and resources they needed to sink into being able to claim Bakhmut was occupied, it’s likely to require resources that Russia won’t want to divert, considering the threat of Ukraine having intelligence of where that’s being diverted from, and Ukraine having the resources now to take advantage of that. At the same time, while they’re not officially working for or with Ukraine, any air forces that go near there will be within range of Ukraine air defence, and there won’t be any hesitation in taking the opportunity to hit Russian air assets. (Nor can Ukraine afford to ignore armed Russian air assets near their border, considering the devastation they’ve caused to Ukraine’s civilians.) Russia don’t seem to have any good options available to them just at the moment.