CanadaSaint

Watching our sluggish transfer activity as we get closer to the end of the window, I keep thinking about two possible explanations for the apparent lack of progress. The first is that, while we’re genuinely constrained by some FFP factors, we have a significant budget and some quality targets identified in known areas of need, and there’s a lot of progress being made behind the scenes. However, for those plans to come to fruition needs some dominoes to fall – some of which are outside the club. However, a big domino for us is selling KWP at a decent price; I don’t think we’d have spent £6 million on Sugawara if we were planning on keeping him. Bella-Kotchap, Sulemana and Alcaraz could also be key dominoes, or they might be integral to Martin's plans; he's keeping his cards close on those three, so we just don't know. That’s all completely normal at this time of year. As fans we want things to happen NOW but we underestimate the complexities involved and we don't know the different permutations they are considering. The second explanation is much more troubling. It’s that Sports Republic views being a “yoyo club” as a good business model as long as they don’t spend big money on players who could turn into millstones if we were relegated (as we did in 2022-23). That would be a hell of a high-risk strategy – especially with their spotty history in the transfer market, the club's reluctance to give the best Academy products a decent chance, and the ongoing debate surrounding parachute payments. I’m not sure what to think any more, but I do know that there’s a massive aspirational difference between being a fan of a club and an investor in one.

Martin places a high premium on loyalty and contribution to dressing room cohesion. That’s certainly not a bad thing – especially when we reflect on the fractured dressing room shit-show of 2022-23. However, the danger is that you can overvalue loyalty. The danger magnifies greatly when we move back up to the PL. It’s one thing for Martin to plan on giving his “first on the team sheet” players like Stephens and Smallbone (and others) their chance at the PL level. It’s another thing entirely to assume they will cut it there when there’s little evidence that they can, and then base our player acquisitions on that assumption. That would leave us weak in key areas, with the window closed. Martin’s first challenge is to accept that reality overpowers loyalty when it comes to some of those players. His second challenge is to moderate his tactics so that we’re not so dependent on our keeper being the fulcrum for launching attacks - another Martin "principle". He was forced into that when Bazunu was injured, and we became much less reluctant to hit the long ball if things became too pressured back there. But we didn’t really have a long ball target to aim for because we weren’t built to play that way – mentally or personnel-wise. As much as I commend Martin for getting us back to the PL, I sure hope that there’s another “strong voice in the room” when these decisions are being made.

Absolutely! I’m feeling very queasy about the Downes situation, and the club has some hard thinking – and negotiating - to do. He fulfils a pivotal role – not just in Martin’s system but in the PL generally. We’re all aware of the stark difference in our results when Downes was not in the side, but many of us think that the 2022-23 season wouldn't have been as catastrophic if we’d been able to keep Romeu. It's crucial that we don't screw this up. We’ll only sign Downes if West Ham decide not to keep him, and they may not make that decision until late in the window, leaving us scrambling if they decide to take him back. Moreover, while I have no doubts about Flynn's ability, I have some reservations about his DURability. Romeu was built like a brick shithouse but Downes certainly isn’t, and he also dealt with some non-injury health issues this year. We've got wide attacking options coming our of our ying-yang but we're woefully shallow in this vital position. West Ham were counting on selling Paqueta for big money, but that’s unlikely to happen now. I think we need to take an aggressive position with them – make a reasonable offer and attach a deadline for acceptance. If we pull it off, sign a solid backup. If we don’t, start looking for a quality starting DM and a backup. Dithering over this could be disastrous, and we've certainly been known to dither.

Anyone else really impressed with how Ryan Fraser acquitted himself at LB? Better positionally than Manning, tenacious in his marking, and able to get himself forward but get back if we turned it over. I thought it was a bizarre change to bring Fraser AND the consistently-ineffective Sulemana on, and then play Fraser in a largely defensive role, but the second part worked really well. Big time credit to Martin for thinking outside of his locked mental box. So glad to se Stewart get back. He gives us the potential for a very different look up-front, and that's a hell of a curveball to throw at WBA's tactical planning ahead of the playoffs.

In an uncharacteristic moment of sincere introspection, Martin needs to contemplate the fact that he may well be the easiest manager to manage against in the Championship. Until he instills a second and much more direct element to our game plan - occasional early balls through or over the D, we'll just keep over-elaborating our brains out and falling victim to opposition comebacks. Mind-numbingly frustrating.

I'd feel a lot easier if Fraser replaced Sulemana. He's a more direct, offensive threat, but the main point is that he's far more aware of his defensive responsibilities. Bree's flank needs Fraser there, not Sulemana.

If I hear Martin say we weren’t brave enough again I’m going to fucking scream. We’re not brave because he coaches us to retain the ball with mindless over-elaboration. We spurn virtually every chance for a quick, incisive pass. We were done when Fraser went off - the most direct attacker we have.

It’s not an either/or though, is it? It’s more about having a second tool in the toolbox, whether or not the first one’s working. If opponents know we can bypass their press with a faster out-ball they won’t pile in and compress midfield space the way Hull did. For me, now that more teams are rumbling us, using that second option is the difference between promotion and missing out. Fraser is made for that tactic but the ball needs to be early and in front of him, not late and behind him.

Absolutely. But Fraser, the guy most likely to capitalize on the early out-ball, was sitting on the bench. One of their CDs was booked for taking out Fraser when we tried it in the second half. He’s perfect for that Plan B, but it seems that this kind of tactic is not encouraged.

The blueprint for our defensive vulnerability has been out there for most of the season. What makes it so troubling is the fact that we are so committed to playing out from the back, slowly and laboriously, with no Plan B, that opponents don’t fear our offence. It makes me think of this: https://youtu.be/T8XeDvKqI4E

We had to use three subs to rectify the consequences of a dreadful starting line-up, but it wasn’t just that. We had “Russball with no Option B” jammed up our own jacksies tonight. We couldn’t penetrate Hull’s press, and they compressed things so much that we were once caught offside three yards inside their half. But did we look for the early ball over the top to counter it? Did we ****. Until we develop that, Russball is far too easy to negate. This team’s strength is also its greatest achilles heel – Russ’s belief in himself. Tonight, and not for the first time, it crossed into arrogance. I don’t want to see Rothwell or Manning IN another starting line up, and I’d be happy enough if we don’t see Aribo and Fraser OUT of one.

Fraser is a great move if they’re trying to catch us offside near the halfway line. But they need to hit the early ball.

I’ve got a ton of time for Martin but this was an arrogant, “I know better” starting line up. Two players in key positions who should never be in it, and both of them have been torched.

The troubling takeaway from today is that Huddersfield, to their great credit, have given the rest of the division a blueprint for playing against us. When we don’t get the ball into the front third quickly enough, and our opponents do, we can really lose our way. But I have every confidence that Martin will make exactly that point. Again.

Squad depth and a manager willing to re-set are massive assets in this gruelling league, and I think we have the edge on our main rivals in both. But as much as I want us back in the PL, I’m really enjoying the proper football, proper fans, and down to earth sincerity we’re seeing every week.

Ridiculous. Not your post but those two touches. Once Brooks and KWP start dovetailing down that right side, some defenders are going to end up needing counselling. I have always loved width, and we have the opportunity to have both sides fizzing. My main frustration today was Manning - not because he was poor defensively (unusually, he wasn't) but because he kept pushing so far forward that he took away the space that Fraser needs for his game. And then he played it square or back for the most part. The change I was expecting - Brooks on, Che off, and Adam Armstrong to the middle - didn't happen. If we'd done that I think we might have bagged a couple more, but I think Martin is managing his squad really well with the fixture congestion in mind. Yes, we're looking at a boatload of games in a short space of time, but so are the other contenders. And that brings it back to squad depth, where we have the edge over pretty much all of them.

😂 Perhaps they've seen him doing it at Staplewood and it's cleared the Marchwood Bypass, but there are goalscoring chances around the D in every game.

I was super-happy to see Flynn Downes' goal. He's a cracking player but I've always thought that he's not great around the "D" on the edge of each penalty box - really key areas. He doesn't always defend it well at our end (and goals have resulted) and he doesn't always attack it well at their end (and chances have been lost). Today he really attacked it well for his goal. It's not somewhere to be taking a control touch because a defensive cavalry is coming out at you - just hit it first time. If it gets through, great, or it may get a lucky deflection. Flynn did exactly that today and I really hope we see more of it.

Overall a brilliant performance but with some important takeaways. Martin has shown that he's committed but not stubborn, so I hope he's reflecting on some areas for improvement. The Swansea goal that undeservedly got them back into the game when they were being pummelled came (again) from poor play by Manning - getting caught too high. My suspicion is that the apparent improvement in Manning's game recently has come not because he's playing better but because he has Fraser ahead of him; Fraser is such a threat that sides can't pressure our Manning side as easily. He remains a major defensive weakness. Jack Stephens is a great guy, and clearly well regarded in the dressing room, but he doesn't have a quick enough brain to fit into our "play it out from the back" style. In fact, it's frightening to see him trying to participate in it. With hindsight, Martin might have left THB out there for another 20 minutes and trusted him to avoid a second yellow. And, as committed as we are to playing that style, and as good as it is to watch, there is nothing to be gained and lots to be lost from overplaying at the back when we're 3-1 up but under pressure in the last 10 minutes - especially when THB isn't out there. It seems ridiculous to say that we dodged a bullet today, but we probably did.

There has been tons of discussion of Martin's "style" but he deserves huge praise for some longstanding Saints weaknesses that he has turned into strengths. He's getting the best out of his players - Bednarek is just one example of significant improvement (he's now passing the ball with vision and confidence), but there are many. I'd like to see how well he'd do with the many under-committed under-achievers we've had (like ABK); those types have been a characteristic of our club for the past three years or more. He doesn't play square pegs in round holes; everyone's role is suited to their skillset. The cohesion is quite remarkable, and the team-first ethos shines. All of them look like they really want to be here. He has actually developed a Plan B that we pull out in the middle of Plan A - the sudden delivery of a long ball over the top or through the channels; it makes it so much harder for teams to defend against Plan A (possession) when they have to keep an eye out for the early ball. We weren't doing this very much 8-10 games ago. He has instilled touchline to touchline width, and that opens space in the middle for quick one-touch passes. Acting on the recognition that Fraser needs the ball in front of him, so that he can run at a defence, has been transformative. And he seems to have built some steel into the squad. It will be interesting to see how we respond to some adversity, because we haven't seen much over this 20-game run.

It really helps our style to have touchline to touchline width, opening up gaps in the middle. And we’ve dug ourselves out of the goal difference hole we dug ourselves into. Fraser is everything I like in a player - skill-wise and character-wise.

Can you suggest an "experienced" keeper who is anywhere close to Bazunu for the fundamental element of our (currently very successful) style of playing out from the back? Sure, it was a big clanger and it could have cost us, but these things happen when the keeper's role is so pivotal in the team's set up. You might want to stay close to a defibrillator while you're watching because, sooner or later, Bazunu will let one in over his head from forty yards. That's another risk we willingly and knowingly take with out style. The league table, and our unbeaten run, show that we gain far more than we lose from it.

My sympathies on your loss, but - trust me - he'll be there; not just tomorrow but for every game from here on. I lost my Dad on Christmas Eve 1977, and the last thing he said to me was "How did Saints get on?" But he'd lost track and thought it was Boxing Day, so I told him that they won, and he smiled. Two days later Saints beat Cardiff, so thankfully the last thing I said to Dad wasn't a lie. We've watched every game together since the day he lifted me over a turnstile at the Dell when I was six, and that will last as long as I do. Merry Christmas to all.

Great decision by Martin to stop banging our head against a brick wall in the middle of the park, with Smallbone giving the ball away a lot, and start attacking them down the flanks. Giving Fraser the ball at his feet, pointing the right way, takes our incisiveness to another level. He has a directness that we really need. And I love how he's always got his head up - looking around for open players. It's no coincidence that he's recently set up three goals with his crosses, and it could - SHOULD - have been two more today.

Fraser can’t get a start because he doesn’t fit “the style” but he’s set up two of our last three goals with early crosses. And Edozie scored the third one from wide by not fart-arsing around and going backwards. Against Cardiff our possession number was down 12% but we created far more chances. But we’ll doubtless be back in our soporific, no end product possession vortex again on Saturday. Sincere questions for Martin. 1) How can you NOT see that we are much better when we’re more direct in the final third? 2) How many times must Manning give the ball away in terrible places before you leave him out?